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Comparing this housing market recession to 2008

Housing Wire

Part of the issue is that mortgage rates moved up so fast that many sellers quit this year as well. Key thing to remember: A traditional seller is also usually a buyer. When mortgage rates spiked up as much as they did this year, it wasn’t financially appealing to some sellers to purchase their homes at rates of 6.25%-7.37%.

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Experts share insights about the Fed, data ‘vibes’ and housing trends

Housing Wire

From there — and when combined with employment in construction and housing permit data — the thinking around rates will become clearer. “If In 2007, right around the time he started Altos Research, he was attending a conference where representatives of both companies were speaking. He began by looking at fresh inventory data.

Inventory 473
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The homebuilders got lucky this time

Housing Wire

However, the glaring difference today versus the recession of 2008, is that in 2007 the builders had to deal with over 4 million active listings as competition for their pricey new homes. In an odd twist of fate, the delays due to COVID-19 are currently an infrastructure and jobs program for Americans in the construction industry.

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New home sales defy recession calls

Housing Wire

They’re effective sellers and don’t want to create a backlog of completed units for sale because that would ruin their business model. In 2007, we had more than 4 million total active listings, which was too much supply for the builders to compete effectively. When supply is 4.4-6.4 When supply is 6.5

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Only 70,000 new homes available for sale

Housing Wire

This is different from the 2007 housing market when the builders’ sales were still collapsing and monthly supply spiked with rising cancellation rates. months and above, the builders will pull back on construction. The Inventory for homes under construction is 263,000 = 4.6 When supply is 4.4-6.4 When supply is 6.5

Inventory 520
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Despite Fed talk, only 72K new homes are for sale

Housing Wire

During the housing bubble crash years, active listings grew to more than 4 million in 2007 because most of the inventory in the U.S. NAR active listings data (see chart below): 2007: 4 million active listings 2023: 1.08 months of the supply are homes that are still under construction, about 260,000 homes 1.7 months to 7.4

Inventory 369
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Homebuilders still need lower mortgage rates

Housing Wire

This makes them much more efficient sellers than existing homeowners, who need to find another house once they sell. 291,000 homes are still under construction: 5.7 The builders actually lucked out here because back in 2007, we had over 4 million active listings of existing home, which are usually cheaper than comparable new homes.

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