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Why purchase application data is below 2008 levels

Housing Wire

Purchase application data is now below 2008 levels! But I need to explain why this level has more in common with 2014 housing data than the credit stress markets of 2005-2008, and why you should care. Post-2012, whenever mortgage rates rise, existing home sales always trend below 5 million. That happened in March of this year.

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Housing inventory defied all predictions in 2023

Housing Wire

Going into 2023, people thought housing inventory would skyrocket, home prices would crash, and we would see the housing market of 2008 all over again. Looking back on 2023, the inventory story was a big surprise even as mortgage rates headed toward 8%, as the data below will show. 9, 2022, and they’ll be ready for what’s coming next.

Inventory 512
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How housing credit is shaping housing inventory

Housing Wire

After 2010, qualified mortgage laws were in place, meaning everyone getting a mortgage has to be able to repay the loan. You can see the drastic change this made in the Mortgage Bankers Association Credit Availability index , below, which skyrocketed in 2005 and 2006 before an epic collapse in 2008.

Inventory 505
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Are we seeing a mortgage rate lockdown?

Housing Wire

The premise of a mortgage rate lockdown is simple: so many American households have such low mortgage rates that some will never move once rates rise, which then locks up housing inventory. Typically we have a natural set of new listings each year; inventory rises in the spring and summer and then falls in the fall and winter.

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Where are mortgage rates headed?

Housing Wire

Last week ended with a wild ride for mortgage rates. We anticipated the two inflation reports could help mortgage rates, however, we had a bad bond auction last Thursday, and the 10-year yield rose sharply. This pushed yields higher Thursday and Friday to move mortgage rates to 7.19%. We saw an example of that last week.

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Opinion: Riding the wave

Housing Wire

Thanks to high mortgage rates , mortgage refinance rates, and even higher home prices , the vibe among homebuyers has been fairly bleak these past couple months. In Denver in particular, new listings increased 29.12% month-over-month and 22.63% year-over-year. To that I say, timing is everything in real estate.

Inventory 423
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Housing Market Tracker: Mortgage rates and inventory fall together

Housing Wire

These events led to lower mortgage rates and increased purchase application data last week, but decreased housing inventory. Here’s a quick rundown of the last week: The 10-year yield had a Lord of Rings battle at a critical technical level, pushing mortgage rates lower at the end of the week with no real break in the bond market.

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