Housing Wire

JANUARY 20, 2023

On Friday NAR reported that total housing inventory levels broke under 1 million in December, dropping to 970,00 units for a population of 330 million people. million in January down to about 4 million in December, We now have total inventory levels near all-time lows again. The days on market were too low.

Inventory 539

Inventory Housing Market New Listings Marketing 539

Housing Wire

MARCH 18, 2022

While demand is solid, the savagely unhealthy aspect of housing is continuing. Inventory has broken to all-time lows, but it doesn’t look like the year-over-year data will be positive at all this year unless demand softens up. NAR Research : Unsold inventory sits at a 1.7-month NAR Research : Unsold inventory sits at a 1.7-month

Housing Market 541

Housing Market Marketing Inventory Sellers 541

Housing Wire

APRIL 20, 2023

months’ worth of housing inventory in the U.S. We have a workable range for 2023 sales in the existing home sales market between 4 million and 4.6 As we can see in the data below, the days on the market fell back down to 29 days. NAR: Total housing inventory registered at the end of March was 980,000 units, up 1.0%

Inventory 523

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 523

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 7, 2022

As you can see from the chart above, the last several years have not had the FOMO (fear of missing out) housing credit boom we saw from 2002-2005. What I mean by a credit bust is that after the housing bubble burst in 2005 into 2006, we saw a massive increase in supply. Total inventory levels.

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Housing Market Mortgage Marketing Inventory 543

Housing Wire

MAY 26, 2022

It’s an excellent time to discuss housing inventory. The housing market shifted in March of this year. As the 10-year yield broke above 1.94% and mortgage rates rose, we saw the impact on housing data. Yes, crazy to think, but this is a survey trend data line, and the housing market was in free-fall at that time.

Inventory 503

Inventory Housing Market Construction Marketing 503

Housing Wire

JUNE 28, 2022

This data line lags the current housing market as it’s a few months old. Since 2014, we’ve not seen the credit housing boom that we saw from 2002-2005. million total housing inventory data as that is the level of inventory that would change my thesis that this is a savagely unhealthy market.

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Housing Market Marketing Inventory Investors 449

Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2023

If there’s one sector of the economy that benefits from the very low levels of total housing inventory , it’s the homebuilders , but for a reason you might not think. If national housing inventory were back to normal, we would have 2 to 2.5 Rates did spike from 5.99% to 7.10% recently , impacting the data coming up.

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Inventory Housing Market Construction Marketing 538

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 18, 2022

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported today on two trends in existing home sales that we have seen for many months now: sales are declining while total inventory data has fallen directly for the three straight months. The Federal Reserve wanted to see the bidding wars end and the days on the market grow.

Inventory 463

Inventory Marketing Housing Market New Listings 463

Housing Wire

MAY 19, 2022

million , with double-digit home-price growth driving a housing market that is still savagely unhealthy. This is something that I said would change the tone of housing, and we are seeing that result this year as sales decline and inventory picks up. Inventory is always seasonal. Today inventory levels are at 1.02

Housing Market 518

Housing Market Marketing Inventory Realtors 518

Housing Wire

APRIL 20, 2022

However, the real story of 2022 is that the savagely unhealthy housing market continues as inventory is still lower than last year, sending home prices growth into double digits again. housing market; the 10-year is above 1.94%, something that didn’t happen in 2020 or 2021. Unsold inventory sits at a 2.0-month

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Housing Market Marketing Inventory Mortgage 481

Housing Wire

APRIL 15, 2022

We’ve all been wondering what 5% plus mortgage rates would do to the hot housing market, and now we’ve got that and a bag of chips. As a result, I’ve been rooting for mortgage rates to rise to create a balancing impact on this housing market. Inventory is still showing negative year-over-year data.

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Housing Market Marketing Mortgage Inventory 493

Housing Wire

APRIL 8, 2022

Home prices are skyrocketing, housing inventory is at all-time lows and homebuyers have to contend with multiple bids. In time, markets always find balance and balance is a good thing. But, that doesn’t mean housing is going to crash. Inventory velocity. April 10, 2020: We needed a lot of inventory, fast.

