Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 26, 2023

. “This is about the same rate of price growth that occurred during the 2002 through 2006 period when subprime lending drove exuberant housing demand. “But that is where the similarities end. Mortgage holders are well-qualified and subprime loans are rare. ”

Inventory 445

Inventory Housing Market Lending Buyers 445

Housing Wire

JULY 6, 2022

As recession talk becomes more prevalent, some people are concerned that mortgage credit lending will get much tighter. When people say credit will get so tight that we are headed back to 2008 levels of lending, they’re telling me they’ve never read the MBA’s mortgage credit availability index, not even one time.

Lending 481

Lending Mortgage Business Inventory 481

Housing Wire

MARCH 31, 2022

We aren’t anywhere close to the housing bubble dynamics we had from 2002 to 2008; that environment is simply impossible to replicate. Especially in a year when inventory has crashed to all-time lows and demand for those houses is still so high. This got smashed in two years, and inventory levels broke to all-time lows this year.

Housing Market 525

Housing Market Inventory Lending Marketing 525

Housing Wire

JUNE 28, 2022

Imagine if mortgage rates didn’t rise this year. We are still showing double-digit home-price growth trends in the recent data as it takes time for higher mortgage rates to really increase supply back to normal levels. Since 2014, we’ve not seen the credit housing boom that we saw from 2002-2005.

Housing Market 453

Housing Market Marketing Inventory Investors 453

Housing Wire

MAY 18, 2023

We don’t have a massive credit boom as purchase application data is at historical lows; we haven’t had the same run-up in credit as we saw from 2002-2005. If we had a massive credit boom-to-bust, inventory would have skyrocketed in 2022. NAR Total Inventory Data going back to 1982. million, up from 1.03 million last year.

Housing Market 534

Housing Market Marketing Inventory Mortgage 534

Housing Wire

MARCH 18, 2022

Inventory has broken to all-time lows, but it doesn’t look like the year-over-year data will be positive at all this year unless demand softens up. You can see why I have been on team higher mortgage rates for some time now because we don’t have any other way to get off this madness. NAR Research : Unsold inventory sits at a 1.7-month

Housing Market 542

Housing Market Marketing Inventory Sellers 542

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 22, 2022

Even though this was a beat of estimates, the sales decline trend due to higher mortgage rates and home prices continues. The savagely unhealthy housing market theme of mine is running in full force now as we have gotten no relief on home prices and now have a mega jump in mortgage rates. . I am a big fan of inventory to 2019 levels.

Inventory 449

Inventory Housing Market New Listings Mortgage 449

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 9, 2022

Inventory levels broke to all-time lows and thus created massive housing inflation quickly, which broke my model. In the summer of 2020, I talked about how the housing market would change, but it needed the 10-year yield to break over 1.94%, which roughly means 4% plus mortgage rates. nominal per year at most.

New Listings 482

New Listings Inventory Housing Market Sellers 482

Housing Wire

AUGUST 30, 2022

While the growth rate is cooling monthly, we are still in a savagely unhhealthy housing market trying to get national inventory levels back to pre-COVID-19 levels. Housing inventory issue with no booming demand. However, we haven’t had a credit sales boom like the one we saw from 2002-2005. million listings.

Inventory 383

Inventory New Listings Law Housing Market 383

Housing Wire

MAY 19, 2022

However, this year has seen one big game-changer: the 10-year yield finally cracked over 1.94%, which drove mortgage rates over 4%. This is something that I said would change the tone of housing, and we are seeing that result this year as sales decline and inventory picks up. Inventory is always seasonal. million and 1.93

Housing Market 521

Housing Market Marketing Inventory Realtors 521

Housing Wire

APRIL 20, 2022

However, the real story of 2022 is that the savagely unhealthy housing market continues as inventory is still lower than last year, sending home prices growth into double digits again. Housing demand has been stable for the past few years; we have never had a credit boom in demand since 2002-2005. Unsold inventory sits at a 2.0-month

Housing Market 486

Housing Market Marketing Inventory Mortgage 486

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 12, 2020

Mortgage demand, too, is at an 11-year high. Here is another precedent: Back in 2012, our housing bear buddies kept insisting that the housing market had 4 million to 5 million homes in what they called shadow inventory. Shadow inventory refers to homes in foreclosure that banks are holding off the market.

Inventory 545

Inventory Housing Market Marketing Mortgage 545

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 31, 2022

One of the unsung heroes of the most prolonged economic and job expansion ever recorded in history was the passing of the 2005 Bankruptcy Reform Act and the 2010 qualified mortgage rule under Dodd-Frank. Total inventory in America grew from 2000 to 2005 while demand grew. In 2000, we saw a lot of credit stress in the system.

