Housing Wire

JUNE 28, 2022

This data line lags the current housing market as it’s a few months old. Imagine if mortgage rates didn’t rise this year. We are still showing double-digit home-price growth trends in the recent data as it takes time for higher mortgage rates to really increase supply back to normal levels. The 20-City Composite posted a 21.2%

Housing Market 458

Housing Market Marketing Inventory Investors 458

Housing Wire

MAY 19, 2022

million , with double-digit home-price growth driving a housing market that is still savagely unhealthy. However, this year has seen one big game-changer: the 10-year yield finally cracked over 1.94%, which drove mortgage rates over 4%. Inventory is always seasonal. Today inventory levels are at 1.02 million and 1.93

Housing Market 524

Housing Market Marketing Inventory Realtors 524

Housing Wire

AUGUST 19, 2021

The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage declined slightly to 2.86% for the week ending in August 19, according to mortgage rates data released Thursday by Freddie Mac ‘s PMMS. The week prior, mortgage rates rose to 2.87% , after six consecutive weeks of mortgage rate declines. Last week, mortgage applications decreased 3.9%

Mortgage 508

Mortgage Supply Chain Inventory Finance 508

Housing Wire

APRIL 20, 2022

However, the real story of 2022 is that the savagely unhealthy housing market continues as inventory is still lower than last year, sending home prices growth into double digits again. housing market; the 10-year is above 1.94%, something that didn’t happen in 2020 or 2021. 2014 was the last year total inventory grew.

Housing Market 491

Housing Market Marketing Inventory Mortgage 491

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 26, 2023

. “This is about the same rate of price growth that occurred during the 2002 through 2006 period when subprime lending drove exuberant housing demand. “But that is where the similarities end. Mortgage holders are well-qualified and subprime loans are rare. ”

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Inventory Housing Market Lending Buyers 456

Housing Wire

MARCH 31, 2022

The Dallas Fed on Thursday published an article titled: Real-Time Market Monitoring Finds Signs Of a Brewing U.S. That’s not to say that the data points the Fed used are incorrect — in fact, we are in a savagely unhealthy housing market , but it’s not a bubble. Housing Bubble. I disagree with this conclusion. Let me explain.

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Housing Market Inventory Lending Marketing 529

Housing Wire

JULY 6, 2022

As recession talk becomes more prevalent, some people are concerned that mortgage credit lending will get much tighter. When people say credit will get so tight that we are headed back to 2008 levels of lending, they’re telling me they’ve never read the MBA’s mortgage credit availability index, not even one time.

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Lending Mortgage Business Inventory 485

Housing Wire

MARCH 28, 2022

However, since I had the possibility of the 10-year yield getting to 2.42% and 4% plus mortgage rates, I accounted for that in the range. The one thing that has happened in 2022 that has been worse is that national inventory levels have worsened in 2022 to start the year. Inventory has been falling for years.

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Housing Market Marketing Supply Chain Inventory 348

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 22, 2022

Even though this was a beat of estimates, the sales decline trend due to higher mortgage rates and home prices continues. The savagely unhealthy housing market theme of mine is running in full force now as we have gotten no relief on home prices and now have a mega jump in mortgage rates. . Unsold inventory sits at a 3.2-month

Inventory 458

Inventory Housing Market New Listings Mortgage 458

Housing Wire

JUNE 8, 2021

The Salt Lake City-based lender says it’s worked with over 1 million homeowners since its founding in 2002 and funded $11.6 It mostly originated cash-out refis and purchase mortgages in 2020, according to HMDA statistics in Polygon’s database. billion in home improvement projects. in 2021 to $433 billion.

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Renovations Home Improvement Marketing Finance 375

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 9, 2022

But I need to explain why this level has more in common with 2014 housing data than the credit stress markets of 2005-2008, and why you should care. Understanding this data line and what it is trying to tell you will be more valuable than erroneously thinking the market is crashing and we’ll see a wave of foreclosures.

New Listings 493

New Listings Inventory Housing Market Sellers 493

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 29, 2021

A bullish housing market. The housing market didn’t crash at all, in fact, more Americans bought homes with mortgages in 2021 than in 2020. mortgage rates, so on the mortgage rate side of the equation, it’s never been better. What a year 2021 has been. We started the year with many pundits saying that the U.S.

