2023, Housing Market, Mortgage and New Listings

Housing inventory defied all predictions in 2023

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 30, 2023

Going into 2023, people thought housing inventory would skyrocket, home prices would crash, and we would see the housing market of 2008 all over again. We created this weekly tracker at the end of 2022 to give people a live weekly outlook on everything that drives the housing market and which factors to follow.

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The 2023 housing market is at odds with itself

Housing Wire

MAY 4, 2023

On the one hand, elevated mortgage rates continue to erode buyers’ purchasing power, and in some markets, home prices are falling. All major housing market metrics point to a restrained housing market. What can we expect in 2023? This article is part of our ongoing 2023 Housing Market Forecast series.

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Are mortgage rates about to fall?

Housing Wire

MAY 11, 2024

Mortgage rates and the bond market have fallen a bit recently and the spreads between the 10-year yield and 30-year mortgage rate have improved over last year’s levels. In the past two years, demand has always picked up whenever mortgage rates have moved lower with some duration.

Mortgage

Did lower mortgage rates slow housing inventory growth?

Housing Wire

MAY 4, 2024

My model for inventory growth with higher mortgage rates came crashing down last week. After two weeks of significant increases , inventory growth slowed dramatically and is far from my 11,000-17,000 growth model with mortgage rates over 7.25%. I wish new listings were growing faster, but I will call it a victory nonetheless.

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The 2023 Housing Market: A Look Ahead

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 28, 2022

This article is part of our 2022-23 Housing Market Forecast series. After the series wraps, join us on February 6 for the HW+ Virtual 2023 Forecast Event. Heading into 2023, it seems well within reason, given current trends, that a peak-to-trough decline in home prices of 10% is possible. . months nationally.

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New listings take a hit, possibly due to higher mortgage rates

Housing Wire

AUGUST 27, 2023

Did the recent move in higher mortgage rates impact the new listings data more than normal? I hope this isn’t the case, but we had a noticeable move lower in new listings last week. The Fed spoke at Jackson Hole last Friday but that didn’t move mortgage rates much. Weekly active listings rose by only 6,618.

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Housing Market Tracker: Inventory shocks lower

Housing Wire

JULY 9, 2023

The slow zombie crawl of housing inventory went lower last week as inventory was negative week to week. In addition, mortgage rates rose to a yearly high as labor data stayed firm and purchase apps had their first negative week after three straight weeks of positive growth. bond market doesn’t see a job-loss recession happening soon.

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Housing Market Tracker: Inventory finally rises

Housing Wire

APRIL 23, 2023

Can we now say that the housing market ‘s spring selling season is finally underway? Since 2020, the seasonal bottom for housing inventory has arrived several months later than normal, making it more complicated to track housing inventory data. Again, I am a bit mindful here due to Easter.

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Housing Market Tracker: Mortgage rates and inventory fall together

Housing Wire

MARCH 26, 2023

The financial and housing markets are still trying to sort out the banking crisis and whether we have seen the last Fed rate hike in this cycle. These events led to lower mortgage rates and increased purchase application data last week, but decreased housing inventory. In a regular market, they would be closer to 5.25%.

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Is the spring housing market ready for the Fed’s déjà vu?

Housing Wire

MARCH 16, 2024

The 10-year yield is at the same critical point as last year before the Fed went hawkish and sent mortgage rates to 8% and the 10-year yield to 5%. A serious 10-year yield and mortgage rate talk My work on housing moves around the 10-year yield and the economics that move that. Could this happen again?

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Housing Market Tracker: Inventory falls even lower

Housing Wire

APRIL 16, 2023

The seasonal housing inventory bottom evaded us again last week as active listings fell and new listing inventory decreased. Purchase application data rose again, with more positive than negative data in 2023. Mortgage rates didn’t move too much last week but ended the week on a higher note at 6.50%.

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Mortgage rates helped by the Fed’s moderate stance

Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2024

Mortgage rates had a chance to break to new highs this year, but the Federal Reserve took a moderate tone at the last Fed meeting. We saw the benefit of lower mortgage rates with the last two existing home sales reports, which showed growth. Then mortgage rates rose, facilitating five weeks of negative purchase application data.

Mortgage

Housing Market Tracker: A wild week for rates

Housing Wire

MAY 21, 2023

It was a wild ride for the housing market last week! The 10-year yield rose noticeably, sending mortgage rates near 7% right in the heart of the spring selling season. New listings data fell, however, active inventory grew. Mortgage rates rose last week as we started the week at 6.55% but ended at 6.90%.

Housing Market

Housing Market Tracker: Inventory drops by 11,000

Housing Wire

MARCH 6, 2023

The housing market faced some serious obstacles last week as the 10-year yield broke over 4%, mortgage rates rose to over 7%, purchase apps fell again and we are still trying to find the elusive seasonal bottom for housing inventory. million in 2023. 1 song of the year.

