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New listings data falls for third week in a row 

Housing Wire

New listings data has been moving lower over the last few weeks. The moves haven’t been significant and our weekly pending contracts data picked up this week. But, we need to see more growth in new listings data just to grow from 2023 levels. We have a much more normal marketplace in 2023 and 2024.

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Mortgage rates hold steady at key level for now

Housing Wire

Mortgage rates have risen recently but they could be much worse than they are today. Mortgage rates and the 10-year yield The 10-year yield is the key for housing in 2024. The most important data line for me, along with mortgage rates , is jobless claims data because I value labor data over inflation. That hasn’t happened.

Mortgage 461
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Housing Market Tracker: Mortgage rates and inventory fall together

Housing Wire

These events led to lower mortgage rates and increased purchase application data last week, but decreased housing inventory. Here’s a quick rundown of the last week: The 10-year yield had a Lord of Rings battle at a critical technical level, pushing mortgage rates lower at the end of the week with no real break in the bond market.

Inventory 439
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Existing home sales are working from a historic low bar

Housing Wire

It happened in 2008 and then didn’t happen again until 2023. We don’t have any data that shows sales are crashing from this low level: this is key when looking at the future because it does give us a place to grow sales as long as mortgage rates fall. From NAR : Existing-home sales waned 1.0% All four U.S.

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Changing homebuyer expectations are slowing the housing market

Housing Wire

It’s not unusual for a little jump in new listings in September. Obviously, mortgage rates have been stubbornly over 7% for a couple of months. That’s a change in expectation of mortgage rates. Buyers early in 2023 had slightly lower rates than now and were optimistic that mortgage rates would go lower still.

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The homebuilders got lucky this time

Housing Wire

There is one simple reason for this: it’s not 2008. The truth is that if mortgage rates fell below 5.875% and kept going lower, everyone’s housing predictions would need to be revised this year because the builders can sell their homes with lower mortgage rates. Let me be honest here: we got lucky as a country.

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How much will home prices climb over the next year?

Housing Wire

Even as mortgage rates rose, and affordability was pushed out of reach for many potential homebuyers, there are still sufficient buyers who can afford these prices and these rates. After the mortgage rate spike in September 2022, we got significantly more bearish on home prices for 2023. If mortgage rates increase to the 7.5%

Inventory 355