Housing Market 532

Housing Market Marketing Construction Mortgage 532

Housing Wire

AUGUST 30, 2022

While the growth rate is cooling monthly, we are still in a savagely unhhealthy housing market trying to get national inventory levels back to pre-COVID-19 levels. Housing inventory issue with no booming demand. However, we haven’t had a credit sales boom like the one we saw from 2002-2005. million listings.

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Inventory New Listings Law Housing Market 384

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 12, 2020

Despite what they promised, we sit here today with the United States housing market outperforming all other economic sectors in the world during the pandemic. In order for the housing market to crash due to too many loans going into default when forbearance programs end, the number of loans in these programs needs to grow.

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Inventory Housing Market Marketing Mortgage 545

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 31, 2022

One of the unsung heroes of the most prolonged economic and job expansion ever recorded in history was the passing of the 2005 Bankruptcy Reform Act and the 2010 qualified mortgage rule under Dodd-Frank. Currently, the housing market is in a recession: sales, production, jobs and incomes are all falling in the housing sector.

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Law Inventory Lending Mortgage 517

Housing Wire

MAY 9, 2022

housing market follow Canada? In short, the answer is no, we won’t have the type of home-price velocity that Canada has experienced because our housing market is more diverse than theirs. housing market is more tied to mortgage buyers. When mortgage rates rise, two things always happen here in America.

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Buyers Housing Market Mortgage Marketing 530

Housing Wire

JANUARY 12, 2022

Early in 2021, when I was talking about how people should worry about home prices overheating, I had a glimmer of hope that maybe toward the end of 2021 we would be spared another seasonal collapse of inventory. Inventory always falls in the fall and winter, but I hoped it wouldn’t be a repeat of 2020.

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Inventory Mortgage Housing Market Marketing 538

Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2023

If there’s one sector of the economy that benefits from the very low levels of total housing inventory , it’s the homebuilders , but for a reason you might not think. If national housing inventory were back to normal, we would have 2 to 2.5 All this is happening while housing permits have fallen noticeably from the recent peak.

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Inventory Housing Market Construction Marketing 544

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 29, 2022

As we close out 2022, it’s time to reflect on a historic year for the housing market, which was even crazier than the COVID-19 year of 2020. The housing sector — especially real estate and mortgage — has seen significant layoffs , while the general economy will create more than 4 million jobs in 2022. Production falls. Incomes go down.

Housing Market 545

Housing Market Marketing Inventory Sellers 545

Housing Wire

APRIL 15, 2022

We’ve all been wondering what 5% plus mortgage rates would do to the hot housing market, and now we’ve got that and a bag of chips. As a result, I’ve been rooting for mortgage rates to rise to create a balancing impact on this housing market. Inventory is still showing negative year-over-year data.

Housing Market 500

Housing Market Marketing Mortgage Inventory 500

Housing Wire

MAY 26, 2022

It’s an excellent time to discuss housing inventory. The housing market shifted in March of this year. As the 10-year yield broke above 1.94% and mortgage rates rose, we saw the impact on housing data. Yes, crazy to think, but this is a survey trend data line, and the housing market was in free-fall at that time.

Inventory 518

Inventory Housing Market Construction Marketing 518

Housing Wire

APRIL 13, 2022

This was the last thing we needed to see for the Housing Market , which went from unhealthy to savagely unhealthy. What I am hoping for is that higher rates create more days on the market, cool price growth down, and at some point this year, we stop being negative and be positive on a year-over-year basis.

Housing Market 441

Housing Market Marketing Mortgage Inventory 441

Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2022

We finally got mortgage rates to rise, and for people like me who have been concerned about how unhealthy the housing market was last year — and it got a lot worse this year — it’s a blessing that was much needed. million line in the sand has been this: Home prices grow above that 23% level: check Mortgage rates spike higher: check.

Mortgage 480

Mortgage Inventory Housing Market Construction 480

Housing Wire

APRIL 8, 2022

Home prices are skyrocketing, housing inventory is at all-time lows and homebuyers have to contend with multiple bids. In time, markets always find balance and balance is a good thing. With where prices were heading when mortgage rates were under 4%, we were looking at 35%-40% cumulative home-price growth in just three years.

Housing Market 397

Housing Market Marketing Inventory Lending 397

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 11, 2022

There’s a showdown at the housing market corral between homebuyers and sellers. When I came up with the “ savagely unhealthy housing market ” label in February of this year, it was based on the premise that the housing inflation story that we have had to deal with since 2020 was a historical event. million today.

