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How housing credit is shaping housing inventory

Housing Wire

After 2010, qualified mortgage laws were in place, meaning everyone getting a mortgage has to be able to repay the loan. You can see the drastic change this made in the Mortgage Bankers Association Credit Availability index , below, which skyrocketed in 2005 and 2006 before an epic collapse in 2008.

Inventory 502
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Why purchase application data is below 2008 levels

Housing Wire

But I need to explain why this level has more in common with 2014 housing data than the credit stress markets of 2005-2008, and why you should care. In the summer of 2020, I talked about how the housing market would change, but it needed the 10-year yield to break over 1.94%, which roughly means 4% plus mortgage rates.

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Lower mortgage rates are stabilizing the housing market

Housing Wire

Since the weaker CPI data was released in November, bond yields and mortgage rates have been heading lower. The question then was: What would lower mortgage rates do to this data? However, mortgage rates have fallen more than 1% since the recent highs, so it’s time to look at the data to explain how to interpret it.

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Housing Market Tracker: Mortgage rates fall after SVB failure

Housing Wire

Mortgage rates fell even though the jobs report was stronger than anticipated. They reversed their bearish take on bonds, and people started to buy the 10-year yield, causing mortgage rates to fall. As a result, mortgage rates, which climbed as high as 7.05% last week, fell to a low of 6.76% on Friday. million in 2023.

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Why home-price growth is still up 18% year over year

Housing Wire

However, we haven’t had a credit sales boom like the one we saw from 2002-2005. Total Inventory had been growing from 2001-2005; total listings data in 2005 was at the higher historical range of 2.5 million listings. Today, we stand at 1,310,000 active listings. New listings are declining now.

Inventory 382
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Have we found the bottom in existing home sales?

Housing Wire

“The principal factor was the rapid increase in mortgage rates, which hurt housing affordability and reduced incentives for homeowners to list their homes. This means what we saw in 2005-2008 with the inventory spike was a historic event that hasn’t been replicated at any time in recent U.S. economic history. .

Inventory 525
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Housing Market Tracker: Spring inventory grows

Housing Wire

The spring housing market music is playing, and purchase application data and active listing inventory rose together last week. The other focus should be where mortgage rates go; only a little happened last week. In 2007, when sales were down big, total active listings peaked at over 4 million.

Inventory 516