Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 21, 2022

Housing construction in the U.S. during the brief COVID-19 recession, to that recovery, and now in the new housing recession, is going to go down in history as one of those crazy data lines we lived through. Just to give you some perspective here, at the peak of 2005, we had about 2.24 When supply is 4.4

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Housing Wire

MAY 26, 2022

It’s an excellent time to discuss housing inventory. The housing market shifted in March of this year. As the 10-year yield broke above 1.94% and mortgage rates rose, we saw the impact on housing data. Yes, crazy to think, but this is a survey trend data line, and the housing market was in free-fall at that time.

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Housing Wire

AUGUST 16, 2022

Tuesday’s housing starts report clearly shows that homebuilders are going to be done with single-family construction until mortgage rates fall. If it wasn’t for solid rental demand boosting multifamily construction this year — 18% year to date —this data line would have looked much worse.

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Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 26, 2023

As we can see in the chart below, sales levels aren’t exactly booming like they were from 2002-2005. From Census: For sale inventory and months’ supply : The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August was 436,000. months, the builders will pause construction. When supply is over 6.5 We are at 7.8

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Housing Wire

MAY 24, 2022

A lot of the housing data was lagging the rate move, so it wasn’t apparent that higher rates impacted the data yet. Going back to the summer of 2020, the one factor that I said could change the housing market was the 10-year yield getting above 1.94%. However, the housing market changed once the 10-year yield broke over 1.94%.

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Housing Wire

OCTOBER 19, 2022

In June of this year, I raised the fifth recession red flag , putting the housing market in a traditional recession where sales, incomes, jobs, and production would be falling, which is happening now. And unfortunately, one of those productions items is housing completions data — which looks terrible in the latest report.

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 19, 2022

Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. This is the highest level housing starts have reached in the past nine months. Construction of single-family homes dropped 2.3% from November to 1.172 million units, the construction of multifamily units again posted a sizable increase of 13.7% Census Bureau.

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Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 28, 2022

million level we saw in 2005. However, it does show that the builders are in a much better spot to deal with their massive supply, compared to the 2005-2008 period. months and below, this is an excellent market for the builders. months , this is just an OK market for the builders. months are under construction, 1.86

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Housing Wire

JULY 13, 2022

Looking at the housing market in the years 2020-2024, one risk i identified early on was that home prices could accelerate more in this period than we saw in the previous expansion if inventory channels broke to all-time lows. housing market as savagely unhealthy. million homes, using the NAR data.

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Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2023

However, with active listings now near all-time lows, the builders’ new homes still have more value in the housing market than what we saw in previous decades. We didn’t have the credit stress issue from 2010-2023 like we did from 2005 through 2008. months and below, this is an excellent market for builders.

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Housing Wire

APRIL 11, 2022

The big theme of my housing work since 2010 has been that the housing market would have its weakest recovery from 2008 to 2019 because we simply built too many homes versus the real demand curve, and monthly supply proves that. million homes, which would mean the madness in the housing market would be over.

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Housing Wire

JUNE 27, 2023

As we can see in the chart below, new home sales aren’t booming like what we saw at the peak of 2005 but are getting back to trend sales growth from the bottom we saw when rates got 5% in 2018. Also, in the chart below, we can all agree it isn’t housing 2005 or housing 2008 with new home sales. When supply is 4.4-6.4

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Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 24, 2022

From the National Association of Home Builders : For many years I have stressed that the most important housing data I follow is the monthly supply of new homes. It gives an idea of what to expect for housing construction. adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of January was 406,000. When supply is 4.4

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Housing Wire

JUNE 2, 2022

One top question he addresses is how the industry is reacting to this savagely unhealthy housing market. HW+ Member: What’s the number one question you are getting from the real estate agent community on the economy and housing market? Months are homes under construction 0.8 Then this happened.

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Housing Wire

MAY 18, 2022

Census Bureau released their new residential construction report for April, showing a miss on the estimate and a negative revisions data line, which I believe is lagging behind the current market reality. Housing starts came in at 1.724 million , and housing permits came in at 1.819 million — both are still very healthy numbers.

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 25, 2020

higher than the same time last year, according to the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. However, demand has construction playing catch-up , as the estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October was just 278,000. Sales are increasingly being driven from homes not yet under construction.

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Housing Wire

MARCH 29, 2022

The big theme of my housing work since 2010 has been that the housing market would have its weakest recovery from 2008 to 2019 because we simply built too many homes versus the real demand curve, and monthly supply proves that. million homes, which would mean the madness in the housing market would be over.

