Housing Wire

MARCH 9, 2024

We survived jobs week and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell talking to Congress, with mortgage rates ending the week below 7%. But will mortgage rates keep heading lower? Mortgage rates and the 10-year yield The 10-year yield is the key for all my housing work, so I focus on it religiously. We haven’t broken either yet.

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Mortgage Inventory New Listings Housing Market 445

Housing Wire

JANUARY 20, 2024

Housing inventory, new listing data and mortgage rates are all rising, but the price cut data percentages are falling. However, at the current trend, we will break below the lows in the price cut percentage data that we saw in 2023 in the spring of this year. So far, higher mortgage rates haven’t changed the data yet.

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Inventory Mortgage New Listings Sellers 537

Housing Wire

APRIL 27, 2024

Active weekly housing inventory growth slowed slightly last week, but it’s still running at a healthier clip than in 2023. I have a simple model with mortgage rates being above 7.25%: weekly inventory data should grow between 11,000-17,000 per week. When mortgage rates increase, demand falls and the price-cut percentage grows.

Inventory 445

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 445

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 2, 2023

Mortgage rates almost fell below 7%, the 10-year yield is below 4.25% again, and people are seriously talking about Fed rate cuts in 2024. Mortgage rates have fallen by almost 1% in a short time, and it has created four straight weeks of positive purchase application data. Mortgage rates and the 10-year yield We are back!

Mortgage 542

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Sellers 542

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 25, 2023

Lower mortgage rates tend to take housing supply off the market and demand has been picking up lately as rates have fallen. However, the recent drop in housing inventory has more to do with seasonality factors than lower mortgage rates. The question now is what will inventory look like in the spring if mortgage rates keep falling?

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Inventory Mortgage New Listings Buyers 523

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 9, 2023

The most underreported housing story I’ve seen this year is that even with mortgage rates rising to 8%, the number of homes that took price cuts before they sold was 4% below 2022 levels. This happened even with higher home prices and higher mortgage rates in 2023. Now lets take a look at the weekly inventory data.

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Mortgage Inventory New Listings Sellers 519

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 4, 2024

How will mortgage rates impact seasonal inventory in 2024? Also, when mortgage rates rise, the inventory peak happens later in the year. New listings were trending at the lowest levels ever in 2023, but that should not be the case in 2024. Is the seasonal bottom going to happen later than I want?

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Inventory Mortgage New Listings Housing Market 496

Housing Wire

MARCH 6, 2024

Housing professionals already know that high mortgage rates are bad for business. But with mortgage rates ascending past 7% according to HousingWire’s Mortgage Rates Center , those hopes have so far been dashed in 2024. Bad for sellers Prospective home sellers may not notice incremental changes in mortgage rates.

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Mortgage Sellers New Listings Buyers 387

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 4, 2023

After mortgage rates spiked to 8% in October, causing a riot in the real estate industry, we had an epic move lower in mortgage rates last week. Does this mean we’ve hit the peak in mortgage rates for this economic cycle? It looks like I will bat a whopping 0 in 2023 for my higher rates inventory growth level forecast.

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Mortgage Inventory New Listings Real Estate 456

Housing Wire

APRIL 20, 2024

Housing inventory finally hit my target level of growth last week with mortgage rates now over 7.25% , something I couldn’t get all last year. Of course, what is different this year versus last year is that new listing data is growing yearly instead of trending at the lowest levels recorded in history. 2022: 18.7% 2022: 18.7%

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Inventory New Listings Mortgage Finance 470

Inman

FEBRUARY 5, 2024

percent decline in net new listings and a 2 percent decrease in contract signings, driven by mortgage rate fluctuations, according to HouseCanary. Despite a rise in total inventory compared to 2022 and 2023, the market is still behind historical inventory averages as sellers avoid entering a higher rate environment.

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New Listings Contracts Inventory Real Estate 145

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 28, 2023

31, 2022, that mortgage rates would hit 8% in 2023, you would reasonably assume housing inventory would sky rocket higher, home prices would fall noticeably, and the number of price cuts would be higher year over year. If I had told you on Dec. Last year, the seasonal peak for inventory was Oct. 28 according to Altos Research.