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Housing Market Marketing Inventory Lending 392

Housing Wire

MARCH 28, 2022

The one thing that has happened in 2022 that has been worse is that national inventory levels have worsened in 2022 to start the year. Due to this reality, I have downgraded the housing market from unhealthy housing to a savagely unhealthy housing market. Inventory has been falling for years.

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Housing Market Marketing Supply Chain Inventory 325

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 21, 2022

On Wednesday, existing home sales collapsed near the lows we saw during COVID-19 and back in 2007 when the housing bubble burst. In addition, this is the fourth straight month of inventory declining, while days on the market are growingl! Plus, available housing inventory remains near historic lows.”

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Inventory New Listings Housing Market Sellers 515

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 20, 2022

Traditionally, housing starts, permits, and completions would move together, like what we saw in 2002-2005. The housing recession story is separate from the housing completion story and inventory backlog. From 2002-2005 it was a steady rise to the top of the housing bubble, and then it burst.

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Housing Market Marketing Construction Supply Chain 403

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 9, 2022

But I need to explain why this level has more in common with 2014 housing data than the credit stress markets of 2005-2008, and why you should care. Understanding this data line and what it is trying to tell you will be more valuable than erroneously thinking the market is crashing and we’ll see a wave of foreclosures.

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New Listings Inventory Housing Market Sellers 477

Housing Wire

MARCH 21, 2023

Because housing data and all economics are so violent lately, we created the weekly Housing Market Tracker , which is designed to look forward, not backward. This is the wild housing action I have talked about for some time and why the Housing Market Tracker becomes helpful in understanding this data.

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Mortgage Housing Market Inventory Law 486

Housing Wire

AUGUST 30, 2022

While the growth rate is cooling monthly, we are still in a savagely unhhealthy housing market trying to get national inventory levels back to pre-COVID-19 levels. I have documented the history of these housing price crash addicts for a decade now. Housing inventory issue with no booming demand.

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Inventory New Listings Law Housing Market 382

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 16, 2020

According to multiple real estate agents and mortgage brokers, low interest rates and a high percentage of “essential” jobs in their town has kept the housing market and local economy strong. The city’s housing dynamics point to strong buyer demand, which fueled a 16.8% Combined with interest rates that began around 2.5%

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Housing Market Real Estate Agent Marketing Real Estate 412

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 13, 2023

“In a still-competitive housing market, more well-off home buyers were able to have their bids accepted by offering larger down payments and even by paying cash.” The share of first-time buyers rose to 32%, up from last year’s low of 26%. Typical repeat buyers were 58, down from 59 in 2022.

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Real Estate Agent Real Estate Agents Sellers 365

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 11, 2022

There’s a showdown at the housing market corral between homebuyers and sellers. When I came up with the “ savagely unhealthy housing market ” label in February of this year, it was based on the premise that the housing inflation story that we have had to deal with since 2020 was a historical event.

Sellers 498

Sellers Inventory Housing Market New Listings 498

Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2022

We finally got mortgage rates to rise, and for people like me who have been concerned about how unhealthy the housing market was last year — and it got a lot worse this year — it’s a blessing that was much needed. This sector on an apples-to-apples basis is more expensive than the existing home sales market. percent (±11.9

Mortgage 455

Mortgage Inventory Housing Market Construction 455

Housing Wire

APRIL 25, 2023

You know, the one that says we have too much inventory and millions of vacant homes in the U.S.? I understand the lure of the housing 2008 story. In their haste, they miss the bigger picture of the housing market. It’s very sexy to talk gloom and doom about the housing market, but sometimes that doesn’t end well.

Inventory 469

Inventory Housing Market Construction Marketing 469

Housing Wire

JUNE 8, 2022

I am going to do my best to try to make sense of what is happening with the housing market right now, since the years 2020-2024 have been a talking point of mine for years and my biggest concern since the fall of 2020 has been prices overheating — not having a deflationary collapse. . A short history of the housing crash narrative.

