Housing Wire

DECEMBER 29, 2021

Housing permits are growing and this is a good thing for the economy and construction jobs. While I have never been a housing construction boom guy because mature economies typically don’t have a construction boom, the fact that permits are keeping their uptrend is a big positive for the United States of America.

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Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2023

If there’s one sector of the economy that benefits from the very low levels of total housing inventory , it’s the homebuilders , but for a reason you might not think. If national housing inventory were back to normal, we would have 2 to 2.5 The builders will pull back on construction when the supply is 6.5

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Housing Wire

MAY 26, 2022

It’s an excellent time to discuss housing inventory. That’s not the case now because we have’t had a credit boom post-2010 as we did from 2002 to 2005. How can housing inventory be so low today when it skyrocketed back in 2009? I don’t believe housing inventory below 1.52 What is going on here? housing market.

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Housing Wire

OCTOBER 21, 2020

Housing inventory and prices. Given the low interest rates that are driving demand, housing inventory has become a rising concern. MBA Associate Vice President of Industry Analysis Joel Kan explained that current inventory rests at just a three-month supply. trillion in 2005.

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 2, 2020

The peak in this metric for this century was in 2005, and the real bottom was 2008. months, builders pull back, and new construction stalls. We saw this in 2018 and then spent the entire year of 2019 selling off the excess inventory. This level of inventory means new home sales are doing ok, not great.

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Housing Wire

APRIL 11, 2022

Given the current housing inventory crisis, it might surprise people to realize this: we built too many homes during the housing bubble years. Yes, but this is where my work is much different from other housing economists and why we need to think of inventory in a new, modern 21st-century mindset. Wait, what?

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 29, 2022

The housing market of 2002-2005 had four years of sales growth facilitated by credit. As we can see below, the purchase application data had four years of growth, peaking in 2005 and then collapsing. However, what isn’t identical is that we have not had a massive sales boom like we saw from 2002-2005. Housing inventory.

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Housing Wire

MARCH 29, 2022

Given the current housing inventory crisis, it might surprise people to realize this: we built too many homes during the housing bubble years. Yes, but this is where my work is much different from other housing economists and why we need to think of inventory in a new, modern 21st-century mindset. Wait, what?

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Housing Wire

MARCH 17, 2022

Census Bureau released their construction report for February, showing a positive trend in housing construction data with a lovely print in housing permits at 1,859,000 and housing starts at 1,769,000. So far, housing construction has done well during 2020-2022 considering the economic drama. Today, the U.S.

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Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 24, 2023

If sales are working from an elevated number, like what we saw from 2003-2005, it’s a different subject altogether. Homebuilders’ for-sale inventory and months’ supply The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of January was 439,000. However, this isn’t how inventory grows in America.

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Housing Wire

APRIL 25, 2023

You know, the one that says we have too much inventory and millions of vacant homes in the U.S.? According to this theory, we have more homes under construction than any time in history. months and above, the builders will pull back on construction. 267,000 homes are under construction, still. percent (±15.2 percent (±12.7

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Housing Wire

JUNE 27, 2023

Some people prefer something other than the current active existing inventory. As we can see in the chart below, new home sales aren’t booming like what we saw at the peak of 2005 but are getting back to trend sales growth from the bottom we saw when rates got 5% in 2018. Now on to the report. This represents a supply of 6.7

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Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2022

Second, because of the downtrend in inventory since 2014 and the demand pick-up we will see in the years 2020-2024, we had a risk of home prices accelerating too much. As you can see below, the new home sales market from 2018-2022 doesn’t look like the housing market we had from 2002-2005. First, total home sales should be 6.2

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Housing Wire

JULY 26, 2022

This data line confirms what we all know to be the case: The housing market, at least as it relates to construction, is in a recession. We talked about this in March , and even last year, when I wrote about the problem with the housing construction boom premise. “I don’t expect a boom in housing construction.

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Housing Wire

APRIL 13, 2022

Seasonal inventory is about to rise, so let’s hope for the best. However, the demand curve of what we have in housing too doesn’t resemble the speculation demand curve of what we saw from 2002-to 2005. Housing peaked in 2005 and then declined for many years. Have more questions for Logan?

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Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 26, 2023

That’s right — for all the hype of massive housing inventory coming from the builders, today we sit here still trying to work back to pre-COVID-19 levels with just 76,000 completed homes ready to be moved. As we can see in the chart below, sales levels aren’t exactly booming like they were from 2002-2005. When supply is over 6.5

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Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 28, 2022

million level we saw in 2005. However, it does show that the builders are in a much better spot to deal with their massive supply, compared to the 2005-2008 period. They are good at selling their inventory much quicker than existing home sellers, who might still be stingy on prices. months are under construction, 1.86

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Robinson Appraisal Group

MARCH 22, 2018

Going into the spring market many parts of the United States are seeing the lack of inventory on the market waiting to see if the inventory will increase while we approach spring and summer, the busiest season of real estate. The vast majority of new construction is for move-up products vs. entry level homes.

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Housing Wire

JUNE 24, 2022

Census: For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply The seasonally?adjusted Five months of the supply are homes in construction. That is a high level, and two months of the supply hasn’t started construction yet, and a whopping 0.68 The builders will pull back on construction when the supply is 6.5 months are completed homes.

