Housing Wire

DECEMBER 8, 2021

My biggest concern for housing in the years 2020-2024 was that if the demographic push in demand picks up and total home sales get over 6. 2 million , we could be at risk of housing inventory falling to such low levels that I would have to categorize this housing market as unhealthy.

Inventory 523

Inventory Housing Market Marketing Mortgage 523

Housing Wire

JUNE 2, 2022

One top question he addresses is how the industry is reacting to this savagely unhealthy housing market. HW+ Member: What’s the number one question you are getting from the real estate agent community on the economy and housing market? The big difference now than, let’s say, what we saw from 2002-2008.

Training 443

Training Inventory Housing Market Real Estate Agent 443

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 29, 2021

A bullish housing market. economic recovery was a false story and that we were about to embark on a second housing bubble crash due to forbearance. The housing market didn’t crash at all, in fact, more Americans bought homes with mortgages in 2021 than in 2020. What a year 2021 has been. The excellent.

Housing Market 532

Housing Market Marketing Construction Mortgage 532

Housing Wire

MARCH 28, 2022

However, since I had the possibility of the 10-year yield getting to 2.42% and 4% plus mortgage rates, I accounted for that in the range. The one thing that has happened in 2022 that has been worse is that national inventory levels have worsened in 2022 to start the year. Inventory has been falling for years.

Housing Market 332

Housing Market Marketing Supply Chain Inventory 332

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 26, 2023

. “This is about the same rate of price growth that occurred during the 2002 through 2006 period when subprime lending drove exuberant housing demand. “But that is where the similarities end. Mortgage holders are well-qualified and subprime loans are rare. ”

Inventory 474

Inventory Housing Market Lending Buyers 474

Housing Wire

AUGUST 19, 2021

The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage declined slightly to 2.86% for the week ending in August 19, according to mortgage rates data released Thursday by Freddie Mac ‘s PMMS. The week prior, mortgage rates rose to 2.87% , after six consecutive weeks of mortgage rate declines. Last week, mortgage applications decreased 3.9%

Mortgage 516

Mortgage Supply Chain Inventory Finance 516

Housing Wire

MARCH 31, 2022

That’s not to say that the data points the Fed used are incorrect — in fact, we are in a savagely unhealthy housing market , but it’s not a bubble. First, because there is no speculative debt demand going on today, there can’t be a housing bubble. housing market behavior for the first time since the boom of the early 2000s.

Housing Market 529

Housing Market Inventory Lending Marketing 529

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 22, 2022

Even though this was a beat of estimates, the sales decline trend due to higher mortgage rates and home prices continues. The savagely unhealthy housing market theme of mine is running in full force now as we have gotten no relief on home prices and now have a mega jump in mortgage rates. . Unsold inventory sits at a 3.2-month

Inventory 478

Inventory Housing Market New Listings Mortgage 478

Housing Wire

JULY 6, 2022

As recession talk becomes more prevalent, some people are concerned that mortgage credit lending will get much tighter. When people say credit will get so tight that we are headed back to 2008 levels of lending, they’re telling me they’ve never read the MBA’s mortgage credit availability index, not even one time.

Lending 501

Lending Mortgage Business Inventory 501

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 9, 2022

However, the housing market did run into one problem in 2020. Inventory levels broke to all-time lows and thus created massive housing inflation quickly, which broke my model. I knew housing would be OK as long as home prices only grew at 23% over five years — 4.6% nominal per year at most.

New Listings 499

New Listings Inventory Housing Market Sellers 499

Housing Wire

AUGUST 30, 2022

While the growth rate is cooling monthly, we are still in a savagely unhhealthy housing market trying to get national inventory levels back to pre-COVID-19 levels. I have documented the history of these housing price crash addicts for a decade now. Housing inventory issue with no booming demand.

Inventory 397

Inventory New Listings Law Housing Market 397

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 12, 2020

Despite what they promised, we sit here today with the United States housing market outperforming all other economic sectors in the world during the pandemic. In order for the housing market to crash due to too many loans going into default when forbearance programs end, the number of loans in these programs needs to grow.

Inventory 545

Inventory Housing Market Marketing Mortgage 545

Housing Wire

MAY 9, 2022

housing market follow Canada? In short, the answer is no, we won’t have the type of home-price velocity that Canada has experienced because our housing market is more diverse than theirs. housing market is more tied to mortgage buyers. from 2002-to 2005, which led to forced credit selling.

