Housing Wire

MARCH 17, 2022

Census Bureau released their construction report for February, showing a positive trend in housing construction data with a lovely print in housing permits at 1,859,000 and housing starts at 1,769,000. So far, housing construction has done well during 2020-2022 considering the economic drama. Today, the U.S.

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Construction Housing Market Inventory Buyers 450

Housing Wire

APRIL 25, 2023

You know, the one that says we have too much inventory and millions of vacant homes in the U.S.? According to this theory, we have more homes under construction than any time in history. The truth is, it’s not 2008 all over again. I understand the lure of the housing 2008 story. When the supply is 6.5

Inventory 470

Inventory Housing Market Construction Marketing 470

Housing Wire

APRIL 18, 2023

What is the best news for mortgage rates long-term? More supply of apartments coming on line will be good news for mortgage rates going forward. As you can see in the chart below, this looks nothing like the housing peak in 2005 and the crash toward 2008. This is key for mortgage rates looking out for years to come.

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Mortgage Construction Supply Chain Housing Market 500

Housing Wire

JANUARY 27, 2023

On the other hand, mortgage rates have gone down more than 1% since Oct. The builders’ stock prices have done well as mortgage rates have fallen , and this illustrates the simplicity of the homebuilders’ position: their story is really about mortgage rates and moving products. 291,000 homes are still under construction: 5.7

Mortgage 540

Mortgage Construction Buyers Inventory 540

Housing Wire

JULY 26, 2022

This data line confirms what we all know to be the case: The housing market, at least as it relates to construction, is in a recession. We talked about this in March , and even last year, when I wrote about the problem with the housing construction boom premise. “I don’t expect a boom in housing construction.

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Construction Housing Market Inventory Marketing 498

Housing Wire

JUNE 2, 2022

I always try to focus people on the total inventory data until we get inventory back into a range of 1.52-1.93 HousingWire: To add to that, since housing is in an inventory shortage, the market has changed, so the good news is inventory is growing. The big difference now than, let’s say, what we saw from 2002-2008.

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Training Inventory Housing Market Real Estate Agent 405

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 24, 2023

9 up until the early part of February as mortgage rates fell from 7.37% to 5.99%. To combat higher mortgage rates, builders have been cutting prices and buying down rates to move product. Homebuilders’ for-sale inventory and months’ supply The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of January was 439,000.

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Inventory Construction Housing Market Mortgage 441

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 16, 2023

There is one simple reason for this: it’s not 2008. The truth is that if mortgage rates fell below 5.875% and kept going lower, everyone’s housing predictions would need to be revised this year because the builders can sell their homes with lower mortgage rates. Let me explain my logic with today’s housing starts report.

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Construction Housing Market Inventory Mortgage 488

Housing Wire

JUNE 7, 2021

During the previous economic expansion from 2008 to 2019, the housing market was subject to the constant refrain of build more homes. The previous economic expansion from 2008 to 2019 was the weakest housing recovery ever. Because that period followed a housing boom and bust when inventory was overbuilt. Here is why.

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Housing Market Marketing Inventory Construction 545

Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2022

We finally got mortgage rates to rise, and for people like me who have been concerned about how unhealthy the housing market was last year — and it got a lot worse this year — it’s a blessing that was much needed. million line in the sand has been this: Home prices grow above that 23% level: check Mortgage rates spike higher: check.

Mortgage 457

Mortgage Inventory Housing Market Construction 457

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 27, 2023

One of the urban myths spouted by people needing more experience tracking housing data was that millions of homes would hit the marketplace in 2023 because the builders had so many homes under construction. Even in the worst housing bubble crash of our lifetime in 2008, the number of new homes for sale was under 200,000.

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Construction Buyers Mortgage Inventory 435

Housing Wire

JANUARY 1, 2024

The 2023 housing market faced one of the same roadblocks we saw in 2022: mortgage rates were too high for home sales growth. Here’s my forecast for 2024: 10-year yield and mortgage rates For 2024, the 10-year yield range will be similar to 2023, but with a few different variables to watch. Instead, they closed 2023 at 6.67%.

