Housing Wire

OCTOBER 19, 2022

As someone concerned about the housing inflation story since inventory channels broke to all-time lows in 2020, I am frustrated by this housing completion data. All housing inventory data points to the second factor. The new home sales market gets hit harder by higher mortgage rates than the existing home market.

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Mortgage Construction Inventory Housing Market 508

Housing Wire

JUNE 2, 2022

I always try to focus people on the total inventory data until we get inventory back into a range of 1.52-1.93 HousingWire: To add to that, since housing is in an inventory shortage, the market has changed, so the good news is inventory is growing. Months are homes under construction 0.8 Then this happened.

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Training Inventory Housing Market Real Estate Agent 403

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 29, 2022

The housing sector — especially real estate and mortgage — has seen significant layoffs , while the general economy will create more than 4 million jobs in 2022. Then we had the biggest mortgage rate shock in recent history and yet even with that, we will have over 5 million total home sales this year. Production falls. Home sales.

Housing Market 545

Housing Market Marketing Inventory Sellers 545

Housing Wire

APRIL 18, 2023

What is the best news for mortgage rates long-term? More supply of apartments coming on line will be good news for mortgage rates going forward. As you can see in the chart below, this looks nothing like the housing peak in 2005 and the crash toward 2008. This is key for mortgage rates looking out for years to come.

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Mortgage Construction Supply Chain Housing Market 499

Housing Wire

APRIL 13, 2022

Seasonal inventory is about to rise, so let’s hope for the best. However, the demand curve of what we have in housing too doesn’t resemble the speculation demand curve of what we saw from 2002-to 2005. Housing peaked in 2005 and then declined for many years. Have more questions for Logan?

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Housing Market Marketing Mortgage Inventory 415

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 26, 2023

New home sales missed estimates today but had three months of positive revisions, which continues the story of the builders managing the higher mortgage rate environment. However, higher mortgage rates make it harder and harder to pull some of those deals off. months, the builders will pause construction. When supply is over 6.5

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Inventory Construction Housing Market Marketing 464

Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2022

We finally got mortgage rates to rise, and for people like me who have been concerned about how unhealthy the housing market was last year — and it got a lot worse this year — it’s a blessing that was much needed. million line in the sand has been this: Home prices grow above that 23% level: check Mortgage rates spike higher: check.

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Mortgage Inventory Housing Market Construction 455

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 17, 2022

For this reason, the number of housing units “under construction” is the largest ever recorded in history because they were taking so long to finish. For the builders, they have a new problem: they had homes under contract and then mortgage rates jumped in the biggest fashion ever recorded in history.

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Contracts Construction Supply Chain Marketing 541

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 24, 2023

9 up until the early part of February as mortgage rates fell from 7.37% to 5.99%. To combat higher mortgage rates, builders have been cutting prices and buying down rates to move product. If sales are working from an elevated number, like what we saw from 2003-2005, it’s a different subject altogether.

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Inventory Construction Housing Market Mortgage 438

Housing Wire

AUGUST 23, 2022

Tuesday’s new home sales report missed expectations and had negative revisions, which isn’t surprising given this sector of our economy simply can’t handle higher mortgage rates. can’t have a credit sales boom like we saw from 2002-2005. This time, we have less production of homes and more multifamily construction.

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Construction Housing Market Sellers Marketing 370

Housing Wire

APRIL 25, 2023

You know, the one that says we have too much inventory and millions of vacant homes in the U.S.? According to this theory, we have more homes under construction than any time in history. months and above, the builders will pull back on construction. 267,000 homes are under construction, still. percent (±15.2 percent (±12.7

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Inventory Housing Market Construction Marketing 469

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 15, 2024

years in 2005, according to a Redfin analysis of median U.S. Older Americans also have financial incentives attached to staying in their homes, since 54% of the baby boomer cohort own their homes free and clear without making monthly mortgage payments. years last year, up from 6.5 homeowner tenure by year using county records.

