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The new home sales recession continues

Housing Wire

So for now, the builders will take their time with the homes under construction and make sure they offer enough incentives to unload the new home supply they’re dealing with. can’t have a credit sales boom like we saw from 2002-2005. This time, we have less production of homes and more multifamily construction. months and above.

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Comparing this housing market recession to 2008

Housing Wire

The housing market of 2002-2005 had four years of sales growth facilitated by credit. As we can see below, the purchase application data had four years of growth, peaking in 2005 and then collapsing. However, what isn’t identical is that we have not had a massive sales boom like we saw from 2002-2005. million in 2005.

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New home sales defy recession calls

Housing Wire

They’re effective sellers and don’t want to create a backlog of completed units for sale because that would ruin their business model. This means new homes — with all the bells and whistles — can peel some buyers from the existing home sales market, especially if they pay down mortgage rates. Now on to the report.

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Purchase apps are at 2009 level: where’s the inventory?

Housing Wire

That’s not the case now because we have’t had a credit boom post-2010 as we did from 2002 to 2005. However, the spike in inventory that we saw from 2006 to 2011 can be attributed to the massive credit bubble we had from 2002 to 2005. Credit stress was evident from 2005 to 2008. What is going on here?

Inventory 503
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Higher rates flip the homebuilders’ fortunes (again)

Housing Wire

They don’t ever have to have the conversation about how low their total payment is in the new home they’re buying, unlike some of their buyers (which explains higher cancellation rates). If sales are working from an elevated number, like what we saw from 2003-2005, it’s a different subject altogether. When supply is 4.3

Inventory 438
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The homebuilders got lucky this time

Housing Wire

In an odd twist of fate, the delays due to COVID-19 are currently an infrastructure and jobs program for Americans in the construction industry. As you can see below, housing completions are slowly moving along; the homebuilders have more new homes under construction that they haven’t even started yet than active new homes for sale.

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New home sales proving Wall Street was wrong 

Housing Wire

According to this theory, we have more homes under construction than any time in history. As we can see in the chart below, it’s not like the new home sales market is booming at all; we aren’t anywhere near the top of sales in 2005 or in 2020. months and above, the builders will pull back on construction. percent (±15.2

Inventory 469