Inventory 494

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Marketing 494

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 3, 2023

We had a crazy jobs week last week, with tons of data that the Federal Reserve was happy to see, but did those labor reports mean we’ve hit peak mortgage rates for 2023? Mortgage rates did fall, purchase application data rose and new listings data came back to trend. 18: 60,295 Aug. 25: 55,291 Sept.

Mortgage 448

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Marketing 448

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 18, 2023

Did the recent move lower in mortgage rates turn the housing market positive? With mortgage rates moving almost 75 basis points lower from the highs, does the data show that demand has improved? I talked about how much lower mortgage rates can go from here in this recent podcast.

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Mortgage Inventory New Listings Housing Market 446

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 30, 2023

Why are mortgage rates rising? The jobless claims data is my key 2023 economic data line for the bond market and mortgage rates because I don’t believe the Fed will pivot until the four-week moving average of jobless claims gets above 323,000. Mortgage rates went from 7.39% to a high of 7.65% and ended the week at 7.44%.

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Mortgage Inventory New Listings Government 477

Housing Wire

APRIL 6, 2024

Weekly housing inventory data — both active inventory and new listings — are prone to one-week moves that deviate from a trend, especially if people are going Easter egg hunting. So, the fact that active inventory and new listings data fell last week isn’t a big deal. However, for now, this is a plus for the U.S.

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Inventory New Listings Mortgage Housing Market 427

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 13, 2022

The premise of a mortgage rate lockdown is simple: so many American households have such low mortgage rates that some will never move once rates rise, which then locks up housing inventory. Typically we have a natural set of new listings each year; inventory rises in the spring and summer and then falls in the fall and winter.

Mortgage 515

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Sellers 515

Housing Wire

MARCH 30, 2024

The best housing story in 2024 is that inventory is growing — both active inventory and new listings. With mortgage rates at the current levels, inventory is still below my expectations, but it’s still such a positive story that I had to discuss it on CNBC last week. Still, new listing data is a positive story.

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Inventory New Listings Mortgage Housing Market 409

Housing Wire

MAY 4, 2023

On the one hand, elevated mortgage rates continue to erode buyers’ purchasing power, and in some markets, home prices are falling. The number of new listings coming on the market this spring is lower than it has been in more than a decade. What can we expect in 2023? Mortgage rate fatigue. Buyer disappointment.

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Housing Market Marketing Inventory Buyers 391

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 28, 2022

After the series wraps, join us on February 6 for the HW+ Virtual 2023 Forecast Event. Heading into 2023, it seems well within reason, given current trends, that a peak-to-trough decline in home prices of 10% is possible. . There will be two key differences between 2023 and 2010. People can afford to pay their mortgages.

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Housing Market Marketing Inventory Mortgage 486

Housing Wire

AUGUST 13, 2023

Last week ended with a wild ride for mortgage rates. We anticipated the two inflation reports could help mortgage rates, however, we had a bad bond auction last Thursday, and the 10-year yield rose sharply. This pushed yields higher Thursday and Friday to move mortgage rates to 7.19%. We saw an example of that last week.

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Mortgage Inventory New Listings Retail 360

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 10, 2024

So far in 2024, fewer homes are taking price cuts than in 2023, and this trend is on the verge of breaking below the 2023 lows in price cuts percentages. While weekly inventory is still falling, we have year-over-year growth in total active listing and new listings data.

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Inventory New Listings Retail Mortgage 504

Housing Wire

JANUARY 6, 2024

Will the number of homes that take a price cut this year drop below 2023 levels? I believe this was the most overlooked housing story of the last year because even as mortgage rates rose all the way to 8% , the home price cut percentage data was always about 4% lower year over year. Time to get this party started!

Inventory 540

Inventory New Listings Housing Market Mortgage 540

Housing Wire

MARCH 16, 2024

The 10-year yield is at the same critical point as last year before the Fed went hawkish and sent mortgage rates to 8% and the 10-year yield to 5%. A serious 10-year yield and mortgage rate talk My work on housing moves around the 10-year yield and the economics that move that. Could this happen again?

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Housing Market Inventory New Listings Marketing 438

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 24, 2023

Mortgage rates shot up last week after a hawkish Federal Reserve meeting, even though they didn’t raise rates. Mortgage rates did find some relief on Friday as bond yields headed lower. On housing inventory , new listings data saw a small decline last week, but active listings grew at a healthy clip.