Buyers 532

Buyers Housing Market Mortgage Marketing 532

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 29, 2022

As we close out 2022, it’s time to reflect on a historic year for the housing market, which was even crazier than the COVID-19 year of 2020. Housing permits and starts are falling now, even with the backlog of homes in the system. With less transaction volume , general incomes in the housing sector are falling.

Housing Market 545

Housing Market Marketing Inventory Sellers 545

Housing Wire

APRIL 15, 2022

We’ve all been wondering what 5% plus mortgage rates would do to the hot housing market, and now we’ve got that and a bag of chips. As a result, I’ve been rooting for mortgage rates to rise to create a balancing impact on this housing market. Have higher rates worked?

Housing Market 511

Housing Market Marketing Mortgage Inventory 511

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 31, 2022

One of the unsung heroes of the most prolonged economic and job expansion ever recorded in history was the passing of the 2005 Bankruptcy Reform Act and the 2010 qualified mortgage rule under Dodd-Frank. During the build-up to when the housing bubble burst, housing was getting noticeably weaker on many fronts.

Law 522

Law Inventory Lending Mortgage 522

Housing Wire

APRIL 13, 2022

This was the last thing we needed to see for the Housing Market , which went from unhealthy to savagely unhealthy. What I am hoping for is that higher rates create more days on the market, cool price growth down, and at some point this year, we stop being negative and be positive on a year-over-year basis.

Housing Market 455

Housing Market Marketing Mortgage Inventory 455

Housing Wire

APRIL 8, 2022

Home prices are skyrocketing, housing inventory is at all-time lows and homebuyers have to contend with multiple bids. In time, markets always find balance and balance is a good thing. But, that doesn’t mean housing is going to crash. Inventory velocity. April 10, 2020: We needed a lot of inventory, fast.

Housing Market 418

Housing Market Marketing Inventory Lending 418

Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2023

If there’s one sector of the economy that benefits from the very low levels of total housing inventory , it’s the homebuilders , but for a reason you might not think. If national housing inventory were back to normal, we would have 2 to 2.5 Rates did spike from 5.99% to 7.10% recently , impacting the data coming up.

Inventory 541

Inventory Housing Market Construction Marketing 541

Housing Wire

JANUARY 12, 2022

Early in 2021, when I was talking about how people should worry about home prices overheating, I had a glimmer of hope that maybe toward the end of 2021 we would be spared another seasonal collapse of inventory. Inventory always falls in the fall and winter, but I hoped it wouldn’t be a repeat of 2020.

Inventory 538

Inventory Mortgage Housing Market Marketing 538

Housing Wire

MAY 26, 2022

It’s an excellent time to discuss housing inventory. The housing market shifted in March of this year. As the 10-year yield broke above 1.94% and mortgage rates rose, we saw the impact on housing data. How can housing inventory be so low today when it skyrocketed back in 2009? housing market.

Inventory 515

Inventory Housing Market Construction Marketing 515

Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2022

We finally got mortgage rates to rise, and for people like me who have been concerned about how unhealthy the housing market was last year — and it got a lot worse this year — it’s a blessing that was much needed. This sector on an apples-to-apples basis is more expensive than the existing home sales market. percent (±11.9

Mortgage 482

Mortgage Inventory Housing Market Construction 482

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 11, 2022

There’s a showdown at the housing market corral between homebuyers and sellers. When I came up with the “ savagely unhealthy housing market ” label in February of this year, it was based on the premise that the housing inflation story that we have had to deal with since 2020 was a historical event.

Sellers 514

Sellers Inventory Housing Market New Listings 514

Housing Wire

JULY 13, 2022

Looking at the housing market in the years 2020-2024, one risk i identified early on was that home prices could accelerate more in this period than we saw in the previous expansion if inventory channels broke to all-time lows. housing market as savagely unhealthy. Over the last two and a half years of U.S.

Inventory 540

Inventory Housing Market Mortgage Construction 540

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 20, 2022

The bigger story here is that if we want to see mortgage rates fall, we need more rental units, and right now we have a massive backlog of 2-unit homes under construction — over 900,000. Traditionally, housing starts, permits, and completions would move together, like what we saw in 2002-2005.