Law 515

Law Inventory Lending Mortgage 515

Housing Wire

JUNE 8, 2021

The Salt Lake City-based lender says it’s worked with over 1 million homeowners since its founding in 2002 and funded $11.6 It mostly originated cash-out refis and purchase mortgages in 2020, according to HMDA statistics in Polygon’s database. billion in home improvement projects. in 2021 to $433 billion.

Renovations 348

Renovations Home Improvement Marketing Finance 348

Housing Wire

MAY 9, 2022

housing market is more tied to mortgage buyers. We are a monster compared to them in population and the majority of homebuyers in America use mortgages. When mortgage rates rise, two things always happen here in America. As we can see below, our current situation isn’t about mortgage credit getting out of hand.

Buyers 528

Buyers Housing Market Mortgage Marketing 528

Housing Wire

MARCH 28, 2022

However, since I had the possibility of the 10-year yield getting to 2.42% and 4% plus mortgage rates, I accounted for that in the range. The one thing that has happened in 2022 that has been worse is that national inventory levels have worsened in 2022 to start the year. Inventory has been falling for years.

Housing Market 328

Housing Market Marketing Supply Chain Inventory 328

Housing Wire

JANUARY 12, 2022

Early in 2021, when I was talking about how people should worry about home prices overheating, I had a glimmer of hope that maybe toward the end of 2021 we would be spared another seasonal collapse of inventory. Inventory always falls in the fall and winter, but I hoped it wouldn’t be a repeat of 2020.

Inventory 537

Inventory Mortgage Housing Market Marketing 537

Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2023

If there’s one sector of the economy that benefits from the very low levels of total housing inventory , it’s the homebuilders , but for a reason you might not think. If national housing inventory were back to normal, we would have 2 to 2.5 Rates did spike from 5.99% to 7.10% recently , impacting the data coming up.

Inventory 540

Inventory Housing Market Construction Marketing 540

Housing Wire

MAY 26, 2022

It’s an excellent time to discuss housing inventory. As the 10-year yield broke above 1.94% and mortgage rates rose, we saw the impact on housing data. That’s not the case now because we have’t had a credit boom post-2010 as we did from 2002 to 2005. I don’t believe housing inventory below 1.52 housing market.

Inventory 507

Inventory Housing Market Construction Marketing 507

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 29, 2021

The housing market didn’t crash at all, in fact, more Americans bought homes with mortgages in 2021 than in 2020. mortgage rates, so on the mortgage rate side of the equation, it’s never been better. Mortgage debt service payments as a percent of disposable personal income are near all-time lows.

Housing Market 529

Housing Market Marketing Construction Mortgage 529

Lamacchia Realty

JANUARY 25, 2024

This scarcity in inventory exerted upward pressure on prices, although it coincided with a 19% decline in sales. Despite this decline, motivated buyers were out there trying to secure a home while also trying to navigate lower affordability and low inventory. Average prices for closed sales increased by 7.2% Sales Decline by 18.9%

Inventory 53

Inventory Sellers Buyers Contracts 53

Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2022

We finally got mortgage rates to rise, and for people like me who have been concerned about how unhealthy the housing market was last year — and it got a lot worse this year — it’s a blessing that was much needed. million line in the sand has been this: Home prices grow above that 23% level: check Mortgage rates spike higher: check.

Mortgage 461

Mortgage Inventory Housing Market Construction 461

Housing Wire

APRIL 15, 2022

We’ve all been wondering what 5% plus mortgage rates would do to the hot housing market, and now we’ve got that and a bag of chips. As a result, I’ve been rooting for mortgage rates to rise to create a balancing impact on this housing market. Inventory is still showing negative year-over-year data.

Housing Market 497

Housing Market Marketing Mortgage Inventory 497

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 29, 2022

The housing sector — especially real estate and mortgage — has seen significant layoffs , while the general economy will create more than 4 million jobs in 2022. Then we had the biggest mortgage rate shock in recent history and yet even with that, we will have over 5 million total home sales this year. Production falls. Home sales.

Housing Market 545

Housing Market Marketing Inventory Sellers 545

Housing Wire

APRIL 13, 2022

Seasonal inventory is about to rise, so let’s hope for the best. However, the demand curve of what we have in housing too doesn’t resemble the speculation demand curve of what we saw from 2002-to 2005. Even today, we aren’t even at 2002 levels in the MBA index. Have more questions for Logan?

