Housing Wire

MARCH 5, 2024

Ahead of Friday’s national jobs report, mortgage rates have found stability after increasing for multiple weeks. Polly ’s average 30-year fixed rate for conventional loans was 7.17% on Tuesday, down from 7.24% one week earlier, according to HousingWire’s Mortgage Rates Center. one week earlier. Between Feb.

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Housing Wire

APRIL 24, 2024

Mortgage lenders should get used to the concept of ”higher for longer” interest rates and work to bring profitability to their businesses, according to Stan Middleman, founder, president and CEO at Freedom Mortgage. Your interest rates are going to be higher for longer ,” he said. This year will look a lot like last year.

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Housing Wire

APRIL 26, 2024

I think one is, when you’re talking about managing liquidity in a period when interest rates go up as fast as they did, we weren’t hedging our pipeline. I think a lot of people in this industry probably got caught sideways because they had never seen a rate environment where rates went up. It’s really that simple.

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 6, 2024

I believe this was the most overlooked housing story of the last year because even as mortgage rates rose all the way to 8% , the home price cut percentage data was always about 4% lower year over year. Now that mortgage rates have fallen and as we start the brand new year, we need to focus on this data line more.

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Inventory New Listings Housing Market Mortgage 542

Housing Wire

APRIL 26, 2024

year over year in March, although growth in listings is expected to subside due to the lock-in effect of higher mortgage rates. HousingWire’s Mortgage Rates Center showed that the average 30-year conventional fixed rate was 7.56% on Friday — up from 6.83% at the start of the year. “My from 2018 to 2023.

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Housing Wire

MARCH 16, 2024

The 10-year yield is at the same critical point as last year before the Fed went hawkish and sent mortgage rates to 8% and the 10-year yield to 5%. A serious 10-year yield and mortgage rate talk My work on housing moves around the 10-year yield and the economics that move that. Could this happen again?

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Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 10, 2024

This calls into question a mortgage rate lockdown, as mortgage rates are also higher year over year. So, we need to be very mindful of the weekly data to get clues on the marketplace. However, this data can move stronger in either direction when mortgage rates rise or fall aggressively. What is all this data pointing to?

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Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 17, 2024

Will mortgage rates break toward 8% again, making another 2024 data line that looks like a carbon copy of 2023? It’s not part of my 2024 forecast, but since the Federal Reserve likes playing with fire , let’s look at where we are with mortgage rates and their impact on weekly housing data. Serious mortgage rate talk!

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Mortgage Inventory New Listings Housing Market 525

Housing Wire

MARCH 8, 2024

Everyone was waiting to see if this week’s jobs report would send mortgage rates higher, which is what happened last month. The Federal Reserve ’s fear of wage growth spiraling out of control hasn’t materialized for over two years now and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%. Today, we are at 157,808,000. percent, the U.S.

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 20, 2024

Housing inventory, new listing data and mortgage rates are all rising, but the price cut data percentages are falling. I will watch for rising mortgage rates to see if they change the weekly data. I will watch for rising mortgage rates to see if they change the weekly data. I talked about this very topic on CNBC a few days ago.

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Inventory Mortgage New Listings Sellers 540

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 2, 2023

Mortgage rates almost fell below 7%, the 10-year yield is below 4.25% again, and people are seriously talking about Fed rate cuts in 2024. Mortgage rates have fallen by almost 1% in a short time, and it has created four straight weeks of positive purchase application data. Mortgage rates and the 10-year yield We are back!

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 5, 2024

Even though the headline number on the report today beat estimates, we are entering a new phase of the economic cycle, which means you need to know where to look to get clues for a recession. Here are my three key points on the labor market recovery since I retired my COVID-19 recovery model on Dec. 9, 2020: 1. percent, the U.S.

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Housing Wire

JUNE 9, 2023

Those who know my work over the last 10 years know that I have Batman/Joker relationship with the housing crash people, because they never stop. In 2022 it was all about finding a point in time when I thought mortgage rates would fall, which was key to understanding how the purchase application data would react to lower mortgage rates.