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Property Taxes Insurance Construction Inventory 452

Housing Wire

JUNE 27, 2023

NAR total active listings data going back to 1982 : This explains why the builders and new homes are doing better than the existing home sales market, which deals with higher mortgage rates and low active listings. Some people prefer something other than the current active existing inventory. Now on to the report. When supply is 4.4-6.4

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Construction Inventory Marketing Buyers 490

Housing Wire

JULY 26, 2022

This data line confirms what we all know to be the case: The housing market, at least as it relates to construction, is in a recession. We talked about this in March , and even last year, when I wrote about the problem with the housing construction boom premise. “I don’t expect a boom in housing construction.

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Construction Housing Market Inventory Marketing 498

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 16, 2023

The truth is that if mortgage rates fell below 5.875% and kept going lower, everyone’s housing predictions would need to be revised this year because the builders can sell their homes with lower mortgage rates. This is why construction workers haven’t been laid off while other jobs in the housing market have been.

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Construction Housing Market Inventory Mortgage 486

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 28, 2022

We had a period this summer when mortgage rates moved from 6.25% back down to 5% and some of the new home sales activity picked up. million level we saw in 2005. However, it does show that the builders are in a much better spot to deal with their massive supply, compared to the 2005-2008 period. When supply is 4.4

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Construction Sellers Inventory Housing Market 464

Housing Wire

JULY 13, 2022

Looking at the housing market in the years 2020-2024, one risk i identified early on was that home prices could accelerate more in this period than we saw in the previous expansion if inventory channels broke to all-time lows. This problem is much different than the housing credit bubble of 2002-2005.

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Inventory Housing Market Mortgage Marketing 539

Housing Wire

JANUARY 19, 2022

Construction of single-family homes dropped 2.3% from November to 1.172 million units, the construction of multifamily units again posted a sizable increase of 13.7% 2021 was a strong year for construction.”. But while this is good news for new housing construction, homebuilders still have plenty of obstacles to overcome.

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Construction Housing Market Inventory Development 408

Housing Wire

MAY 24, 2022

A few months ago, I wrote that the new home sales sector is at risk because of rising mortgage rates. As you can see, sales levels were never elevated like what we saw from 2002-2005. This housing cycle is and will always be based on real demand, versus the credit boom we saw from 2002 to 2005. Slow and steady wins the race.

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Housing Market Inventory Construction Marketing 392

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 20, 2022

This is the reason construction workers still have jobs, and that backlog needs to be finished; this is a positive outcome. The bigger story here is that if we want to see mortgage rates fall, we need more rental units, and right now we have a massive backlog of 2-unit homes under construction — over 900,000. percent (±12.3

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Housing Market Marketing Construction Supply Chain 403

Housing Wire

JUNE 24, 2022

As you can see below, new home sales are still below the 2000 recession level, and we just had a significant spike in mortgage rates too. These monthly reports can be very wild, and I anticipate big swings in the reports until things calm down with mortgage rates. Census: For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply The seasonally?adjusted

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Inventory Construction Marketing Mortgage 446

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 21, 2020

At its Annual event Wednesday, Mortgage Bankers Association Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni forecast that interest rates could rise in the year to come, but that they will remain near all-time lows. The chart below shows interest rates for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will end this year at about 3% and could hit around 3.3%

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Mortgage Inventory Housing Market Construction 393

Housing Wire

JANUARY 5, 2023

The 2022 housing market was savagely unhealthy , with all-time lows in inventory leading to massive bidding wars and price spikes until the Fed put a screeching halt to all of it with rate hikes that resulted in the most significant one-year spike in mortgage rate history. Mortgage rates. Home price s.

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Housing Market Marketing Inventory New Listings 536

Housing Wire

APRIL 8, 2021

As we enter the second quarter of 2021, it’s time for the mortgage industry to reflect on the past 12 months and think about how to plan for the same period ahead. Low mortgage rates, driven by quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve helped fuel a boom in both mortgage refinancing and purchases, making 2020 the second-best year in U.S.

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Development Lending Mortgage Marketing 414

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 24, 2022

It gives an idea of what to expect for housing construction. months and above, the builders will pull back on construction. The real question is how much higher mortgage rates will bite the most sensitive sector to rates: new homes. The builders will pull back on construction growth if new homes sales start to head lower.