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Housing Market Tracker: Spring inventory falls

Housing Wire

MAY 7, 2023

Just when I thought it was safe to say we were getting more traditional spring housing inventory , we hit a snag last week, as active inventory and new listings declined. We had a lot of drama over the week between Federal Reserve meetings and banking stress, and mortgage rates and purchase applications both fell.

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Housing Market Tracker: Spring inventory grows

Housing Wire

APRIL 30, 2023

The spring housing market music is playing, and purchase application data and active listing inventory rose together last week. The other focus should be where mortgage rates go; only a little happened last week. The fear of not having an increase in inventory this spring should be put to rest.

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Why is housing inventory growing with higher mortgage rates?

Housing Wire

MARCH 2, 2024

The mortgage rate lockdown premise says that if rates rise, inventory can’t grow meaningfully. The idea is that nobody will trade their low mortgage rates to buy another home — even though this happened every week last year. With mortgage rates higher, will this stop inventory from growing year over year?

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The mortgage rate lock-in didn’t start in 2022

Housing Wire

MAY 15, 2024

This is an excerpt of a HousingWire Research report titled: What Everyone Needs to Know about Mortgage Rate Lock-in, by Altos President Mike Simonsen. housing market saw dramatic changes in affordability as mortgage rates skyrocketed 500 basis points. million in January 2021 (when mortgage rates were 2.7%) fell to 3.9

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Housing Market Tracker: Purchase apps jump 25%

Housing Wire

JANUARY 23, 2023

Here’s the housing market rundown for the last week: Purchase application data had a solid week-to-week gain of 25%. Housing inventory decreased by 566 units, which is not a significant decline. Mortgage rates fell, but the bond market didn’t break what I see as a critical level, so for now, stabilization is more important.

Housing Market

Are mortgage rates about to break out higher again?

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 17, 2024

Will mortgage rates break toward 8% again, making another 2024 data line that looks like a carbon copy of 2023? It’s not part of my 2024 forecast, but since the Federal Reserve likes playing with fire , let’s look at where we are with mortgage rates and their impact on weekly housing data.

Mortgage

Housing Market Tracker: Inventory is negative YOY

Housing Wire

JULY 2, 2023

To give you an idea how different this year is from last year, last week in 2022, active listings grew 30,940 while this year they only grew 5,848. Mortgage rates rose last week after the better-than-anticipated jobless claims data but even with higher rates, we also had a third week of positive purchase application data.

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Midwest housing markets good for first-time homebuyers: Zillow

Housing Wire

APRIL 5, 2024

The number of first-time homebuyers made up 32% of all buyers in 2023, according to a report released by the National Association of Realtors. Against that backdrop, Zillow identified prime markets for first-time homebuyers , and half of them were nestled in the Midwest.

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Housing Market Tracker: Inventory disappoints again

Housing Wire

JUNE 11, 2023

After seeing disappointing inventory growth two weeks ago , which I chalked up to the Memorial Day holiday, I was hoping for a big push in active listings last week, but that didn’t happen. And, the recent uptick in mortgage rates to almost 7% slowed purchase application data again. First, it took the longest time in U.S.

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What happened to the summer housing market?

Housing Wire

JULY 30, 2023

Tracking housing inventory this summer is like watching a zombie slowly walking on the beach. Last week inventory growth dropped and new listing data declined again. Strong labor data pushed up mortgage rates and purchase applications fell week to week. Instead, new listings data had a small decline last week.

Housing Market

Housing Market Tracker: Mortgage rates spike as inventory falls

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 20, 2023

Another week down in 2023 and we’re seeing crazier action in the housing market as purchase application data fell, mortgage rates rose again, and weekly inventory took another dive with a noticeable move lower in new listing data. Mortgage rates hit 6.80%, marking the high point for 2023 so far.

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Will mortgage rates keep heading lower?

Housing Wire

MARCH 9, 2024

We survived jobs week and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell talking to Congress, with mortgage rates ending the week below 7%. But will mortgage rates keep heading lower? Mortgage rates and the 10-year yield The 10-year yield is the key for all my housing work, so I focus on it religiously.

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Housing Market Tracker: Still no spring inventory lift

Housing Wire

APRIL 3, 2023

Last week was relatively calm for the housing market after the fiasco of the banking crisis. Housing demand grew and inventory levels fell again while mortgage rates rose. Mortgage rates rose to 6.57%. Active inventory fell by 3,141, and new listing data fell again and is still trending at all-time lows.

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Housing Market Tracker: Mortgage rates fall after SVB failure

Housing Wire

MARCH 12, 2023

Last week was wild, and not just for the housing market. Mortgage rates fell even though the jobs report was stronger than anticipated. They reversed their bearish take on bonds, and people started to buy the 10-year yield, causing mortgage rates to fall. Last week, the year-over-year data was only down a smidge.