Inventory 545

Inventory Housing Market Marketing Mortgage 545

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 15, 2024

years in 2005, according to a Redfin analysis of median U.S. housing market for multiple reasons, Redfin said. Homeowner tenure is projected to remain flat, but a larger share of homeowners remaining in place is also contributing to an inventory shortage, according to the report. years last year, up from 6.5

Property Taxes 452

Property Taxes Insurance Construction Inventory 452

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 8, 2022

Since many people think of housing as a wealth creator — and we want more Americans to have more wealth — then the government needs to make sure demand stays high enough for that wealth product to grow. This can lead to home prices getting out of control , especially when total inventory gets to all-time lows.

Inventory 543

Inventory Law Housing Market Design 543

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 24, 2023

They don’t ever have to have the conversation about how low their total payment is in the new home they’re buying, unlike some of their buyers (which explains higher cancellation rates). They still have a lot of work to do here, so we shouldn’t expect anything good to come from the housing permits side of the economy in 2023.

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Inventory Construction Housing Market Mortgage 438

Housing Wire

AUGUST 23, 2022

The housing market is in a recession, something that the homebuilders and the National Association of Realtors now agree with me on, as this recent CNBC clip shows. Over the years, I have tried to emphasize that the housing market in the U.S. can’t have a credit sales boom like we saw from 2002-2005. This is 12.6

Construction 370

Construction Housing Market Sellers Marketing 370

Housing Wire

JULY 1, 2021

Although low and stable mortgage rates have kept the housing market booming over recent months, a deterioration in affordability and for-sale inventory has led to a market slowdown.”. For some economists, rising rates are the better option for counterbalancing the market.

Mortgage 493

Mortgage Housing Market Realtors Inventory 493

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 28, 2020

No, this is not a new home sales housing bubble as we are far from total new home sales being where they were in 2005. However, for the first time in more than a decade we have the demand needed to prompt builders to really push housing starts as the monthly supply data has collapsed this year. It is legit.

Inventory 511

Inventory Buyers Mortgage Housing Market 511

Housing Wire

MAY 9, 2022

housing market follow Canada? In short, the answer is no, we won’t have the type of home-price velocity that Canada has experienced because our housing market is more diverse than theirs. housing market is more tied to mortgage buyers. from 2002-to 2005, which led to forced credit selling.

Buyers 527

Buyers Housing Market Mortgage Marketing 527

Housing Wire

APRIL 1, 2021

“This is confirmation that while purchase demand remains strong, the marginal buyer is feeling the affordability squeeze resulting from the increases in mortgage rates and home prices we’ve experienced in recent months.”. The housing market is in desperate need of more inventory to cool price growth and preserve affordability.

Mortgage 414

Mortgage Inventory Housing Market Marketing 414

Housing Wire

JUNE 27, 2023

NAR total active listings data going back to 1982 : This explains why the builders and new homes are doing better than the existing home sales market, which deals with higher mortgage rates and low active listings. Some people prefer something other than the current active existing inventory. Now on to the report.

Construction 490

Construction Inventory Marketing Buyers 490

Housing Wire

JANUARY 20, 2022

I have never been a housing sales boom person because I don’t believe we can have a credit boom in America like we saw from 2002 to 2005. As we are getting closer and closer to the spring selling season, we are at fresh new all-time lows in inventory and mortgage rates, and the unemployment rate is below 4% still.

Inventory 460

Inventory Housing Market Marketing Mortgage 460

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 16, 2023

Looking at the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo homebuilder confidence data and builder stock prices, I can say the homebuilders got very lucky this time around in the middle of a housing recession. They have less competition as they are working from low sales levels in today’s housing market.

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Construction Housing Market Inventory Mortgage 486

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 22, 2021

Then everyone went crazy on investors and iBuyers , suggesting that these people were holding up the entire housing market. I understand that grifters have to keep the grift going, but not even the Joker would say that the housing market lives off investors and not mortgage buyers.

Inventory 471

Inventory Housing Market Investors Marketing 471

Housing Wire

AUGUST 16, 2022

Of course, housing starts today aren’t collapsing in the way they did from the peak of 2005 because we haven’t had a sales credit boom in recent years as we did from 2002-2005, which inflated new home sales toward 1.4 Currently, we are in a much different housing recession than what we had from 2005-2011.

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Mortgage Construction Inventory Buyers 529