Housing Wire

APRIL 7, 2023

Since 2022 — as the labor market has been getting hotter with massive job gains and high job openings — the year-over-year wage growth data has been falling. Since 2022 — as the labor market has been getting hotter with massive job gains and high job openings — the year-over-year wage growth data has been falling. percent, the U.S.

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Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 4, 2024

Weekly housing inventory data One substantial positive story for 2024 is that we have more housing inventory year over year. I am a very pro-housing supply person and will feel much better about the housing market when we return to pre-COVID-19 levels for total active listings. But at least it’s positive!

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Housing Wire

MARCH 16, 2022

On Wednesday the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates 0.25%, which has forced me to raise my second recession red flag on this historic economic recovery and expansion. The first Fed rate hike isn’t going to take us into a recession, it just raises the second of the six flags we would need to go into a recession.

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 20, 2023

Did today’s existing home sales report give us a playbook for housing in 2024? I would argue yes, and the housing market today looks a lot like what we saw in late 2022. Year-over-year, sales fell 7.3% (down from 4.12 Year-over-year, sales fell 7.3% (down from 4.12 So let’s take a look at the playbook.

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 4, 2023

This article is part of our 2022 – 2023 Housing Market Forecast series. Bringing together some of the top economists and researchers in housing, the event will provide an in-depth look at the top predictions for this year, along with a roundtable discussion on how these insights apply to your business.

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Housing Wire

APRIL 13, 2022

Logan Mohtashami: Supply has gotten worse and worse this year, every single week in 2022 on a year-over-year basis. Logan Mohtashami: Supply has gotten worse and worse this year, every single week in 2022 on a year-over-year basis. on a year-over-year basis, and we are in April! This Q&A was originally hosted on April 6th.

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 25, 2023

This article is part of our 2022 – 2023 Housing Market Update series. After the series wraps, join us on February 6 for the HW+ Virtual 2023 Housing Market Update. Long-term mortgage rates responded by rising from 3.25% in early 2022 to over 7.25% in October 2022, more than doubling. They eased below 6.5% The overall U.S.

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Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 11, 2023

Late last year, Laurie Goodman, the famed MBS expert and a leader at the Urban Institute in Washington, penned an article in Barrons to explain why rates were so high. “In 2009-2010, the combined portfolios were over $1.5 “In 2009-2010, the combined portfolios were over $1.5

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Housing Wire

MARCH 12, 2024

Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.2 The year-over-year core inflation data have been slowing down on all the inflation reports; CPI, PPI, and PCE have slowed from the COVID-19 peak. The global pandemic created supply shortages, an extra boost in demand for goods over services, and a massive burst in inflation.

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Housing Wire

APRIL 3, 2023

Last week was relatively calm for the housing market after the fiasco of the banking crisis. Housing demand grew and inventory levels fell again while mortgage rates rose. In this article I talked about how to look at housing credit getting tighter during the next recession. Mortgage rates rose to 6.57%.

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Housing Wire

JULY 26, 2022

This data line confirms what we all know to be the case: The housing market, at least as it relates to construction, is in a recession. Since the summer of 2020, I have genuinely believed the housing market could change once the 10-year yield broke over 1.94%. “I don’t expect a boom in housing construction.

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 6, 2023

However, the bigger story here is there is a pathway for a soft landing for America, and the Fed should be ashamed of itself for believing that a job loss recession is the best way to kill inflation. It wasn’t that long ago (in October) that people were talking about 8%-10% mortgage rates and a big recession for the United States of America.

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 23, 2022

From Census: New Home Sales Sales of new single-family houses in October 2022 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 632,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. We are well below the 2000 recession level and back to 1996 levels.

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Housing Wire

JUNE 7, 2022

HW Media’s audience is very interested in understanding the macroeconomic factors affecting housing. Top-performing articles over the last month include: 5 predictions for the second half of the 2022 housing market , by Selma Hepp, deputy chief economist at CoreLogic.

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Housing Wire

APRIL 12, 2023

While we have made progress in cooling down the inflation data, which is running into tough year-over-year comps (and will for the rest of the year) don’t expect the Fed to pivot anytime soon. As I am writing this article, it’s trading at 3.42%. This is why they still don’t care that housing is in a recession.

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Housing Wire

MARCH 16, 2023

How is today’s housing starts data , which beat expectations, good for mortgage rates ? As you can see, the 1974 recession destroyed the 5-unit construction production. Like most recessions, when demand falls, so does production. Like most recessions, when demand falls, so does production. That isn’t happening right now.