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Housing Market Tracker: A notable drop in inventory

Housing Wire

JANUARY 9, 2023

The housing market saw inventory fall 4% last week from the week before. Does that mean we are heading back to all-time lows in inventory again for 2023? So, is this the traditional seasonal decline we see during every December/January, or have falling mortgage rates (since mid November) contributed to this?

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Housing Market Tracker: Inventory gets summer lift

Housing Wire

JUNE 25, 2023

The spring housing inventory was like a zombie rising from the grave, very slow, but the summer is showing some promise and let’s hope it continues. Mortgage rates were again in a small range, hanging near 7%. In addition, new listing data turned negative year over year after the second half of 2022.

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Housing Market Tracker: Higher rates crush purchase apps

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 27, 2023

We created the weekly Housing Market Tracker because housing data has been so wild since 2020. The housing market madness persisted last week as inventory fell and higher mortgage rates took a bigger bite out of purchase application data. How does the sharp increase in rates directly impact those homebuyers?

Housing Market

Housing Market Tracker: Rates finally head lower

Housing Wire

JULY 16, 2023

We finally got a break on mortgage rates last week as the 10-year yield hit a critical level and quickly reversed lower, sending mortgage rates down. Active listings showed growth, week to week, but much smaller than I would like to see. It also took the longest time ever in 2023 to find the seasonal bottom.

Housing Market

The awesome power of high mortgage rates

Housing Wire

MARCH 6, 2024

Housing professionals already know that high mortgage rates are bad for business. But with mortgage rates ascending past 7% according to HousingWire’s Mortgage Rates Center , those hopes have so far been dashed in 2024. Bad for sellers Prospective home sellers may not notice incremental changes in mortgage rates.

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How will mortgage rates impact seasonal inventory in 2024?

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 4, 2024

How will mortgage rates impact seasonal inventory in 2024? Also, when mortgage rates rise, the inventory peak happens later in the year. Weekly housing inventory data One substantial positive story for 2024 is that we have more housing inventory year over year. Is the seasonal bottom going to happen later than I want?

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Housing Market Tracker: Inventory and purchase applications data fall together

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 6, 2023

Despite mortgage rates briefly falling below the 6% threshold, both housing inventory and mortgage demand fell last week. Let’s dive into the trend lines of the housing market. The show-me part of the housing market starts with this bounce from an extreme bottom. Weekly inventory change (Jan.

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Housing Market Tracker: Weekly inventory adds 1,339 homes

Housing Wire

JANUARY 16, 2023

Mortgage rates fell along with bond yields, showing that mortgage rates peaked on Oct. The weekly data shows some good news for the housing market ! With mortgage rates also falling, I am hopeful that more people will list their homes and buy another, so we can get back to a more functional housing market.

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Housing Market Tracker: A good week for inventory

Housing Wire

JULY 23, 2023

Mortgage rates rose again and purchase apps saw a mild decline week to week. However, last year was very abnormal: We had the biggest one-year sales crash ever, working from the lowest active listings data in March 2022. As I have stressed all year: for 2023, it’s all about jobless claims.

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Have lower mortgage rates already boosted housing demand?

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 18, 2023

Did the recent move lower in mortgage rates turn the housing market positive? With mortgage rates moving almost 75 basis points lower from the highs, does the data show that demand has improved? I talked about how much lower mortgage rates can go from here in this recent podcast.

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Mortgage rates, inventory and demand rise as price cuts fall

Housing Wire

JANUARY 20, 2024

Housing inventory, new listing data and mortgage rates are all rising, but the price cut data percentages are falling. However, at the current trend, we will break below the lows in the price cut percentage data that we saw in 2023 in the spring of this year. So far, so good in 2024.

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What will lower mortgage rates do to spring housing inventory?

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 25, 2023

Lower mortgage rates tend to take housing supply off the market and demand has been picking up lately as rates have fallen. However, the recent drop in housing inventory has more to do with seasonality factors than lower mortgage rates. Housing inventory fell this week, which is 100% related to seasonality.

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Why home prices haven’t crashed even with high mortgage rates

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 9, 2023

The most underreported housing story I’ve seen this year is that even with mortgage rates rising to 8%, the number of homes that took price cuts before they sold was 4% below 2022 levels. This happened even with higher home prices and higher mortgage rates in 2023. Now lets take a look at the weekly inventory data.

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Housing Market Tracker: Banking crisis is a new variable

Housing Wire

MARCH 19, 2023

The housing market was crazy again last week. Mortgage rates fell as the banking crisis got worse and purchase application data grew for the second week in a row, but the big question is: Did we hit the seasonal bottom in housing inventory? Weekly inventory increased by 1,734. The economic data was OK last week.

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