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Housing Wire

MAY 24, 2022

As you can see, sales levels were never elevated like what we saw from 2002-2005. This housing cycle is and will always be based on real demand, versus the credit boom we saw from 2002 to 2005. months and above, the builders will pull back on construction. However, this is much different than what we saw from 2002-to 2005.

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 5, 2023

The 2022 housing market was savagely unhealthy , with all-time lows in inventory leading to massive bidding wars and price spikes until the Fed put a screeching halt to all of it with rate hikes that resulted in the most significant one-year spike in mortgage rate history. Housing Inventory. Home price s. million in 2023. We are at 8.6

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Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 24, 2022

It gives an idea of what to expect for housing construction. months and above, the builders will pull back on construction. This stands in contrast to the existing home sales market, where higher mortgage rates can create more inventory and cool down price growth. From Census: The seasonally?adjusted When supply is 4.4

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Construction Housing Market Marketing Mortgage 404

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 17, 2022

For this reason, the number of housing units “under construction” is the largest ever recorded in history because they were taking so long to finish. Housing construction productivity has always been terrible compared to other sectors of our economy; I get that, as we still build homes with hammers and nails, not robots.

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Housing Wire

JULY 13, 2022

Looking at the housing market in the years 2020-2024, one risk i identified early on was that home prices could accelerate more in this period than we saw in the previous expansion if inventory channels broke to all-time lows. This problem is much different than the housing credit bubble of 2002-2005. NAR: Total Inventory.

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Housing Wire

AUGUST 16, 2022

Tuesday’s housing starts report clearly shows that homebuilders are going to be done with single-family construction until mortgage rates fall. If it wasn’t for solid rental demand boosting multifamily construction this year — 18% year to date —this data line would have looked much worse. Why do I call it a housing recession?

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Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 16, 2023

Last year we had monthly existing home sales collapse back to 2007 levels, except this time around, NAR has total inventory at 970,000 and not over 4 million. In an odd twist of fate, the delays due to COVID-19 are currently an infrastructure and jobs program for Americans in the construction industry. months of supply.

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Housing Wire

AUGUST 23, 2022

So for now, the builders will take their time with the homes under construction and make sure they offer enough incentives to unload the new home supply they’re dealing with. can’t have a credit sales boom like we saw from 2002-2005. This time, we have less production of homes and more multifamily construction. months and above.

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 23, 2022

It didn’t help the builders that they had a global pandemic and we still have many new homes either in construction or that haven’t been started yet. months 290,000 new homes are still under construction, about 5.5 The builders will pull back on construction when the supply is 6.5 Here is the breakdown of the 8.6

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Housing Wire

OCTOBER 19, 2022

As someone concerned about the housing inflation story since inventory channels broke to all-time lows in 2020, I am frustrated by this housing completion data. All housing inventory data points to the second factor. They do not care about inventory levels being near record lows in the existing home sales marketplace.

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Mortgage Construction Inventory Housing Market 529

Housing Wire

APRIL 18, 2023

As you can see in the chart below, this looks nothing like the housing peak in 2005 and the crash toward 2008. Currently, new home sales have been trending better as the builders are taking advantage of low existing inventory. However, because of the COVID-19 delays, we are still working through a backlog of homes under construction.

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 20, 2022

This is the reason construction workers still have jobs, and that backlog needs to be finished; this is a positive outcome. The bigger story here is that if we want to see mortgage rates fall, we need more rental units, and right now we have a massive backlog of 2-unit homes under construction — over 900,000. percent (±12.3

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 23, 2022

In 2005, when the housing bubble peaked in sales at around 1.4 From Census: For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October was 470,000. The builders will pull back on construction when the supply is 6.5 This represents a supply of 8.9 When supply is 4.3

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Construction Marketing Housing Market Mortgage 457

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 20, 2021

Also, the market we have today doesn’t look like the credit boom we saw from 2002-2005. I have never believed in the housing construction boom premise as mature economies don’t have construction booms with slowing population growth. In fact, a few months ago I talked about inventory falling again should be the concern going out.

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Housing Market Inventory Mortgage Marketing 543

Housing Wire

JANUARY 19, 2022

You always want to be skeptical of any housing starts data that comes in too strong or too negative from the trend, and we had some specific factors in this report that boosted multifamily construction. Some of the demand that we saw from 2002-2005 was facilitated by credit that no longer exists in the marketplace today. This is 17.2

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 19, 2022

Construction of single-family homes dropped 2.3% from November to 1.172 million units, the construction of multifamily units again posted a sizable increase of 13.7% 2021 was a strong year for construction.”. But while this is good news for new housing construction, homebuilders still have plenty of obstacles to overcome.

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Housing Wire

AUGUST 3, 2021

Home prices continue to increase as national inventory levels remain low heading into August. growth is the largest annual growth reported since 1979, as supply and demand pressures endure and construction costs continue to rise, said Frank Nothaft, CoreLogic’s chief economist. . Home prices increased 2.3% ” The 17.2%

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Housing Wire

APRIL 27, 2022

Even though multifamily construction has boosted housing starts recently, the slowdown in single-family purchases hasn’t been anything too dramatic yet. The one thing housing has going for it now is that we don’t have the speculative booming demand as we saw from 2002 to 2005. percent (±12.9 percent (±11.3 When supply is 4.4

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Construction Buyers Housing Market Inventory 370