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Spring housing market gets more inventory

Housing Wire

Active weekly housing inventory growth slowed slightly last week, but it’s still running at a healthier clip than in 2023. I have a simple model with mortgage rates being above 7.25%: weekly inventory data should grow between 11,000-17,000 per week. When mortgage rates increase, demand falls and the price-cut percentage grows.

Inventory 511
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Opinion: The end of seller speculation in US housing market

Housing Wire

A few months ago, the United States housing market failed Econ 101. metropolitan areas in February 2022, based on year-over-year growth in median listing price according to the residential real estate listing website, Realtor.com. The table also reports the year-over-year percent change in new listings for each market.

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Lower mortgage rates are stabilizing the housing market

Housing Wire

Since the weaker CPI data was released in November, bond yields and mortgage rates have been heading lower. The question then was: What would lower mortgage rates do to this data? Now, with five weeks of data in front of us, we can say they have stabilized the market. Mortgage rates went from a low of 2.5%

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Housing Market Tracker: Inventory falls even lower

Housing Wire

The seasonal housing inventory bottom evaded us again last week as active listings fell and new listing inventory decreased. Mortgage rates didn’t move much last week, but the 10-year yield rose even though inflation data was tamer than expected, and we had a weaker retail sales report number.

Inventory 532
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The 2023 housing market is at odds with itself

Housing Wire

On the one hand, elevated mortgage rates continue to erode buyers’ purchasing power, and in some markets, home prices are falling. All major housing market metrics point to a restrained housing market. At the same time, there are some key trends I think will characterize the housing market in 2023.

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Mortgage rates helped by the Fed’s moderate stance

Housing Wire

Mortgage rates had a chance to break to new highs this year, but the Federal Reserve took a moderate tone at the last Fed meeting. We saw the benefit of lower mortgage rates with the last two existing home sales reports, which showed growth. Then mortgage rates rose, facilitating five weeks of negative purchase application data.

Mortgage 519
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Why is housing inventory growing with higher mortgage rates?

Housing Wire

The mortgage rate lockdown premise says that if rates rise, inventory can’t grow meaningfully. The idea is that nobody will trade their low mortgage rates to buy another home — even though this happened every week last year. With mortgage rates higher, will this stop inventory from growing year over year?

Inventory 535