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Is housing inventory growth really slowing down?

Housing Wire

One of the most important housing market stories in recent weeks has been the decline in new listings , which has slowed the growth rate of total inventory. One thing that I have stressed is that higher mortgage rates can create a slowdown in demand and thus allow more inventory to accumulate through a weakness in demand.

Inventory 522
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Are we seeing a mortgage rate lockdown?

Housing Wire

The premise of a mortgage rate lockdown is simple: so many American households have such low mortgage rates that some will never move once rates rise, which then locks up housing inventory. Typically we have a natural set of new listings each year; inventory rises in the spring and summer and then falls in the fall and winter.

Mortgage 520
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Why purchase application data is below 2008 levels

Housing Wire

But I need to explain why this level has more in common with 2014 housing data than the credit stress markets of 2005-2008, and why you should care. Inventory levels broke to all-time lows and thus created massive housing inflation quickly, which broke my model. We saw this happen in 2013-2014 and 2018-2019.

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Can lower mortgage rates stop the housing recession?

Housing Wire

To say that mortgage rates have been on a wild Mr. Toad’s ride in 2022 is an understatement. People thought the mortgage rate drama in 2013-2014 was a lot when rates went from 3.5% People thought the mortgage rate drama in 2013-2014 was a lot when rates went from 3.5% We saw this in 2013-2014 and 2018-2019.

Mortgage 504
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Existing home sales are still savagely unhealthy

Housing Wire

But, there is one bright spot — inventory is rising. This has been a concern of mine after the summer of 2020 as inventory levels were breaking all-time lows, facilitating unhealthy home price growth during a more prominent demographic patch in U.S. The one positive: Inventory is rising. Once total inventory levels reach 1.52-1.93

Inventory 512
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Typical homebuyers made $107,000 annually, used a real estate agent in 2023: NAR survey

Housing Wire

Buying a house was obtainable only for the haves in 2023 as home prices and mortgage rates soared. Homebuyers’ median household income increased by $19,000 this year from 2022, reaching $107,000, according to the National Association of Realtors ’ 2023 Profile of Homebuyers and Sellers. Meanwhile, in September, one-third of U.S.

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The housing market is now savagely unhealthy

Housing Wire

Inventory has broken to all-time lows, but it doesn’t look like the year-over-year data will be positive at all this year unless demand softens up. You can see why I have been on team higher mortgage rates for some time now because we don’t have any other way to get off this madness. NAR Research : Unsold inventory sits at a 1.7-month