Remove 10 job-growth-slows-in-september
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Are we seeing cracks in the labor market?

Housing Wire

Slowing job growth doesn’t mean a recession, but today’s jobs report tells me that the significant job gains we were accustomed to in the early part of the COVID-19 recovery period are ending, which ties nicely to how I thought labor would recover after COVID. Job openings should get to 10 million. (We

Marketing 491
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The Fed was wrong about jobs and inflation

Housing Wire

After today’s jobs report , which showed unemployment at 3.7%, it’s now clear that the Federal Reserve does not need to create a job-loss recession to bring down the growth rate of inflation. In that next phase of recovery, I said job openings should get to 10 million. economy had already started to recover.

Retail 525
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The labor report gives the Fed a clear pathway to land the plane

Housing Wire

Today’s jobs report beat estimates , but the internals show the labor market is softening, as the Federal Reserve wants. The data shows that wage growth is cooling down and the job opening quits rate is below pre-COVID-19 levels. Since 2022, I haven’t believed the Fed would pivot until the labor market breaks.

Marketing 475
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Mortgage rates fall as labor market normalizes

Housing Wire

Everyone was waiting to see if this week’s jobs report would send mortgage rates higher, which is what happened last month. Instead, the 10-year yield had a muted response after the headline number beat estimates, but we have negative job revisions from previous months. Today, we are at 157,808,000. percent, the U.S.

Marketing 493
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Jobs data sends mortgage rates higher

Housing Wire

Today we got a jobs Friday hat trick! Better headline jobs were reported, with positive revisions and more robust wage growth, which caught bond traders off guard and sent bond yields and mortgage rates higher today. By December the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when would get the jobs lost back.

Mortgage 424
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Will labor data send mortgage rates to 8%?

Housing Wire

The 10-year yield and mortgage rates have been rising close to the 2023 high as some labor data shows that the honey badger labor market is still growing. To make things even more complicated, the spreads between the 30-year mortgage rate and the 10-year yield keep getting wider. Job openings should get to 10 million in this recovery.

Mortgage 413
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CPI report is good news for mortgage rates

Housing Wire

The massive inflation and double-digit mortgage rates of the 1970s and early 1980s seem to haunt the Federal Reserve , which wants to cool the economy and even provoke a job-loss recession to avoid that scenario. After the report, what did the 10-year yield do? The inflation data lags, so I knew it would take time, but it happened.

Mortgage 533