Housing Wire

JUNE 2, 2022

I always try to focus people on the total inventory data until we get inventory back into a range of 1.52-1.93 HousingWire: To add to that, since housing is in an inventory shortage, the market has changed, so the good news is inventory is growing. What levels should we be hoping for? Then this happened. Ghost Supply 2.2

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Housing Wire

OCTOBER 8, 2021

Homes remain much more affordable in 2021 than they were during the home price runup in 2005 and 2006, but the seven-month trend in deteriorating affordability is starting to gradually slow demand. Renovated Inventory to the Rescue. Top Markets for Renovated Inventory. Homebuyers Losing Heart. Home sales in August decreased 1.5%

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Renovations Inventory Marketing Property Taxes 543

Housing Wire

AUGUST 30, 2022

While the growth rate is cooling monthly, we are still in a savagely unhhealthy housing market trying to get national inventory levels back to pre-COVID-19 levels. Housing inventory issue with no booming demand. However, we haven’t had a credit sales boom like the one we saw from 2002-2005. million listings.

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Inventory New Listings Law Housing Market 384

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 31, 2022

One of the unsung heroes of the most prolonged economic and job expansion ever recorded in history was the passing of the 2005 Bankruptcy Reform Act and the 2010 qualified mortgage rule under Dodd-Frank. As we can see below, the bankruptcy levels were extremely high before the bankruptcy law was passed in 2005. Today, we are at 1.25

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 9, 2022

But I need to explain why this level has more in common with 2014 housing data than the credit stress markets of 2005-2008, and why you should care. Inventory levels broke to all-time lows and thus created massive housing inflation quickly, which broke my model. Traditionally, inventory levels have been between 2 million to 2.5

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New Listings Inventory Housing Market Sellers 490

Housing Wire

JUNE 28, 2022

Since 2014, we’ve not seen the credit housing boom that we saw from 2002-2005. The housing market can’t replicate the type of massive credit expansion we saw from 2002-2005, so the price-growth story has more to do with inventory collapsing to all-time lows. For some time now, I have been focusing on that 1.52-1.93

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Housing Market Marketing Inventory Investors 458

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 7, 2022

As you can see from the chart above, the last several years have not had the FOMO (fear of missing out) housing credit boom we saw from 2002-2005. What I mean by a credit bust is that after the housing bubble burst in 2005 into 2006, we saw a massive increase in supply. Total inventory levels. NAR: Total Inventory levels 1.22

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 21, 2022

In addition, this is the fourth straight month of inventory declining, while days on the market are growingl! Plus, available housing inventory remains near historic lows.” Housing inventory. Today, inventory is almost 900,000 active listings below the lowest level of the four-decade average between 2 million and 2.5

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Inventory New Listings Housing Market Sellers 524

Housing Wire

JULY 6, 2022

This typically happens in a recession, however, the notion that credit lending in America will collapse as it did from 2005 to 2008 couldn’t be more incorrect, as we haven’t had a credit boom in the period between 2008-2022. Look, no massive foreclosures are happening to send inventory skyrocketing. Why is this? Far from the 10.4

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Housing Wire

MAY 18, 2023

We don’t have a massive credit boom as purchase application data is at historical lows; we haven’t had the same run-up in credit as we saw from 2002-2005. If we had a massive credit boom-to-bust, inventory would have skyrocketed in 2022. NAR Total Inventory Data going back to 1982. million, up from 1.03 million last year.

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 8, 2023

Foreclosures and bankruptcy data One of the most prominent credit stress data lines I have ever seen came during 2005-2008. Starting in 2005, four years before the Great Recession started, we saw significant credit stress built up in the system, all while the economy was expanding. Of course, this is always something to keep an eye on.

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Housing Wire

MARCH 18, 2022

Inventory has broken to all-time lows, but it doesn’t look like the year-over-year data will be positive at all this year unless demand softens up. NAR Research : Unsold inventory sits at a 1.7-month NAR Research : Unsold inventory sits at a 1.7-month However, negative year-over-year inventory is not what we want to see.

