Housing Wire

JUNE 2, 2022

One top question he addresses is how the industry is reacting to this savagely unhealthy housing market. HW+ Member: What’s the number one question you are getting from the real estate agent community on the economy and housing market? As we can see, it’s been a struggle to get inventory back into this range post-2020.

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Housing Wire

APRIL 13, 2022

This was the last thing we needed to see for the Housing Market , which went from unhealthy to savagely unhealthy. What I am hoping for is that higher rates create more days on the market, cool price growth down, and at some point this year, we stop being negative and be positive on a year-over-year basis.

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Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 26, 2023

That’s right — for all the hype of massive housing inventory coming from the builders, today we sit here still trying to work back to pre-COVID-19 levels with just 76,000 completed homes ready to be moved. As we can see in the chart below, sales levels aren’t exactly booming like they were from 2002-2005. When supply is 4.4-6.4

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 20, 2022

This is the reason construction workers still have jobs, and that backlog needs to be finished; this is a positive outcome. The bigger story here is that if we want to see mortgage rates fall, we need more rental units, and right now we have a massive backlog of 2-unit homes under construction — over 900,000. percent (±12.3

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 5, 2023

The 2022 housing market was savagely unhealthy , with all-time lows in inventory leading to massive bidding wars and price spikes until the Fed put a screeching halt to all of it with rate hikes that resulted in the most significant one-year spike in mortgage rate history. So where does all that drama leave us for 2023? Home price s.

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 17, 2022

For this reason, the number of housing units “under construction” is the largest ever recorded in history because they were taking so long to finish. Housing construction productivity has always been terrible compared to other sectors of our economy; I get that, as we still build homes with hammers and nails, not robots.

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Housing Wire

AUGUST 16, 2022

Tuesday’s housing starts report clearly shows that homebuilders are going to be done with single-family construction until mortgage rates fall. If it wasn’t for solid rental demand boosting multifamily construction this year — 18% year to date —this data line would have looked much worse. Why do I call it a housing recession?

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Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 24, 2023

Just like in the existing home sales market, when sales are low, anything positive on the rate side can move the market in a positive direction. If sales are working from an elevated number, like what we saw from 2003-2005, it’s a different subject altogether. However, this isn’t how inventory grows in America.

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Housing Wire

APRIL 25, 2023

You know, the one that says we have too much inventory and millions of vacant homes in the U.S.? According to this theory, we have more homes under construction than any time in history. In their haste, they miss the bigger picture of the housing market. The truth is, it’s not 2008 all over again. percent (±15.2

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Housing Wire

AUGUST 23, 2022

The housing market is in a recession, something that the homebuilders and the National Association of Realtors now agree with me on, as this recent CNBC clip shows. So for now, the builders will take their time with the homes under construction and make sure they offer enough incentives to unload the new home supply they’re dealing with.

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Housing Wire

JUNE 27, 2023

One group has the advantage here while the other doesn’t: The new home sales market is minuscule versus the existing one, and the builders sell their homes like a commodity. But a bigger story here is that the builders’ biggest competition isn’t other builders — it’s the number of existing homes on the market. When supply is 4.4-6.4

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Housing Wire

JULY 26, 2022

This data line confirms what we all know to be the case: The housing market, at least as it relates to construction, is in a recession. Since the summer of 2020, I have genuinely believed the housing market could change once the 10-year yield broke over 1.94%. “I don’t expect a boom in housing construction.

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Housing Wire

MARCH 28, 2022

The one thing that has happened in 2022 that has been worse is that national inventory levels have worsened in 2022 to start the year. Due to this reality, I have downgraded the housing market from unhealthy housing to a savagely unhealthy housing market. Inventory has been falling for years. months on a 3-month average.

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Housing Wire

OCTOBER 19, 2022

In June of this year, I raised the fifth recession red flag , putting the housing market in a traditional recession where sales, incomes, jobs, and production would be falling, which is happening now. All housing inventory data points to the second factor. NAR total Inventory data: Traditionally, we have 2 million to 2.5

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 29, 2021

A bullish housing market. The housing market didn’t crash at all, in fact, more Americans bought homes with mortgages in 2021 than in 2020. Housing permits are growing and this is a good thing for the economy and construction jobs. What a year 2021 has been. We started the year with many pundits saying that the U.S.

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Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 15, 2024

years in 2005, according to a Redfin analysis of median U.S. housing market for multiple reasons, Redfin said. Homeowner tenure is projected to remain flat, but a larger share of homeowners remaining in place is also contributing to an inventory shortage, according to the report. years last year, up from 6.5

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Housing Wire

MAY 24, 2022

Going back to the summer of 2020, the one factor that I said could change the housing market was the 10-year yield getting above 1.94%. The market is savagely unhealthy and needs balance; this is what we call balance! As you can see, sales levels were never elevated like what we saw from 2002-2005. Guess what happened in March?

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Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 28, 2022

million level we saw in 2005. However, it does show that the builders are in a much better spot to deal with their massive supply, compared to the 2005-2008 period. They are good at selling their inventory much quicker than existing home sellers, who might still be stingy on prices. months are under construction, 1.86

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Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 16, 2023

They have less competition as they are working from low sales levels in today’s housing market. Last year we had monthly existing home sales collapse back to 2007 levels, except this time around, NAR has total inventory at 970,000 and not over 4 million. 291,000 homes are still under construction: 5.7 months of supply.