Housing Market 440

Housing Market Marketing Construction Supply Chain 440

Housing Wire

JULY 26, 2022

This data line confirms what we all know to be the case: The housing market, at least as it relates to construction, is in a recession. Since the summer of 2020, I have genuinely believed the housing market could change once the 10-year yield broke over 1.94%. It is what it is: the housing dilemma we live with in America.

Construction 514

Construction Housing Market Inventory Marketing 514

Housing Wire

MAY 24, 2022

A few months ago, I wrote that the new home sales sector is at risk because of rising mortgage rates. A lot of the housing data was lagging the rate move, so it wasn’t apparent that higher rates impacted the data yet. As you can see, sales levels were never elevated like what we saw from 2002-2005. Slow and steady wins the race.

Housing Market 417

Housing Market Inventory Construction Marketing 417

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 26, 2023

New home sales missed estimates today but had three months of positive revisions, which continues the story of the builders managing the higher mortgage rate environment. However, higher mortgage rates make it harder and harder to pull some of those deals off. The question is, what happens in the future with higher mortgage rates?

Inventory 480

Inventory Construction Housing Market Marketing 480

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 24, 2022

The real question is how much higher mortgage rates will bite the most sensitive sector to rates: new homes. This stands in contrast to the existing home sales market, where higher mortgage rates can create more inventory and cool down price growth. It hasn’t for a reason; that was always a marketing pitch.

Construction 422

Construction Housing Market Marketing Mortgage 422

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 20, 2021

Even in the extreme conditions of COVID-19, my general premise on housing economics predicted that the two variables with the most influence — demographics and mortgage rates — would hold up the housing market. The 10-year yield and mortgage rates. The forecast. Current conditions don’t support this. The backstory.

Housing Market 543

Housing Market Inventory Mortgage Marketing 543

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 23, 2022

One of the realities of COVID-19 has been the lag to build homes in a business that requires stable mortgage rates because of the traditional time to complete a home. Mortgage rates jumped from 3% to 7.375% this year. That would reverse the problem the housing market has had selling homes with mortgage rates above 7%.

Construction 355

Construction Housing Market Mortgage Sellers 355

Housing Wire

JUNE 24, 2022

As you can see below, new home sales are still below the 2000 recession level, and we just had a significant spike in mortgage rates too. These monthly reports can be very wild, and I anticipate big swings in the reports until things calm down with mortgage rates. Census: For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply The seasonally?adjusted

Inventory 479

Inventory Construction Marketing Mortgage 479

Housing Wire

AUGUST 16, 2022

Tuesday’s housing starts report clearly shows that homebuilders are going to be done with single-family construction until mortgage rates fall. Currently, we are in a much different housing recession than what we had from 2005-2011. The credit cycle looks much different now than the build-up from 2002-2005.

Mortgage 533

Mortgage Construction Inventory Buyers 533

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 22, 2021

It’s the same reason I have given for many years: the American bears who are typically housing crash addicts can’t read data correctly, and the mortgage purchase application data just proved my point once again. Then everyone went crazy on investors and iBuyers , suggesting that these people were holding up the entire housing market.

Inventory 491

Inventory Housing Market Investors Marketing 491

Housing Wire

MARCH 17, 2022

We had more housing starts during the bubble years because from 2002 to 2005 that demand curve was higher, but it was facilitated by unhealthy credit growth. The homebuyers of new homes today are very solid, but since we don’t have a credit boom in housing, housing starts will move up slowly. Housing completions.

Construction 482

Construction Housing Market Inventory Buyers 482

Housing Wire

APRIL 27, 2022

Our demographics were either too young or too old to be in the market to purchase homes. “Second, over 8 million homeowners were delinquent on their mortgages, and once they lost their home, they would join the ranks of renters. It was an easy layup for me to state that forbearance was never going to be the collapse of the U.S.

Inventory 351

Inventory Housing Market Legal Mortgage 351

Housing Wire

APRIL 27, 2022

That data shows how housing was still on pace to have another solid year before mortgage rates got over 5%. The most recent housing starts data on permits and starts side of the equation was fine this month, but it also lagged the current rates environment. From Census: For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply: The seasonally?adjusted

Construction 346

Construction Buyers Housing Market Inventory 346