Sellers 504

Sellers Inventory Housing Market New Listings 504

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 26, 2023

New home sales missed estimates today but had three months of positive revisions, which continues the story of the builders managing the higher mortgage rate environment. However, higher mortgage rates make it harder and harder to pull some of those deals off. months and below, this is an excellent market for builders.

Inventory 493

Inventory Construction Housing Market Marketing 493

Housing Wire

JULY 13, 2022

Looking at the housing market in the years 2020-2024, one risk i identified early on was that home prices could accelerate more in this period than we saw in the previous expansion if inventory channels broke to all-time lows. housing market as savagely unhealthy. Over the last two and a half years of U.S.

Inventory 540

Inventory Housing Market Mortgage Construction 540

Housing Wire

MAY 24, 2022

A few months ago, I wrote that the new home sales sector is at risk because of rising mortgage rates. Going back to the summer of 2020, the one factor that I said could change the housing market was the 10-year yield getting above 1.94%. The market is savagely unhealthy and needs balance; this is what we call balance!

Housing Market 397

Housing Market Inventory Construction Marketing 397

Housing Wire

JULY 26, 2022

This data line confirms what we all know to be the case: The housing market, at least as it relates to construction, is in a recession. Since the summer of 2020, I have genuinely believed the housing market could change once the 10-year yield broke over 1.94%. Then in 2018, they had a supply spike as mortgage rates reached 5%.

Construction 504

Construction Housing Market Inventory Marketing 504

Housing Wire

JUNE 24, 2022

As you can see below, new home sales are still below the 2000 recession level, and we just had a significant spike in mortgage rates too. These monthly reports can be very wild, and I anticipate big swings in the reports until things calm down with mortgage rates. Census: For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply The seasonally?adjusted

Inventory 463

Inventory Construction Marketing Mortgage 463

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 20, 2022

The bigger story here is that if we want to see mortgage rates fall, we need more rental units, and right now we have a massive backlog of 2-unit homes under construction — over 900,000. Traditionally, housing starts, permits, and completions would move together, like what we saw in 2002-2005. When supply is 4.3 When supply is 4.4

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Housing Market Marketing Construction Supply Chain 418

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 24, 2022

To be honest here, the new home sales market is stuck for now. months and below, this is an excellent market for the builders. months, this is an OK market for the builders. The real question is how much higher mortgage rates will bite the most sensitive sector to rates: new homes. When supply is 4.4 When supply is 6.5

Construction 405

Construction Housing Market Marketing Mortgage 405

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 23, 2022

One of the realities of COVID-19 has been the lag to build homes in a business that requires stable mortgage rates because of the traditional time to complete a home. Mortgage rates jumped from 3% to 7.375% this year. That would reverse the problem the housing market has had selling homes with mortgage rates above 7%.

Construction 364

Construction Housing Market Mortgage Sellers 364

Housing Wire

AUGUST 16, 2022

Tuesday’s housing starts report clearly shows that homebuilders are going to be done with single-family construction until mortgage rates fall. The credit cycle looks much different now than the build-up from 2002-2005. In the past, builders benefitted when mortgage rates fell toward 4% and below.

Mortgage 531

Mortgage Construction Inventory Buyers 531

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 20, 2021

Even in the extreme conditions of COVID-19, my general premise on housing economics predicted that the two variables with the most influence — demographics and mortgage rates — would hold up the housing market. The 10-year yield and mortgage rates. That range dictated that mortgage rates would roughly stay between 3.5%-4.75%.

Housing Market 544

Housing Market Inventory Mortgage Marketing 544

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 22, 2021

It’s the same reason I have given for many years: the American bears who are typically housing crash addicts can’t read data correctly, and the mortgage purchase application data just proved my point once again. Then everyone went crazy on investors and iBuyers , suggesting that these people were holding up the entire housing market.

Inventory 496

Inventory Housing Market Investors Marketing 496

Housing Wire

JULY 6, 2023

In a bid to strengthen its position in the Gulf Coast market, has acquired Truland Homes , the largest private homebuilder along the Gulf Coast, according to an announcement issued Thursday. Horton’s already strong local market operations.” Horton has been the largest homebuilder by volume in the United States since 2002.

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Contracts Development Insurance Construction 370