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Comparing this housing market recession to 2008

Housing Wire

There are similarities and significant differences between the housing recession we’ve seen this year versus 2008, and looking at specific factors in both timeframes gives us an idea of what to expect in 2023. Let’s look at the recessionary factors we see now versus 2008. First, we must define what we mean by recession.

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Why purchase application data is below 2008 levels

Housing Wire

Purchase application data is now below 2008 levels! But I need to explain why this level has more in common with 2014 housing data than the credit stress markets of 2005-2008, and why you should care. Post-2012, whenever mortgage rates rise, existing home sales always trend below 5 million. That happened in March of this year.

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Home prices will drop to 2008-levels in these four cities: Goldman Sachs

Housing Wire

This, in turn, will lead to risks of higher delinquencies for mortgages originated last year or late 2021, according to the company. The expected declines in these markets are not far from what occurred during the 2008 housing crash, when home prices in the U.S. Mortgage rates will also stay higher for longer than investors expected.

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How housing credit is shaping housing inventory

Housing Wire

After 2010, qualified mortgage laws were in place, meaning everyone getting a mortgage has to be able to repay the loan. You can see the drastic change this made in the Mortgage Bankers Association Credit Availability index , below, which skyrocketed in 2005 and 2006 before an epic collapse in 2008.

Inventory 435
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Opinion: Riding the wave

Housing Wire

Thanks to high mortgage rates , mortgage refinance rates, and even higher home prices , the vibe among homebuyers has been fairly bleak these past couple months. Serious buyers showed discernment as they know inventory is growing. Serious buyers showed discernment as they know inventory is growing. With only 1.3

Inventory 326
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Job growth will fuel the housing demand in the long term: NAR’s Lawrence Yun

Housing Wire

After two straight years of double-digit declines, home sales will pick up in 2024 thanks to lower mortgage rates. Once the December data for existing home sales is tallied up, 2023 could be the worst year for existing home sales seen since 2008 or since 1995, Yun said during his presentation. Yun expects home sales to rise next year.

Sellers 459
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Are we seeing a mortgage rate lockdown?

Housing Wire

The premise of a mortgage rate lockdown is simple: so many American households have such low mortgage rates that some will never move once rates rise, which then locks up housing inventory. It all started when mortgage rates jumped from 5.25% to 6.25% this year and I saw how home sellers reacted to that move.

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