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Housing Wire

APRIL 27, 2022

As we can see below, the uptrend in sales is still intact, so housing starts have held up OK. Even though multifamily construction has boosted housing starts recently, the slowdown in single-family purchases hasn’t been anything too dramatic yet. From Census: The median sales price of new houses sold in March 2022 was $436,700.

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 19, 2022

You always want to be skeptical of any housing starts data that comes in too strong or too negative from the trend, and we had some specific factors in this report that boosted multifamily construction. The trend for housing starts is acceptable, but remember that this data line can be wild month to month, both positive and negative.

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Housing Wire

JUNE 16, 2022

Multifamily construction is different than single-family homes. From Census: Housing Completions Privately? family housing completions in May were at a rate of 1,043,000; this is 2.8 Housing completions have been one of the worst stories for the housing market. percent (±13.6

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Housing Wire

JULY 8, 2022

Looking at the jobs data and which sector added jobs in March, construction and manufacturing jobs came in positively, and we only lost jobs in the government. Job openings in construction and manufacturing have picked up recently. And the unemployment rate currently stands at 3.6%.

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Housing Wire

JUNE 3, 2022

Look at the jobs data and which sector added jobs in March: Construction jobs came in positively, but retail trade took a big hit. Job openings in construction and manufacturing have picked up recently. However, this spike in supply isn’t like the spike we saw during the housing bubble crash, it needs more context.

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 26, 2022

In reality, as we talked about many times on HousingWire, housing data was going to moderate, find a base and work from that COVID-19 surge in the data. However, with that said, it’s still just an OK housing market for me based on how I view the new home sales market. months, this is an OK market for the builders.

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Housing Wire

JUNE 24, 2022

We don’t say the new home sales market supply is the existing home sales market. The existing home sales market monthly supply is running at 2.6 Five months of the supply are homes in construction. That is a high level, and two months of the supply hasn’t started construction yet, and a whopping 0.68

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 23, 2020

Construction continued to play catch-up also as Novembers new-home inventory rose nearly 14% to a 4.1-month month supply – inching ever closer to the six-month supply sweet spot that suggests a balanced market. . The West came in second at a 17.3% decline, while the South and Northeast both fell less than 3%.

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 4, 2022

As you can see, the construction sector was barely positive; this is one area of the marketplace that should be losing jobs next year. The builders are now holding onto their labor due to the backlog of homes under construction. When that ends, they will join the ranks of others in the housing industry that are laying off people.

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Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 5, 2021

With the housing sector battling ongoing supply constraints , a loss of 3,000 jobs in construction employment may be a slight hiccup after 8 solid months of growth. But Mike Fratantoni, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association , said he expects construction to grow later in the year.

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Will Springer Realtor

DECEMBER 14, 2021

Forecasting the direction of the economy and residential real estate is never easy, particularly in a pandemic and following a mini-recession. Welcome to the fourth annual Living the Dream blog predictions and projections in real estate and beyond. What will the 2022 Seattle/King County housing market offer?

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Empire Appraisal Group

AUGUST 10, 2023

But builders are responding to demand, setting a 13-month high for new housing starts in May 2023. Some of the froth is already out of the housing market. Ironically, higher overall housing costs are a key factor keeping the Fed active in raising rates to fight inflation. The home affordability index is near record lows.

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Empire Appraisal Group

OCTOBER 28, 2021

USA TODAY spoke to eight experts to find out if a housing crash is on the horizon. For one, they say the housing market in 2021 is not like the boom-bust cycle leading up to the Great Recession. Given the strong housing market and price appreciation, banks are more likely to work with borrowers to restructure their loans.

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Appraisal Today

APRIL 12, 2024

NOTE: Please scroll down to read the other topics in this long blog post on non-lender appraisals, using new construction comps for existing homes, master planned communities, unusual homes, mortgage origination stats, etc. The estate is a short helicopter ride from a few smaller airports. baths, 14,450 sq.ft.,

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Appraisal Today

JUNE 17, 2022

NOTE: Please scroll down to read the other topics in this long blog post on real estate market, USPAP and contracts, unusual homes, mortgage origination stats, etc. ==. My Comments on Market Changes. We have never seen a pandemic real estate market before. I agree with what he says about real estate.

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Lamacchia Realty

DECEMBER 28, 2021

2021 is going down in history as a historical year for the housing market across America. For Massachusetts, I had predicted in my 2021 Predictions that it would be the biggest year for overall home sales since 2005 and even though the final numbers aren’t in yet, it looks like my prediction will be right on. 2021 Recap.

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