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The awesome power of high mortgage rates

Housing Wire

Bad for sellers Prospective home sellers may not notice incremental changes in mortgage rates. percentage points—sellers take notice. Facing these realities, many would-be sellers decide to stay put. This is clear in the chart below, which shows the year-over-year percent change in the four-week average of new listings.

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How housing credit is shaping housing inventory

Housing Wire

Since most sellers are buyers, inventory should be stable if demand is stable. Now, nobody is listing their homes to sell and buy unless they’re 100% pre-qualified. On top of more legitimate buyers, we fixed the credit markets, meaning housing credit looks fantastic. So you can see why we have so few stressed sellers.

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Coastal California metros were the priciest  in March: Zillow

Housing Wire

These metros also continue to grapple with below-average inventory recovery, maintaining pressure on buyers. New Orleans, San Antonio, Tampa, Orlando and Jacksonville are among the locales that posted the slowest month-over-month price growth in March. Sold homes were listed for a week or less in 17 major metros.

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Are we seeing a mortgage rate lockdown?

Housing Wire

Typically we have a natural set of new listings each year; inventory rises in the spring and summer and then falls in the fall and winter. It wasn’t the rate move that caught my attention — it was the new listing data. As you can see below, that sharp move to 6.25% caused new listing data to stall at first.

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The 2023 housing market is at odds with itself

Housing Wire

On the one hand, elevated mortgage rates continue to erode buyers’ purchasing power, and in some markets, home prices are falling. The number of new listings coming on the market this spring is lower than it has been in more than a decade. Sales and new pending contracts are below pre-pandemic levels.

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Why purchase application data is below 2008 levels

Housing Wire

million, something that couldn’t happen from 2008-2019 because we didn’t have the demographic profile to get to that level until household formation grew. We saw this happen in 2013-2014 and 2018-2019. New listing data is down 5% year to date, as you can imagine. Right on cue, 2020 came and we hit the 300 level.

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Even with low inventory, expect a strong 2021 housing market

Housing Wire

Total home sales are outpacing new listings by a wide margin every month, and real estate tech company Homesnap foresees the shortage continuing in 2021 unless more sellers enter the market. The divide between supply and demand is striking: compared to last year, total new listings increased.22%,

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