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Construction Housing Market Marketing Mortgage 387

Housing Wire

JUNE 30, 2021

Pending home sales reached its highest mark for the month of May since 2005, up 8% from the previous month of April as low inventory continues driving buyers to snatch up available real estate. ” Ruben Gonzalez, Keller Williams chief economist, added that he is “optimistic” new home construction will pick up.

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Supply Chain Inventory Buyers Realtors 414

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 23, 2020

Construction continued to play catch-up also as Novembers new-home inventory rose nearly 14% to a 4.1-month How the mortgage industry is working together to make housing more affordable. Every region experienced a dip in new-home sales, with the Midwest providing the starkest decline, down a whopping 43% month-over-month.

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Construction Inventory Buyers Marketing 309

Housing Wire

APRIL 27, 2022

That data shows how housing was still on pace to have another solid year before mortgage rates got over 5%. The housing world is much different at 5% plus mortgage rates versus the 3% mortgage world we had last year. They were simply doing what the marketplace allowed them to do with low inventory and low mortgage rates.

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Construction Buyers Housing Market Inventory 340

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 23, 2022

One of the realities of COVID-19 has been the lag to build homes in a business that requires stable mortgage rates because of the traditional time to complete a home. It didn’t help the builders that they had a global pandemic and we still have many new homes either in construction or that haven’t been started yet. months and above.

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Construction Housing Market Mortgage Sellers 350

Housing Wire

MARCH 28, 2022

However, since I had the possibility of the 10-year yield getting to 2.42% and 4% plus mortgage rates, I accounted for that in the range. The one thing that has happened in 2022 that has been worse is that national inventory levels have worsened in 2022 to start the year. Inventory has been falling for years.

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Housing Market Marketing Supply Chain Inventory 325

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 23, 2022

In 2005, when the housing bubble peaked in sales at around 1.4 From Census: For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October was 470,000. The builders will pull back on construction when the supply is 6.5 This represents a supply of 8.9 When supply is 4.3

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Construction Marketing Housing Market Mortgage 441

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 29, 2021

The housing market didn’t crash at all, in fact, more Americans bought homes with mortgages in 2021 than in 2020. mortgage rates, so on the mortgage rate side of the equation, it’s never been better. Housing permits are growing and this is a good thing for the economy and construction jobs. These households got sub-3.5%

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Housing Market Marketing Construction Mortgage 527

Housing Wire

MAY 6, 2022

So far this year, with the rise in mortgage rates, it is still trending better than I thought it would have with rates over 5%. We haven’t seen that yet; the -12% YoY decline is a noticeable weakness, but nothing too dramatic yet like what we saw from 2005-to 2008. After May, total volumes fall.

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Inventory Housing Market Marketing Construction 340

Housing Wire

JANUARY 19, 2022

You always want to be skeptical of any housing starts data that comes in too strong or too negative from the trend, and we had some specific factors in this report that boosted multifamily construction. Some of the demand that we saw from 2002-2005 was facilitated by credit that no longer exists in the marketplace today. This is 17.2

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Construction Housing Market Inventory Marketing 394

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 5, 2021

With the housing sector battling ongoing supply constraints , a loss of 3,000 jobs in construction employment may be a slight hiccup after 8 solid months of growth. But Mike Fratantoni, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association , said he expects construction to grow later in the year.

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 20, 2021

Even in the extreme conditions of COVID-19, my general premise on housing economics predicted that the two variables with the most influence — demographics and mortgage rates — would hold up the housing market. The 10-year yield and mortgage rates. That range dictated that mortgage rates would roughly stay between 3.5%-4.75%.

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Housing Market Inventory Mortgage Marketing 542

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 2, 2020

The peak in this metric for this century was in 2005, and the real bottom was 2008. Mortgage rates followed, which dampened demand. Plus, we have solid demographics and low mortgage rates. months, builders pull back, and new construction stalls. This level of inventory means new home sales are doing ok, not great.

Housing Market 545

Housing Market Marketing Inventory Design 545