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Sluggish net new listings signal that the lock-in effect is not over

Inman

percent decline in net new listings and a 2 percent decrease in contract signings, driven by mortgage rate fluctuations, according to HouseCanary. Despite a rise in total inventory compared to 2022 and 2023, the market is still behind historical inventory averages as sellers avoid entering a higher rate environment.

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The 2023 housing market is at odds with itself

Housing Wire

The number of new listings coming on the market this spring is lower than it has been in more than a decade. Sales and new pending contracts are below pre-pandemic levels. What can we expect in 2023? At the same time, there are some key trends I think will characterize the housing market in 2023.

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Pending home sales surged in December: NAR

Housing Wire

For comparison, the index is benchmarked at a reading of 100 based on 2001 contract activity. New home sales , another measure of contract signings, rose 8% in December on the back of declining mortgage rates. The trade organization projects a 13% increase in existing home sales between 2023 and 2024 for an annualized pace of 4.62

Contracts 448
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US home prices continued their rally in September

Housing Wire

home prices continued their rally in September 2023,” Craig Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI , said in a statement.“Our in September, marking eight consecutive monthly gains since prices bottomed in January 2023. Simultaneously, new listing volume is up at the end of November, which might cool home prices down.

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Existing-home sales have nowhere to go but up in 2024? 

Housing Wire

Homes typically go under contract a month or two before the closing, which means the October data largely reflects purchase decisions made in August and September. At the same time, existing inventory has likely already bottomed out and new listings are keeping steady despite normal seasonal declines.

Inventory 376
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Housing inventory falls under 1M again as sales collapse

Housing Wire

Outside of that time period, everything else from 1982 to 2023 was normal. During that period, we saw new listing data decline. However, in 2020 new listing data came back, and we don’t want to see the new listings continue to decline this year — that would be a double negative for the housing market.

Inventory 536
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Housing Market Tracker: Mortgage rates and inventory fall together

Housing Wire

Active inventory fell 1,109, and new listing data made a lovely comeback week to week but was still noticeably down year over year. In my 2023 forecast, I said that if the economy stays firm, the 10-year yield range should be between 3.21% and 4.25% , equating to 5.75% to 7.25% mortgage rates.

Inventory 437