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The 2021 housing market recap by Logan Mohtashami

Housing Wire

Housing permits are growing and this is a good thing for the economy and construction jobs. While I have never been a housing construction boom guy because mature economies typically don’t have a construction boom, the fact that permits are keeping their uptrend is a big positive for the United States of America.

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Logan Mohtashami on why this is a savagely unhealthy housing market

Housing Wire

HousingWire: How will rising rates affect new home construction? Housing construction will be impacted if the monthly supply for new homes breaks above 6.5 The only thing that I believe creates balance in the housing market is higher rates because the sellers and builders have too much pricing power in this low inventory environment.

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Comparing this housing market recession to 2008

Housing Wire

The housing market of 2002-2005 had four years of sales growth facilitated by credit. As we can see below, the purchase application data had four years of growth, peaking in 2005 and then collapsing. However, what isn’t identical is that we have not had a massive sales boom like we saw from 2002-2005. million in 2005.

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New home sales are up 28% — but don’t believe the hype

Housing Wire

million level we saw in 2005. However, it does show that the builders are in a much better spot to deal with their massive supply, compared to the 2005-2008 period. They are good at selling their inventory much quicker than existing home sellers, who might still be stingy on prices. months are under construction, 1.86

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New home sales defy recession calls

Housing Wire

They’re effective sellers and don’t want to create a backlog of completed units for sale because that would ruin their business model. As we can see in the chart below, new home sales aren’t booming like what we saw at the peak of 2005 but are getting back to trend sales growth from the bottom we saw when rates got 5% in 2018.

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Higher rates flip the homebuilders’ fortunes (again)

Housing Wire

If sales are working from an elevated number, like what we saw from 2003-2005, it’s a different subject altogether. months of the supply is active listings, 68K 5 months of the supply is still under construction, 280K 1.6 The builders will pull back on construction when the supply is 6.5 When supply is 4.3 When supply is 4.4

Inventory 477
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Purchase apps are at 2009 level: where’s the inventory?

Housing Wire

That’s not the case now because we have’t had a credit boom post-2010 as we did from 2002 to 2005. However, the spike in inventory that we saw from 2006 to 2011 can be attributed to the massive credit bubble we had from 2002 to 2005. Credit stress was evident from 2005 to 2008. What is going on here?

Inventory 519