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Why purchase application data is below 2008 levels

Housing Wire

Purchase application data is now below 2008 levels! But I need to explain why this level has more in common with 2014 housing data than the credit stress markets of 2005-2008, and why you should care. New listing data is down 5% year to date, as you can imagine. Right on cue, 2020 came and we hit the 300 level.

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Housing inventory defied all predictions in 2023

Housing Wire

Going into 2023, people thought housing inventory would skyrocket, home prices would crash, and we would see the housing market of 2008 all over again. The speed at which home sales crashed in 2022 was historic, but in 2023, no matter how high mortgage rates got, new listings data didn’t create a new leg lower.

Inventory 506
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Why home-price growth is still up 18% year over year

Housing Wire

This means all those men and women since 2012 who have been saying its housing 2008 all over again on their YouTube , Twitter, Facebook and other social media outlets simply don’t have the proper training to talk about housing economics. Case in point, purchase application data is already below 2008 levels today. million listings.

Inventory 384
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Housing Market Tracker: Inventory finally rises

Housing Wire

Here’s a quick rundown of the last week: Active listings rose by 8,546 , and new listing data showed some growth. If that is the case, then this week’s gain in active inventory and new listings needs to be taken with a grain of salt until we get next week’s data. However, I will take what I can now.

Inventory 545
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Are we seeing a mortgage rate lockdown?

Housing Wire

Typically we have a natural set of new listings each year; inventory rises in the spring and summer and then falls in the fall and winter. It wasn’t the rate move that caught my attention — it was the new listing data. As you can see below, that sharp move to 6.25% caused new listing data to stall at first.

Mortgage 519
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Have we found the bottom in existing home sales?

Housing Wire

We have had two historic events that created a waterfall dive in demand recently; we now have precise data showing new listing data declining with those events, which shows how important that data line is to housing demand. Mortgage rates spiked in March, and then the new listing data started to decline at the end of June.

Inventory 520
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Days on market grow despite low inventory for existing homes

Housing Wire

I didn’t have to worry about this in the previous expansion — as my long-term work stated for a decade, the years 2008-2019, would have the weakest housing recovery ever. Seasonal impacts are the norm with housing, and new listing data is negative 6% year to date. NAR lists the current inventory at 1.22

Inventory 472