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Logan Mohtashami unpacks the slow train wreck that’s been happening in housing inventory

Housing Wire

HW+ Member: What’s the number one question you are getting from the real estate agent community on the economy and housing market? Since 2014 inventory has been falling slowly for years, then here come years 2020-2024, our most prominent housing demographic patch ever in history with low mortgage rates. Ghost Supply 2.2

Training 424
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Solid job growth defies recession talk — for now

Housing Wire

Look at the jobs data and which sector added jobs in March: Construction jobs came in positively, but retail trade took a big hit. Job openings in construction and manufacturing have picked up recently. Months are homes under construction 0.8 And the unemployment rate currently stands at 3.6%. Ghost Supply 2.2

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How will rising rates affect new home construction?

Housing Wire

Census Bureau released their construction report for February, showing a positive trend in housing construction data with a lovely print in housing permits at 1,859,000 and housing starts at 1,769,000. So far, housing construction has done well during 2020-2022 considering the economic drama. Today, the U.S.

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New home sales make it clear: Housing is in a recession

Housing Wire

This data line confirms what we all know to be the case: The housing market, at least as it relates to construction, is in a recession. We talked about this in March , and even last year, when I wrote about the problem with the housing construction boom premise. “I don’t expect a boom in housing construction.

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Comparing this housing market recession to 2008

Housing Wire

The housing sector — especially real estate and mortgage — has seen significant layoffs , while the general economy will create more than 4 million jobs in 2022. Then we had the biggest mortgage rate shock in recent history and yet even with that, we will have over 5 million total home sales this year. Production falls.

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Homebuilders are done until mortgage rates fall

Housing Wire

Tuesday’s housing starts report clearly shows that homebuilders are going to be done with single-family construction until mortgage rates fall. If it wasn’t for solid rental demand boosting multifamily construction this year — 18% year to date —this data line would have looked much worse.

Mortgage 531
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New home sales report boosted by positive revisions

Housing Wire

It gives an idea of what to expect for housing construction. months and above, the builders will pull back on construction. The real question is how much higher mortgage rates will bite the most sensitive sector to rates: new homes. The builders will pull back on construction growth if new homes sales start to head lower.