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Mortgage Inventory New Listings Housing Market 419

Housing Wire

AUGUST 20, 2023

Last week, mortgage rates hit a 21st-century high, the 10-year yield closed slightly higher than my peak forecast for 2023 , and housing inventory growth was still slow. Weekly active listings rose by only 4,401. Mortgage rates went from 7.19%% to 7.37%. Purchase apps were flat week to week.

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Inventory Mortgage New Listings Sellers 367

Housing Wire

JANUARY 28, 2024

But, even with mortgage rates higher this year than last year, demand is rising. Once I make some holiday adjustments, we have eight weeks of a positive trend since mortgage rates fell from the 8% high , and as of now, the slightly higher rates we’ve seen recently haven’t impacted the data just yet. This is common in January.

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Inventory New Listings Mortgage Marketing 517

Housing Wire

MARCH 26, 2023

These events led to lower mortgage rates and increased purchase application data last week, but decreased housing inventory. Here’s a quick rundown of the last week: The 10-year yield had a Lord of Rings battle at a critical technical level, pushing mortgage rates lower at the end of the week with no real break in the bond market.

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Inventory Housing Market Marketing Mortgage 439

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 16, 2023

The last four weeks of new listings data have been the most volatile since mortgage rates breached 6% in 2022. One week, we had the biggest decline in new listings data all year, which might indicate Americans are giving up on listing their homes. What’s going on with housing inventory ?

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Inventory New Listings Housing Market Mortgage 462

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 16, 2023

The Federal Reserve played the good grinch for Christmas this year and delivered the best gift for homebuyers nationwide, leading to lower mortgage rates. The 10-year yield and mortgage rates fell together after the Fed meetings, which gave us mortgage rates under 7% last week. We have had an almost 1.5%

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Inventory New Listings Mortgage Law 534

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 11, 2023

Total housing inventory growth has been slow in 2023, but with rising mortgage rates over the last few months, inventory has grown a bit faster than average. The question now is: Have we hit the seasonal peak in inventory for 2023? But even with mortgage rates getting as high as 8%, we’ve yet to hit within that range.

Inventory 447

Inventory New Listings Mortgage Retail 447

Housing Wire

MARCH 12, 2023

Mortgage rates fell even though the jobs report was stronger than anticipated. They reversed their bearish take on bonds, and people started to buy the 10-year yield, causing mortgage rates to fall. As a result, mortgage rates, which climbed as high as 7.05% last week, fell to a low of 6.76% on Friday. million in 2023.

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Housing Market Mortgage Marketing Inventory 369

Housing Wire

MAY 21, 2023

The 10-year yield rose noticeably, sending mortgage rates near 7% right in the heart of the spring selling season. New listings data fell, however, active inventory grew. And purchase apps had a weekly negative print, continuing the 2023 theme of higher rates impacting the data. Purchase application data fell 4.8%

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Housing Market Marketing Inventory New Listings 482

Housing Wire

APRIL 26, 2023

Higher mortgage rates did not scare away potential homeowners last week. Plenty of buyers, but not enough homes for sale,” California-based mortgage loan officer Dan Stone, who works with hundreds of mortgage lenders, told HousingWire. The latest Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) report confirms Stone’s perceptions.

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Mortgage Loan Officers New Listings Government 386

Housing Wire

APRIL 23, 2023

Still, we have some promising signs that we might have finally hit the inventory bottom for 2023. We didn’t see too much volatility in mortgage rates last week, but purchase apps declined in reaction to rates rising two weeks ago. Mortgage rates started the week off at 6.61% and ended at 6.66%, so a calm week on the rate front.

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Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 543

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 20, 2023

Another week down in 2023 and we’re seeing crazier action in the housing market as purchase application data fell, mortgage rates rose again, and weekly inventory took another dive with a noticeable move lower in new listing data. Mortgage rates hit 6.80%, marking the high point for 2023 so far.

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Inventory Housing Market Mortgage Marketing 375

Housing Wire

APRIL 16, 2023

The seasonal housing inventory bottom evaded us again last week as active listings fell and new listing inventory decreased. Purchase application data rose again, with more positive than negative data in 2023. Mortgage rates didn’t move too much last week but ended the week on a higher note at 6.50%.

Inventory 522

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 522