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Inventory Housing Market New Listings Mortgage 545

Housing Wire

JANUARY 13, 2024

As you can see, we are still a bit away from my ultimate goal of having total active listings back to 2019 levels. However, this data line accelerates when mortgage rates rise and demand gets hit harder. We can grow new listings from these depressed levels and get more demand. 2022 21.7%

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Inventory New Listings Retail Mortgage 530

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 9, 2024

After enduring challenges stemming from higher interest rates, stricter qualifications and broader industry consolidation, loan officers seem to be optimistic about how things have progressed in the early portion of 2024. I was getting some more direct inquiries and a few more referrals, so things started to get moving a little bit.

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Housing Wire

JULY 7, 2023

The 10-year yield and mortgage rates have been rising close to the 2023 high as some labor data shows that the honey badger labor market is still growing. To make things even more complicated, the spreads between the 30-year mortgage rate and the 10-year yield keep getting wider. From the St. is too much for Americans.

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Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2024

Mortgage rates had a chance to break to new highs this year, but the Federal Reserve took a moderate tone at the last Fed meeting. We saw the benefit of lower mortgage rates with the last two existing home sales reports, which showed growth. Then mortgage rates rose, facilitating five weeks of negative purchase application data.

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Mortgage Inventory New Listings Housing Market 511

Housing Wire

JANUARY 28, 2024

But, even with mortgage rates higher this year than last year, demand is rising. Purchase application data As we get closer to the end of the first month of 2024, forward-looking purchase application data looks good. Last year at this time we got a boost in demand with rates heading toward 6%.

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Inventory New Listings Mortgage Marketing 518

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 2, 2024

Better headline jobs were reported, with positive revisions and more robust wage growth, which caught bond traders off guard and sent bond yields and mortgage rates higher today. The trend looks right to me, so let me explain my take. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September of 2022.

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Mortgage Retail Marketing Business 389

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 8, 2023

After today’s jobs report , which showed unemployment at 3.7%, it’s now clear that the Federal Reserve does not need to create a job-loss recession to bring down the growth rate of inflation. The Fed has much to answer for after their massive rate hikes and quantitative tightening policy. economy had already started to recover.

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Retail Housing Market Marketing Government 525

Housing Wire

AUGUST 17, 2023

The 10-year yield closed today above my key level of 4.25%: Does that mean mortgage rates will hit 8%? To understand what’s happening, here’s how I look at the bond market and mortgage rates in my forecast for 2023. That 10-year yield channel equates to 5.75%- 7.25% mortgage rates. of the time.

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Mortgage Retail Marketing 369

Housing Wire

MAY 10, 2023

The massive inflation and double-digit mortgage rates of the 1970s and early 1980s seem to haunt the Federal Reserve , which wants to cool the economy and even provoke a job-loss recession to avoid that scenario. How did mortgage rates react? 27 , I made the case for lower mortgage rates and bond yields in 2023.

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Housing Wire

APRIL 17, 2024

My Social Security and retirement income is fixed at about $5,600 per month,” he said. “I for 49 years, and my property taxes rise quickly. My property taxes are about $16,000 for 2023-24, and likely will be $20,000 or more for 2025; home sales drive up my property taxes, not improvements. “The

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Housing Wire

APRIL 23, 2023

We didn’t see too much volatility in mortgage rates last week, but purchase apps declined in reaction to rates rising two weeks ago. Purchase application data was down 10% , keeping the tradition of higher rates impacting this weekly date negatively intact. I hope the seasonal bottom was two weeks ago.

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Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 545

Housing Wire

APRIL 18, 2024

Existing home sales fell in today’s report , which isn’t surprising, but one headline that shocked some people was that home prices are still up year over year, even with higher inventory and higher mortgage rates. from February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.19 This scenario is similar to 2023 when rates fell.

