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How home-price growth has damaged the housing market

Housing Wire

This data line lags the current housing market as it’s a few months old. Since 2014, we’ve not seen the credit housing boom that we saw from 2002-2005. The housing market can’t replicate the type of massive credit expansion we saw from 2002-2005, so the price-growth story has more to do with inventory collapsing to all-time lows.

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The 2022 housing market: A tale of two halves

Housing Wire

Marty Green thinks of the housing market in 2022 as two very different movies. ” Houses were selling at a fever pitch in a matter of days, with multiple offers, waived contingencies and buyers paying $100,000(!) But the housing market in the second half of 2022? A mortgage rate lockdown freezes the housing market.

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Is the savagely unhealthy housing market back?

Housing Wire

Just when I thought days on market were returning to normal, that number for existing homes fell back down to 22 days. If the days on the market are at a teenager level or even lower, it’s never a good sign for the housing market. This is why the days on the market are so low historically after 2020. million, up from 1.03

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The housing market is now savagely unhealthy

Housing Wire

To get the housing market to be sane and normal again, we need inventory to get back in a range between 1.52 – 1.93 million ; this is still historically low, but this gives the housing market a breather from the madness that we see today. One of the critical data lines that I want to see improve this year is days on market.

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US home prices continued to rally in July 2023

Housing Wire

. “This is about the same rate of price growth that occurred during the 2002 through 2006 period when subprime lending drove exuberant housing demand. “But that is where the similarities end. Mortgage holders are well-qualified and subprime loans are rare. ”

Inventory 453
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This savagely unhealthy housing market needs higher rates

Housing Wire

million , with double-digit home-price growth driving a housing market that is still savagely unhealthy. Spoiler: If you haven’t realized that the housing market since 2012 has been trolled out by professional grifters who don’t ever forecast sales, that is on you. million and 1.93 Today inventory levels are at 1.02 I use the 1.52-1.93

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Lower mortgage rates are stabilizing the housing market

Housing Wire

Now, with five weeks of data in front of us, we can say they have stabilized the market. As you can see from the chart above, the last several years have not had the FOMO (fear of missing out) housing credit boom we saw from 2002-2005. The question then was: What would lower mortgage rates do to this data? Total inventory levels.