Housing Wire

JUNE 2, 2022

One top question he addresses is how the industry is reacting to this savagely unhealthy housing market. HW+ Member: What’s the number one question you are getting from the real estate agent community on the economy and housing market? Months are homes under construction 0.8 Then this happened.

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Training Inventory Housing Market Real Estate Agent 415

Housing Wire

JULY 8, 2022

Looking at the jobs data and which sector added jobs in March, construction and manufacturing jobs came in positively, and we only lost jobs in the government. Job openings in construction and manufacturing have picked up recently. And the unemployment rate currently stands at 3.6%.

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Construction Housing Market Marketing Government 513

Housing Wire

JUNE 3, 2022

Look at the jobs data and which sector added jobs in March: Construction jobs came in positively, but retail trade took a big hit. Job openings in construction and manufacturing have picked up recently. However, this spike in supply isn’t like the spike we saw during the housing bubble crash, it needs more context.

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Construction Retail Transportation Marketing 523

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 23, 2020

Construction continued to play catch-up also as Novembers new-home inventory rose nearly 14% to a 4.1-month month supply – inching ever closer to the six-month supply sweet spot that suggests a balanced market. . The West came in second at a 17.3% decline, while the South and Northeast both fell less than 3%.

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Construction Inventory Buyers Marketing 330

Housing Wire

MAY 6, 2022

We haven’t seen that yet; the -12% YoY decline is a noticeable weakness, but nothing too dramatic yet like what we saw from 2005-to 2008. HousingWire: What is the biggest risk to your balance housing market take? Then the bond market will sniff this out and send bond yields lower, which means mortgage rates will fall.

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Inventory Housing Market Marketing Construction 356

Housing Wire

JANUARY 5, 2023

The 2022 housing market was savagely unhealthy , with all-time lows in inventory leading to massive bidding wars and price spikes until the Fed put a screeching halt to all of it with rate hikes that resulted in the most significant one-year spike in mortgage rate history. Housing recession. That would be a positive for demand.

Housing Market 541

Housing Market Marketing Inventory New Listings 541

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 4, 2022

As you can see, the construction sector was barely positive; this is one area of the marketplace that should be losing jobs next year. The builders are now holding onto their labor due to the backlog of homes under construction. When that ends, they will join the ranks of others in the housing industry that are laying off people.

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Marketing Construction Mortgage Housing Market 494

Housing Wire

APRIL 13, 2022

This was the last thing we needed to see for the Housing Market , which went from unhealthy to savagely unhealthy. What I am hoping for is that higher rates create more days on the market, cool price growth down, and at some point this year, we stop being negative and be positive on a year-over-year basis.

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Housing Market Marketing Mortgage Inventory 430

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 21, 2020

million annualized pace for new construction — the highest level since 2007. trillion in 2005. The economy, labor market, and housing market have all seen meaningful rebounds since the onset of the pandemic, but there is still profound uncertainty,” Fratantoni said.

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Housing Wire

JULY 19, 2022

The June housing starts data beat estimates with positive revisions, however, this doesn’t change the housing market recession call that I made last month. The housing permit data doesn’t look terrible. This is a plus for rental supply, however, single-family construction is about to cool down in response to higher rates.

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Housing Market Marketing Construction Real Estate 517

Empire Appraisal Group

AUGUST 10, 2023

But builders are responding to demand, setting a 13-month high for new housing starts in May 2023. Some of the froth is already out of the housing market. Ironically, higher overall housing costs are a key factor keeping the Fed active in raising rates to fight inflation. The home affordability index is near record lows.

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Housing Wire

MARCH 17, 2022

Census Bureau released their construction report for February, showing a positive trend in housing construction data with a lovely print in housing permits at 1,859,000 and housing starts at 1,769,000. Of course, that’s until you look at the housing completion data, which hasn’t gone anywhere in years.