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 19, 2022

Construction of single-family homes dropped 2.3% from November to 1.172 million units, the construction of multifamily units again posted a sizable increase of 13.7% 2021 was a strong year for construction.”. But while this is good news for new housing construction, homebuilders still have plenty of obstacles to overcome.

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Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2022

We finally got mortgage rates to rise, and for people like me who have been concerned about how unhealthy the housing market was last year — and it got a lot worse this year — it’s a blessing that was much needed. This sector on an apples-to-apples basis is more expensive than the existing home sales market. The only risk to that 6.2

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Mortgage Inventory Housing Market Construction 455

Housing Wire

JULY 13, 2022

Looking at the housing market in the years 2020-2024, one risk i identified early on was that home prices could accelerate more in this period than we saw in the previous expansion if inventory channels broke to all-time lows. housing market as savagely unhealthy. Over the last two and a half years of U.S.

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Inventory Housing Market Mortgage Marketing 539

Housing Wire

JUNE 24, 2022

The market has changed with rates so much higher, but for the most part, the builders are managing the recent weakness in sales as best they can. Census: For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply The seasonally?adjusted The monthly supply data for new homes often get mixed up with the existing home sales market. When supply is 4.4

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Housing Wire

APRIL 18, 2023

First, however, remember that the housing market is still in a recession, which I wrote about on June 16, 2022. The housing market is still in a recession until housing permits rise in duration. As you can see in the chart below, this looks nothing like the housing peak in 2005 and the crash toward 2008. percent (±13.3

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Mortgage Construction Supply Chain Housing Market 499

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 2, 2020

I’m talking about housing market crash headlines. These dramatic peaks and valleys in the data have fed the demons of greed and fear that infest the minds our extreme housing bulls and the fierce housing market bears – leading to equally wild speculations about the future of U.S. The housing data has been wild this year.

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Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 24, 2022

To be honest here, the new home sales market is stuck for now. It gives an idea of what to expect for housing construction. months and below, this is an excellent market for the builders. months, this is an OK market for the builders. months and above, the builders will pull back on construction. When supply is 6.5

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Construction Housing Market Marketing Mortgage 387

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 23, 2020

Construction continued to play catch-up also as Novembers new-home inventory rose nearly 14% to a 4.1-month month supply – inching ever closer to the six-month supply sweet spot that suggests a balanced market. The West came in second at a 17.3% decline, while the South and Northeast both fell less than 3%.

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Housing Wire

JUNE 30, 2021

Pending home sales reached its highest mark for the month of May since 2005, up 8% from the previous month of April as low inventory continues driving buyers to snatch up available real estate. ” Ruben Gonzalez, Keller Williams chief economist, added that he is “optimistic” new home construction will pick up.

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 23, 2022

In 2005, when the housing bubble peaked in sales at around 1.4 The housing market has been in a recession since June of this year, and we have other data lines that can be more useful in gauging the new home sales sector. months, and below, this is an excellent market for builders. months , this is an OK market for the builders.

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Construction Marketing Housing Market Mortgage 441

Housing Wire

APRIL 27, 2022

Tuesday, the new home sales report for March came in as a miss of estimates at 763,000, but the revisions were all positive, which shows that the housing data is still lagging behind the current market reality. The new home sales market doesn’t have a 28% cash-buyer profile as we saw in the last existing home sales report.

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 23, 2022

It didn’t help the builders that they had a global pandemic and we still have many new homes either in construction or that haven’t been started yet. months 290,000 new homes are still under construction, about 5.5 That would reverse the problem the housing market has had selling homes with mortgage rates above 7%. percent (±22.7

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Construction Housing Market Mortgage Sellers 350

Housing Wire

AUGUST 3, 2021

Home prices continue to increase as national inventory levels remain low heading into August. growth is the largest annual growth reported since 1979, as supply and demand pressures endure and construction costs continue to rise, said Frank Nothaft, CoreLogic’s chief economist. . Home prices increased 2.3% ” The 17.2%

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Buyers Inventory Realtors Contracts 498

Housing Wire

MAY 6, 2022

We haven’t seen that yet; the -12% YoY decline is a noticeable weakness, but nothing too dramatic yet like what we saw from 2005-to 2008. HousingWire: Will inventory finally break the streak and be positive year over year? HousingWire: What is the biggest risk to your balance housing market take?

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 19, 2022

You always want to be skeptical of any housing starts data that comes in too strong or too negative from the trend, and we had some specific factors in this report that boosted multifamily construction. Some of the demand that we saw from 2002-2005 was facilitated by credit that no longer exists in the marketplace today. This is 17.2

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Construction Housing Market Inventory Marketing 394

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 5, 2021

With the housing sector battling ongoing supply constraints , a loss of 3,000 jobs in construction employment may be a slight hiccup after 8 solid months of growth. But Mike Fratantoni, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association , said he expects construction to grow later in the year.

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 20, 2021

Even in the extreme conditions of COVID-19, my general premise on housing economics predicted that the two variables with the most influence — demographics and mortgage rates — would hold up the housing market. We got to as low as 0.32% on that Monday morning in March when the crisis was hitting the markets the hardest. The forecast.

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Housing Market Inventory Mortgage Marketing 542

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 21, 2020

Housing inventory and prices. Given the low interest rates that are driving demand, housing inventory has become a rising concern. MBA Associate Vice President of Industry Analysis Joel Kan explained that current inventory rests at just a three-month supply. trillion in 2005.

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