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Housing Market Marketing Inventory Sellers 542

Housing Wire

MARCH 31, 2022

Especially in a year when inventory has crashed to all-time lows and demand for those houses is still so high. I’m going to take their talking points and explain in detail why this isn’t the housing bubble of 2002-2005. “ This got smashed in two years, and inventory levels broke to all-time lows this year.

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Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 15, 2024

years in 2005, according to a Redfin analysis of median U.S. Homeowner tenure is projected to remain flat, but a larger share of homeowners remaining in place is also contributing to an inventory shortage, according to the report. years last year, up from 6.5 homeowner tenure by year using county records.

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Property Taxes Insurance Construction Inventory 464

Housing Wire

APRIL 20, 2022

However, the real story of 2022 is that the savagely unhealthy housing market continues as inventory is still lower than last year, sending home prices growth into double digits again. Housing demand has been stable for the past few years; we have never had a credit boom in demand since 2002-2005. Unsold inventory sits at a 2.0-month

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Housing Market Marketing Inventory Mortgage 490

Housing Wire

JUNE 8, 2022

2012: What they said: Shadow inventory will cause prices to fall. The reality: Inventory broke down in 2012, and the monthly supply data got below 6.0 The “shadow inventory” was not an issue as it took years to get rid of the distressed supply from the housing bubble years. million of inventory is normal.

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Inventory Housing Market Marketing Mortgage 545

Housing Wire

MARCH 12, 2023

Weekly inventory fell by 6201 , and new listing data is down noticeably from last year, which was different than last week. Weekly housing inventory Here we go again; we still haven’t hit the elusive bottom for seasonal inventory, which makes this the third year in a row that the bottom in inventory will happen in March or beyond.

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Housing Wire

MARCH 31, 2021

Record-low inventory is pushing home-price growth at double the rate from a year ago, and even above the 10% growth rates seen in 2005,” Kan said. “The housing market is in desperate need of more inventory to cool price growth and preserve affordability. The FHA share of total mortgage applications decreased to 11.3%

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Housing Wire

OCTOBER 12, 2020

Housing data started to soften in 2005 after an overheated market. Here is another precedent: Back in 2012, our housing bear buddies kept insisting that the housing market had 4 million to 5 million homes in what they called shadow inventory. Shadow inventory refers to homes in foreclosure that banks are holding off the market.

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Inventory Housing Market Marketing Mortgage 545

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 28, 2020

No, this is not a new home sales housing bubble as we are far from total new home sales being where they were in 2005. The monthly supply of new homes was mostly higher every month in the previous expansion (2008-2019) than any period from 1996-2005. At that time, the new home sales sector got so bad that I put it in the penalty box.

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Inventory Buyers Mortgage Housing Market 521

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 8, 2022

This can lead to home prices getting out of control , especially when total inventory gets to all-time lows. The National Association of Realtors’ total Inventory data shows that historically we have between 2 to 2.5 million homes for sale, but in 2022 we got as low as 870,000 in total inventory.

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Inventory Law Housing Market Design 544

Housing Wire

MAY 19, 2022

This is something that I said would change the tone of housing, and we are seeing that result this year as sales decline and inventory picks up. We were told that population growth is slowing, we were told that Americans would panic sell and that massive inventory would hit the marketplace once rates got to 4%. Wait, what? I use the 1.52-1.93

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Housing Market Marketing Inventory Realtors 524

Housing Wire

AUGUST 19, 2021

According to Sam Khater, chief economist at Freddie Mac, as with other parts of the economy, low housing inventory and price increases have dampened sales. The low inventory is not likely to substantially improve soon, although a percent increase from historically low levels is expected. This week, the U.S.

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Mortgage Supply Chain Inventory Finance 508

Housing Wire

APRIL 1, 2021

Record-low inventory is pushing home-price growth at double the rate from a year ago, and even above the 10% growth rates seen in 2005,” Kan said. The housing market is in desperate need of more inventory to cool price growth and preserve affordability.

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Mortgage Inventory Housing Market Marketing 421

Housing Wire

JULY 1, 2021

“Although low and stable mortgage rates have kept the housing market booming over recent months, a deterioration in affordability and for-sale inventory has led to a market slowdown.”. Borrowers are still shopping at a feverish pace, at least by historic standards.