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Inventory Housing Market New Listings Buyers 484

Housing Wire

AUGUST 5, 2022

What a crazy day for my economic model! On the same day, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that we’ve recovered all the jobs lost to COVID-19 and I am raising my sixth recession red flag. From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 528,000 in July, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.5

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Development Housing Market Marketing Business 544

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 13, 2022

The premise of a mortgage rate lockdown is simple: so many American households have such low mortgage rates that some will never move once rates rise, which then locks up housing inventory. We are getting closer to that period where total inventory traditionally falls. in 2021 and as high as 6.25% in 2022.

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Mortgage Inventory New Listings Sellers 518

Housing Wire

APRIL 30, 2023

The other focus should be where mortgage rates go; only a little happened last week. Mortgage rates, once again, didn’t move too much this last week; the bottom level range was 6.50%, while the top was 6.67%; we ended the week at 6.59%. The fear of not having an increase in inventory this spring should be put to rest.

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Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 518

Housing Wire

JANUARY 29, 2024

Homebuyers are getting some relief in 2024 as mortgage rates recede from their 20-year high point of last October. mortgage rate, the prospective buyer with a $3,000 budget can afford a $453,000 home. mortgage rate could have afforded a $416,000 home. Mortgage rates stabilized last week, averaging 6.69% as of Jan.

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Buyers Mortgage Agents Investors 372

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 28, 2023

31, 2022, that mortgage rates would hit 8% in 2023, you would reasonably assume housing inventory would sky rocket higher, home prices would fall noticeably, and the number of price cuts would be higher year over year. When rates rise and demand gets weaker, the percentage of homes with price cuts can grow.

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Inventory Mortgage New Listings Marketing 503

Housing Wire

JUNE 13, 2023

Inflation was running over 9% last year and the headline inflation growth rate has cooled off a lot recently. I don’t believe they will, but the growth rate of headline inflation falling is good enough for them to pause rate hikes tomorrow. What does this mean for mortgage rates ? So far this year, this has been the case.

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Marketing Mortgage Housing Market 485

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 14, 2023

Given the hotter inflation reported in Tuesday’s CPI data , can mortgage rates go above the 2022 peak of 7.37%? A lot of times, on days when big economic reports are released, you can get wild intraday action but not have much happening by the end of the day. The data isn’t there yet to even have that conversation.

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Mortgage Housing Market Marketing Retail 457

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 3, 2023

We had a crazy jobs week last week, with tons of data that the Federal Reserve was happy to see, but did those labor reports mean we’ve hit peak mortgage rates for 2023? Mortgage rates did fall, purchase application data rose and new listings data came back to trend. New listing data over the past several weeks: Aug.

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Mortgage Inventory New Listings Marketing 453

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 13, 2023

The housing market experienced more volatility last week, with housing inventory dropping as mortgage rates moved higher. The start of 2023 has been good, considering mortgage rates have stayed above 6% most of the time. I am keeping an eye on how much growth we can get with mortgage rates over 6%. Since Nov.

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Inventory Housing Market Mortgage Marketing 501

Housing Wire

MAY 21, 2023

The 10-year yield rose noticeably, sending mortgage rates near 7% right in the heart of the spring selling season. And purchase apps had a weekly negative print, continuing the 2023 theme of higher rates impacting the data. Mortgage rates rose last week as we started the week at 6.55% but ended at 6.90%. million to 1.04

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Housing Market Marketing Inventory New Listings 493

Housing Wire

APRIL 22, 2024

But at this time, it just didn’t feel like the right mix, the right fit for me and my team.” I don’t want to leave any seniors hanging, so we’re going to get those loans cleaned up before we move. And there are benefits in high interest rate or low interest rate environments.

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Business Lending Mortgage Retail 374

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 21, 2023

The haunted house ride with the bond market and mortgage rates continued this week, but one housing data line hasn’t been spooked. New listing data appears unafraid of the mortgage rate ghost story over the last few months. As we can see in the chart below, it is very steady, considering how crazy rates have been lately.

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