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Housing Market Marketing New Listings Construction 525

Empire Appraisal Group

MARCH 9, 2023

5 Reasons This Isn’t a Repeat of the 2008 Housing Crash Source: 5 Reasons This Isn’t a Repeat of the 2008 Housing Crash (nar.realtor) By: Melissa Dittmann Tracey NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun draws the distinctions between today’s real estate market and that of more than a decade ago. Underbuilding and inventory shortages.

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Real Estate Inventory Housing Market Construction 78

Empire Appraisal Group

JANUARY 26, 2023

5 Reasons This Isn’t a Repeat of the 2008 Housing Crash NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun draws the distinctions between today’s real estate market and that of more than a decade ago. Though layoffs in the technology and mortgage industries are occurring, they haven’t accumulated enough to form a net job loss, Yun noted. Today, it’s 4.6

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Real Estate Realtors Inventory Housing Market 78

Housing Wire

JUNE 27, 2023

The builders have managed their backlog nicely to ensure this data line doesn’t explode higher on them like we saw in 2008. NAR total active listings data going back to 1982 : This explains why the builders and new homes are doing better than the existing home sales market, which deals with higher mortgage rates and low active listings.

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Construction Inventory Marketing Buyers 491

Housing Wire

JUNE 24, 2022

As you can see below, new home sales are still below the 2000 recession level, and we just had a significant spike in mortgage rates too. These monthly reports can be very wild, and I anticipate big swings in the reports until things calm down with mortgage rates. Census: For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply The seasonally?adjusted

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Inventory Construction Marketing Mortgage 447

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 7, 2020

The reasons for that are solid demographics and low mortgage rates , which will not change much in 2021. months, builders will halt the rate of growth for new construction plans as they did in 2018 and again for a brief period this year. For now, though, the low inventory means housing starts have legs to move higher.

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Inventory Construction Government Housing Market 545

Housing Wire

JULY 13, 2022

Looking at the housing market in the years 2020-2024, one risk i identified early on was that home prices could accelerate more in this period than we saw in the previous expansion if inventory channels broke to all-time lows. Back then, we had higher sales, higher inventory, and less price growth, but we had a massive credit bubble.

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Inventory Housing Market Mortgage Marketing 539

Housing Wire

MARCH 26, 2024

In addition, any reprieve in the housing inventory shortage created by more multifamily units hitting the market is expected to be short-lived. In recent congressional testimony , Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) chief economist Mike Fratantoni pointed out that the housing market is now extremely supply challenged. “And

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Investors Marketing Inventory Real Estate 438

Housing Wire

APRIL 14, 2023

The National Association of Realtors Research Group has produced the index since 2008, a time of turbulence in the real estate market. Since October of 2022, the share of buyers who are purchasing their home without a mortgage has been more than one quarter of the market. Then, the mortgage interest rates were in the low-4% range.

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Realtors Buyers Inventory Sellers 416

Housing Wire

JANUARY 5, 2023

The 2022 housing market was savagely unhealthy , with all-time lows in inventory leading to massive bidding wars and price spikes until the Fed put a screeching halt to all of it with rate hikes that resulted in the most significant one-year spike in mortgage rate history. Mortgage rates. Home price s.

Housing Market 537

Housing Market Marketing Inventory New Listings 537

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 21, 2023

The mortgage industry started 2023 with optimism due to an increase in housing activity. Fannie Mae expects home sales to remain subdued for the remainder of 2023, although recent mortgage application data came in stronger than expected. million units for the year – a level similar to the annual pace that occurred in 2008-2011 period.

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Inventory Mortgage Housing Market Contracts 377

Housing Wire

JANUARY 19, 2024

It happened in 2008 and then didn’t happen again until 2023. We don’t have any data that shows sales are crashing from this low level: this is key when looking at the future because it does give us a place to grow sales as long as mortgage rates fall. Remember, with median sales prices and inventory, it’s very seasonal.

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Housing Market Inventory Contracts Marketing 424

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 16, 2021

We’ve had the sharpest and yet also the shortest recession in history, record-low mortgage rates leading to record origination volumes, and record home prices as housing demand far outstripped supply. How will the Federal Reserve respond to economic developments in 2022, and what will be the impact on mortgage rates?

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Marketing Mortgage Supply Chain Inventory 449

DW Slater Company

FEBRUARY 23, 2023

The past six months have been full of very drastic changes as the rapid mortgage rate increases causing many markets to begin to decline. Some may have a bit of PTSD from the 2008 Housing crash but just know that this is a different market with different factors impacting it. The biggest answer is inventory.