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 20, 2022

This is the reason construction workers still have jobs, and that backlog needs to be finished; this is a positive outcome. The bigger story here is that if we want to see mortgage rates fall, we need more rental units, and right now we have a massive backlog of 2-unit homes under construction — over 900,000. percent (±12.3

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Housing Market Marketing Construction Supply Chain 410

Housing Wire

JULY 26, 2022

This data line confirms what we all know to be the case: The housing market, at least as it relates to construction, is in a recession. Since the summer of 2020, I have genuinely believed the housing market could change once the 10-year yield broke over 1.94%. In response, they stalled construction for 30 months.

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Construction Housing Market Inventory Marketing 498

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 22, 2020

housing market and compare those to where we are today — in the middle of one of the most epic years in our country’s history, due to COVID-19. No doubt about it, the COVID crisis has taken some juice out of the 2020 housing market. The February housing data, pre-COVID, was juicy indeed. Context is key!

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Housing Market Marketing Construction Buyers 542

Housing Wire

MAY 26, 2022

It’s an excellent time to discuss housing inventory. The housing market shifted in March of this year. As the 10-year yield broke above 1.94% and mortgage rates rose, we saw the impact on housing data. Yes, crazy to think, but this is a survey trend data line, and the housing market was in free-fall at that time.

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Inventory Housing Market Construction Marketing 513

Housing Wire

APRIL 25, 2023

According to this theory, we have more homes under construction than any time in history. I understand the lure of the housing 2008 story. In their haste, they miss the bigger picture of the housing market. It’s very sexy to talk gloom and doom about the housing market, but sometimes that doesn’t end well.

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Inventory Housing Market Construction Marketing 475

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 24, 2023

Just like in the existing home sales market, when sales are low, anything positive on the rate side can move the market in a positive direction. This goes into my low housing bar theme for 2023 and why we need context with sales data. months and below, this is an excellent market for builders. When supply is 4.3

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Inventory Construction Housing Market Mortgage 457

Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2022

We finally got mortgage rates to rise, and for people like me who have been concerned about how unhealthy the housing market was last year — and it got a lot worse this year — it’s a blessing that was much needed. As you can see below, the new home sales market from 2018-2022 doesn’t look like the housing market we had from 2002-2005.

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Mortgage Inventory Housing Market Construction 470

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 28, 2022

million level we saw in 2005. However, it does show that the builders are in a much better spot to deal with their massive supply, compared to the 2005-2008 period. months and below, this is an excellent market for the builders. months , this is just an OK market for the builders. months are under construction, 1.86

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Construction Sellers Inventory Housing Market 476

Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2023

However, with active listings now near all-time lows, the builders’ new homes still have more value in the housing market than what we saw in previous decades. We didn’t have the credit stress issue from 2010-2023 like we did from 2005 through 2008. months and below, this is an excellent market for builders.

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Inventory Housing Market Construction Marketing 543

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 24, 2022

From the National Association of Home Builders : For many years I have stressed that the most important housing data I follow is the monthly supply of new homes. It gives an idea of what to expect for housing construction. adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of January was 406,000. When supply is 4.4

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Construction Housing Market Marketing Mortgage 398

Housing Wire

JUNE 27, 2023

As we can see in the chart below, new home sales aren’t booming like what we saw at the peak of 2005 but are getting back to trend sales growth from the bottom we saw when rates got 5% in 2018. Also, in the chart below, we can all agree it isn’t housing 2005 or housing 2008 with new home sales. When supply is 4.4-6.4

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Construction Inventory Marketing Buyers 498

Housing Wire

AUGUST 23, 2022

The housing market is in a recession, something that the homebuilders and the National Association of Realtors now agree with me on, as this recent CNBC clip shows. family houses in July 2022 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 511,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. This is 12.6 percent (±16.9

Construction 370

Construction Housing Market Sellers Marketing 370

Housing Wire

MAY 24, 2022

A lot of the housing data was lagging the rate move, so it wasn’t apparent that higher rates impacted the data yet. Going back to the summer of 2020, the one factor that I said could change the housing market was the 10-year yield getting above 1.94%. However, the housing market changed once the 10-year yield broke over 1.94%.