Housing Market 422

Housing Market Marketing Mortgage Inventory 422

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 11, 2022

Inventory, which has been falling for years, broke to all-time lows in 2020. We didn’t have a seasonal push in inventory in 2020, and things worsened in 2021. To top it all off, we started 2022 at all-time lows, forcing bidding action everywhere until mortgage rates rose. to over 7% in a very short period of time.

Sellers 501

Sellers Inventory Housing Market New Listings 501

Housing Wire

APRIL 8, 2022

Home prices are skyrocketing, housing inventory is at all-time lows and homebuyers have to contend with multiple bids. One of the reasons that I moved into the “team higher mortgage rate” camp is that what I saw in January, February, and March of this year was so unhealthy that I labeled the housing market savagely unhealthy.

Housing Market 395

Housing Market Marketing Inventory Lending 395

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 26, 2023

New home sales missed estimates today but had three months of positive revisions, which continues the story of the builders managing the higher mortgage rate environment. However, higher mortgage rates make it harder and harder to pull some of those deals off. The question is, what happens in the future with higher mortgage rates?

Inventory 470

Inventory Construction Housing Market Marketing 470

Housing Wire

JULY 13, 2022

Looking at the housing market in the years 2020-2024, one risk i identified early on was that home prices could accelerate more in this period than we saw in the previous expansion if inventory channels broke to all-time lows. This problem is much different than the housing credit bubble of 2002-2005.

Inventory 539

Inventory Housing Market Mortgage Construction 539

Housing Wire

MAY 24, 2022

A few months ago, I wrote that the new home sales sector is at risk because of rising mortgage rates. As you can see, sales levels were never elevated like what we saw from 2002-2005. This housing cycle is and will always be based on real demand, versus the credit boom we saw from 2002 to 2005. Slow and steady wins the race.

Housing Market 394

Housing Market Inventory Construction Marketing 394

Housing Wire

AUGUST 16, 2022

Tuesday’s housing starts report clearly shows that homebuilders are going to be done with single-family construction until mortgage rates fall. The credit cycle looks much different now than the build-up from 2002-2005. In the past, builders benefitted when mortgage rates fell toward 4% and below.

Mortgage 530

Mortgage Construction Inventory Buyers 530

Will Springer Realtor

NOVEMBER 9, 2022

and jump in mortgage rates of 4 percentage points has created a housing market belly flop. Sure, the increases in inventory are impressive – up 123% for all homes in the county from 2021 to today and up a whopping 359% on the Eastside – but that should not surprise anyone. months’ inventory while Seattle is at 2.5

New Listings 36

New Listings Housing Market Inventory Buyers 36

Housing Wire

JUNE 24, 2022

As you can see below, new home sales are still below the 2000 recession level, and we just had a significant spike in mortgage rates too. These monthly reports can be very wild, and I anticipate big swings in the reports until things calm down with mortgage rates. Census: For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply The seasonally?adjusted

Inventory 452

Inventory Construction Marketing Mortgage 452

Housing Wire

JULY 26, 2022

They also learned their lesson quickly in 2018 as mortgage rates at 5% were too high for construction growth.” ” Mortgage rates have risen, and the builders have many homes under construction, so they’re going to stall things until they know they can sell their homes. In response, they stalled construction for 30 months.

Construction 501

Construction Housing Market Inventory Marketing 501

Appraisal Today

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

NOTE: Please scroll down to read the other topics in this long blog post on non-lender appraisals, VA, flood and fires no insurance, retirement, few lender appraisals, unusual homes, mortgage origination $22M Modern Mansion on 130 Acres in Napa Has Its Own Cabernet Vineyard Excerpts: 6 bedrooms, 6.5+ The GSEs started keeping track in 71.

Insurance 78

Insurance Appraisal Contracts Mortgage 78

Appraisal Today

AUGUST 13, 2023

NOTE: Please scroll down to read the other topics in this long blog post on non lender appraisals, liability, markets with few sales, Bias, unusual homes, mortgage origination A California Winery With a 91-Acre Vineyard for $12,995,000 Red Soles Winery, a 91-acre vineyard. August 9, 2023) — Mortgage applications decreased 3.1

Appraisal 74

Appraisal Contracts Real Estate Agent Mortgage 74

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 24, 2022

The real question is how much higher mortgage rates will bite the most sensitive sector to rates: new homes. This stands in contrast to the existing home sales market, where higher mortgage rates can create more inventory and cool down price growth. A good example was 2018. million, consider that a good year.

Construction 392

Construction Housing Market Marketing Mortgage 392