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Mortgage Housing Market Realtors Inventory 500

Housing Wire

JUNE 30, 2021

Pending home sales reached its highest mark for the month of May since 2005, up 8% from the previous month of April as low inventory continues driving buyers to snatch up available real estate. “Buyers are still lining up a feverish pace,” Yun said. ” Contract signings on new homes increased 13.1% year over year.

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Supply Chain Inventory Buyers Realtors 421

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 13, 2023

Buyers offer higher down payments to offset steep borrowing costs Overall, the typical down payment was 8% for first-time buyers and 19% for repeat buyers — the highest share since 1997 and 2005, respectively. Meanwhile, in September, one-third of U.S. home purchases were all-cash transactions, compared to 29.5%

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Real Estate Agent Real Estate Agents Sellers 385

Housing Wire

JANUARY 12, 2022

Early in 2021, when I was talking about how people should worry about home prices overheating, I had a glimmer of hope that maybe toward the end of 2021 we would be spared another seasonal collapse of inventory. Inventory always falls in the fall and winter, but I hoped it wouldn’t be a repeat of 2020.

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Inventory Mortgage Housing Market Marketing 538

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 23, 2020

Construction continued to play catch-up also as Novembers new-home inventory rose nearly 14% to a 4.1-month a record low in the series dating back to 1963, while the share of homes sold-but-not-yet-started was at a level only seen during the housing bubble in 2005.” The West came in second at a 17.3%

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Construction Inventory Buyers Marketing 331

Housing Wire

MAY 6, 2022

We haven’t seen that yet; the -12% YoY decline is a noticeable weakness, but nothing too dramatic yet like what we saw from 2005-to 2008. HousingWire: Will inventory finally break the streak and be positive year over year? This data line is trend survey data.

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Inventory Housing Market Marketing Construction 352

Housing Wire

MAY 9, 2022

I’ve tried to stress that we need to worry about home prices getting overheated in 2020-2024, but not because of some massive credit boom like we saw from 2002 to 2005. from 2002-to 2005, which led to forced credit selling. This should not change. had to deal with its credit bust. had to deal with its credit bust.

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Buyers Housing Market Mortgage Marketing 530

Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2023

If there’s one sector of the economy that benefits from the very low levels of total housing inventory , it’s the homebuilders , but for a reason you might not think. If national housing inventory were back to normal, we would have 2 to 2.5 That will be a much better environment for the builders. his represents a supply of 8.2

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Inventory Housing Market Construction Marketing 542

Housing Wire

MAY 26, 2022

It’s an excellent time to discuss housing inventory. That’s not the case now because we have’t had a credit boom post-2010 as we did from 2002 to 2005. How can housing inventory be so low today when it skyrocketed back in 2009? I don’t believe housing inventory below 1.52 What is going on here? housing market.

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Inventory Housing Market Construction Marketing 515

Housing Wire

JULY 29, 2021

May’s 8% increase was the highest jump for that month since 2005, according to NAR. ” Ruben Gonzalez, Keller Williams chief economist, added that he believes absorption rates may slow in the coming months, allowing inventory to slowly climb back toward normal levels. Pending home sales in the South fell 3.0% from June 2020.

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Marketing Buyers Realtors Real Estate 441

Housing Wire

MARCH 28, 2022

The one thing that has happened in 2022 that has been worse is that national inventory levels have worsened in 2022 to start the year. Inventory has been falling for years. Logan Mohtashami: People know that I haven’t been a big fan of this housing market since inventory levels broke under 1.52

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Housing Market Marketing Supply Chain Inventory 340

Housing Wire

APRIL 20, 2023

months’ worth of housing inventory in the U.S. NAR: Total housing inventory registered at the end of March was 980,000 units, up 1.0% Unsold inventory sits at a 2.6-month Total housing inventory, while up year over year, is still near all-time lows, and monthly supply is also up year over year. We only have 2.6

Inventory 527

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 527

Housing Wire

APRIL 11, 2022

Given the current housing inventory crisis, it might surprise people to realize this: we built too many homes during the housing bubble years. Yes, but this is where my work is much different from other housing economists and why we need to think of inventory in a new, modern 21st-century mindset. Wait, what?

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Inventory Housing Market Marketing Modernization 504