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Logan Mohtashami unpacks the slow train wreck that’s been happening in housing inventory

Housing Wire

HW+ Member: What’s the number one question you are getting from the real estate agent community on the economy and housing market? Unlike the housing bubble years, where credit pushed home prices with demand, we just had a raw inventory shortage with demand picking up for sure, but nothing like we saw from 2002-to 2005.

Training 400
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Solid job growth defies recession talk — for now

Housing Wire

Look at the jobs data and which sector added jobs in March: Construction jobs came in positively, but retail trade took a big hit. Job openings in construction and manufacturing have picked up recently. Months are homes under construction 0.8 And the unemployment rate currently stands at 3.6%. Ghost Supply 2.2

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How will rising rates affect new home construction?

Housing Wire

Census Bureau released their construction report for February, showing a positive trend in housing construction data with a lovely print in housing permits at 1,859,000 and housing starts at 1,769,000. So far, housing construction has done well during 2020-2022 considering the economic drama. Today, the U.S.

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New home sales make it clear: Housing is in a recession

Housing Wire

This data line confirms what we all know to be the case: The housing market, at least as it relates to construction, is in a recession. We talked about this in March , and even last year, when I wrote about the problem with the housing construction boom premise. “I don’t expect a boom in housing construction.

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Comparing this housing market recession to 2008

Housing Wire

The housing sector — especially real estate and mortgage — has seen significant layoffs , while the general economy will create more than 4 million jobs in 2022. The housing market of 2002-2005 had four years of sales growth facilitated by credit. Housing demand has fallen noticeably this year. Production falls. Incomes go down.

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Purchase apps are at 2009 level: where’s the inventory?

Housing Wire

That’s not the case now because we have’t had a credit boom post-2010 as we did from 2002 to 2005. However, the spike in inventory that we saw from 2006 to 2011 can be attributed to the massive credit bubble we had from 2002 to 2005. We have more housing starts under construction now than in recent history!

Inventory 501
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New home sales report boosted by positive revisions

Housing Wire

It gives an idea of what to expect for housing construction. months and above, the builders will pull back on construction. The builders will pull back on construction growth if new homes sales start to head lower. The MBA purchase application data from 2002-2005 is much different than what we have seen from 2018-2022.