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Housing Market Inventory Construction Marketing 393

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 26, 2023

As we can see in the chart below, sales levels aren’t exactly booming like they were from 2002-2005. From Census: For sale inventory and months’ supply : The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August was 436,000. months, the builders will pause construction. When supply is over 6.5 We are at 7.8

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Inventory Construction Housing Market Marketing 485

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 21, 2022

Housing construction in the U.S. during the brief COVID-19 recession, to that recovery, and now in the new housing recession, is going to go down in history as one of those crazy data lines we lived through. Just to give you some perspective here, at the peak of 2005, we had about 2.24 When supply is 4.4

Construction 514

Construction Housing Market Marketing Business 514

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 16, 2023

Looking at the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo homebuilder confidence data and builder stock prices, I can say the homebuilders got very lucky this time around in the middle of a housing recession. They have less competition as they are working from low sales levels in today’s housing market. months of supply.

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Construction Housing Market Inventory Mortgage 503

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 17, 2022

For this reason, the number of housing units “under construction” is the largest ever recorded in history because they were taking so long to finish. Housing construction productivity has always been terrible compared to other sectors of our economy; I get that, as we still build homes with hammers and nails, not robots.

Contracts 544

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Housing Wire

APRIL 18, 2023

Tuesday’s housing starts data does show some promise on the front of attacking inflation and helping lowering mortgage rates, so let’s look at the report and find out what I am talking about. First, however, remember that the housing market is still in a recession, which I wrote about on June 16, 2022. percent (±13.3

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Mortgage Construction Supply Chain Housing Market 507

Housing Wire

JULY 13, 2022

Looking at the housing market in the years 2020-2024, one risk i identified early on was that home prices could accelerate more in this period than we saw in the previous expansion if inventory channels broke to all-time lows. housing market as savagely unhealthy. million homes, using the NAR data.

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Inventory Housing Market Mortgage Construction 539

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 23, 2022

It didn’t help the builders that they had a global pandemic and we still have many new homes either in construction or that haven’t been started yet. months 290,000 new homes are still under construction, about 5.5 That would reverse the problem the housing market has had selling homes with mortgage rates above 7%.

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Construction Housing Market Mortgage Sellers 362

Housing Wire

APRIL 11, 2022

The big theme of my housing work since 2010 has been that the housing market would have its weakest recovery from 2008 to 2019 because we simply built too many homes versus the real demand curve, and monthly supply proves that. million total housing starts until 2020-2024, when demand would warrant that many housing starts.

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Inventory Housing Market Marketing Modernization 498

Housing Wire

AUGUST 16, 2022

Tuesday’s housing starts report clearly shows that homebuilders are going to be done with single-family construction until mortgage rates fall. If it wasn’t for solid rental demand boosting multifamily construction this year — 18% year to date —this data line would have looked much worse.

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Mortgage Construction Inventory Buyers 529

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 25, 2020

higher than the same time last year, according to the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. However, demand has construction playing catch-up , as the estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October was just 278,000. Sales are increasingly being driven from homes not yet under construction.

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Construction Development Mortgage Housing Market 523

Housing Wire

JANUARY 19, 2023

The Census Bureau ‘s housing starts report for December shows that housing completions are still too slow, and we are running out of time this year as housing permits are set to fall until the homebuilders get rid of their excess supply. million until 2020-2024, when demand would finally warrant that type of construction.

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Mortgage Construction Marketing Housing Market 475

Housing Wire

MARCH 29, 2022

The big theme of my housing work since 2010 has been that the housing market would have its weakest recovery from 2008 to 2019 because we simply built too many homes versus the real demand curve, and monthly supply proves that. million total housing starts until 2020-2024, when demand would warrant that many housing starts.

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Inventory Housing Market Marketing Modernization 404