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Inventory Marketing Supply Chain Appraisal 128

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 23, 2020

We don’t need to be concerned about the moderation in the new home sales data because inventory is still low. ” I’m sure you’ve heard the thesis that low inventory suppresses sales. Home sales have gotten to pre-cycle highs with the inventory at pre-cycle lows. Builder confidence is primarily based on inventory.

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Inventory Construction Housing Market Design 525

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 25, 2020

I have been consistent in my stance that during the years 2008 to 2019, we had the weakest housing recovery ever. Only then would we see enough demand from the new home sales market to warrant that much construction. Higher levels of Inventory in the range of 4.4 If inventory breaks over 6.5 Anything below 4.3

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Housing Market Inventory Construction Marketing 536

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 28, 2022

We had a period this summer when mortgage rates moved from 6.25% back down to 5% and some of the new home sales activity picked up. However, it does show that the builders are in a much better spot to deal with their massive supply, compared to the 2005-2008 period. Of course, mortgage rates are much higher right now.

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Construction Sellers Inventory Housing Market 466

Housing Wire

JANUARY 6, 2022

In November 2021, the supply of homes for sale nationwide as a percentage of occupied residential inventory remained near historic lows at 1.19% — meaning only 119 in every 10,000 homes were for sale — much lower than the historical average of 2.5%. The majority of the supply of homes for sale come from existing homes, not new construction.

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Supply Chain Housing Market Construction Inventory 493

Housing Wire

JUNE 10, 2022

His recent article, “Purchase apps are at 2009 level: where’s the inventory?” takes a deep dive into what the heck is going on with purchase applications, housing demand and inventory levels. This article, for example, asks why, if purchase applications are down to 2009 levels, are inventory levels still so freaking low?

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Sellers Housing Market Inventory Buyers 381

Housing Wire

APRIL 8, 2021

As we enter the second quarter of 2021, it’s time for the mortgage industry to reflect on the past 12 months and think about how to plan for the same period ahead. Low mortgage rates, driven by quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve helped fuel a boom in both mortgage refinancing and purchases, making 2020 the second-best year in U.S.

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Development Lending Mortgage Marketing 414

Housing Wire

JANUARY 26, 2021

Record low inventory and strong buyer demand once again pushed up the cost of homes in the U.S., “With buyer demand continuing to outpace the previous year’s levels amid historically lowest inventory of for-sale homes, the pressure on home prices is going to fuel home price growth in the first half of 2021,” Happ said. .

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Inventory Housing Market Buyers Sellers 544

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 20, 2022

After record sales in 2021, demand for new construction waned throughout 2022 as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates cutting into home buyer’s purchase power and making financing new development projects even more costly for builders. BH: What are you expecting to see in terms of demand for new construction heading into 2023?

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Supply Chain Construction Inventory Finance 368

Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2022

Though February’s new sales were below recent highs, builders are still selling homes at a higher seasonally adjusted rate than they did at any point between 2008 and 2019,” Zillow economist data analyst Dan Handy said in a statement. This suggests some slowing of demand, which should soften further if mortgage rates continue to rise.

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Supply Chain Housing Market Buyers Construction 367

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 24, 2021

months and above, the builders will pull back on construction. For housing, I have stayed true to my bond yield mortgage rate call of the summer of 2020. For housing to slow, it needs mortgage rates above 3.75% and the 10-year yield to break 1.94%, which wasn’t part of my 2021 forecast. When supply is 4.4 When supply is 6.5

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Construction Marketing Housing Market Mortgage 472

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 20, 2022

November continued to see a slip in home construction activity, despite inflation cooling off and mortgage rates falling,” Nicole Bachaud, Zillow’s economist, said in a statement. November’s annual housing start rate was down 16.4%

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Housing Market Construction Inventory Design 362

McKissock

AUGUST 14, 2022

The housing market has cooled since the intensity of the post-pandemic real estate rush, but the seller’s market we experienced has left us with plenty of discussion about what the nation’s housing inventory looks like. Housing Inventory So Low? In 2008, many people lost their homes when the housing bubble burst. Why Is U.S.

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Inventory Construction Real Estate Renovations 68