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Mortgage Construction Marketing Contracts 491

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 5, 2022

I have been part of the mortgage banking industry since 1983 — 39 years to date through different housing markets. In fact, it was the skills I developed selling loans that helped develop my ability to influence policy leaders and others in industry during my time as Federal Housing Commissioner and as CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association.

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 8, 2021

My biggest concern for housing in the years 2020-2024 was that if the demographic push in demand picks up and total home sales get over 6. 2 million , we could be at risk of housing inventory falling to such low levels that I would have to categorize this housing market as unhealthy. 2020 and 2021 easily each have over 6.2

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Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 21, 2022

Before the pandemic, the historical average of annualized house price growth was approximately 4%. Yet, pandemic-era dynamics exacerbated an already large housing demand and supply imbalance, fueling record-breaking annual house price growth, peaking at nearly 21%. The tailwinds. percentage points, more than any other age group.

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Housing Wire

JUNE 27, 2023

New home sales are up 20% year over year, and existing home sales are down 20% year over year; this is something we don’t see very often. They have no emotional ties to houses and don’t need to sell a home to buy another one. Existing homes are cheaper and have a geographical advantage because they’re all over the map.

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Construction Inventory Marketing Buyers 480

Housing Wire

MARCH 26, 2023

The financial and housing markets are still trying to sort out the banking crisis and whether we have seen the last Fed rate hike in this cycle. These events led to lower mortgage rates and increased purchase application data last week, but decreased housing inventory. In a regular market, they would be closer to 5.25%.

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Housing Wire

MAY 9, 2022

Over the weekend, I tweeted several charts, showing people the big divergence between home price growth and real disposable income in the two countries. Over the weekend, I tweeted several charts, showing people the big divergence between home price growth and real disposable income in the two countries. housing market follow Canada?

Buyers 525

Buyers Housing Market Mortgage Marketing 525

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 18, 2022

I cheer because the savagely unhealthy housing market theme I talked about back in February of this year was the same premise of the housing reset talking point the Federal Reserve uses. We needed to end this madness before we had prices escalate over 20% for another year.

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Inventory Marketing Housing Market New Listings 459

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 28, 2020

From this stronghold I have been able to see past the chaos and view the economy and the future of the housing market through the lens of my core economic principles. entered into a period of the best demographics for housing ever recorded. In an article published on Dec. In an article published on Dec. In 2020, the U.S.

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Housing Market Marketing Law Mortgage 545

Housing Wire

APRIL 25, 2023

This article is part of our ongoing 2023 Housing Market Forecast series. After this series wraps, join us on May 30 for the next Housing Market Update Event. It has also increased the likelihood of a modest recession later this year. Although rates have ebbed from over 7% earlier this year to below 6.5%

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Inventory Housing Market Marketing Mortgage 344

Housing Wire

MAY 4, 2022

This article is part of our housing market economic update series. At the end of this series, you can join us on May 10 for a Housing Market Update webinar. Annual house price growth hit a record high in 2021, over 17%, and growth remains in the double digits thus far in 2022.

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Housing Wire

APRIL 8, 2022

Home prices are skyrocketing, housing inventory is at all-time lows and homebuyers have to contend with multiple bids. But, that doesn’t mean housing is going to crash. However, a cool-down in prices is not the same thing as a housing crash. Can this last? No, it can’t. Obviously, my home-price growth model got smashed!

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 9, 2022

But I need to explain why this level has more in common with 2014 housing data than the credit stress markets of 2005-2008, and why you should care. However, the housing market did run into one problem in 2020. Inventory levels broke to all-time lows and thus created massive housing inflation quickly, which broke my model.

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New Listings Inventory Housing Market Sellers 467

Housing Wire

MARCH 10, 2023

What a week this has been for the housing market , from the fireworks of Fed Chair Jay Powell’s Congressional testimony to an attempt to break over a critical line on the 10-year yield. I expect some emergency Fed meetings over the weekend to see if other banks are at risk. Let’s look at each of these, one at a time.

Mortgage 369

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Housing Wire

JULY 2, 2023

Housing inventory finally broke under 2022 levels last week. Since May 15, that trend has continued to the point that inventory in America is now negative year over year. We have often discussed that the housing market dynamics changed starting Nov. We have often discussed that the housing market dynamics changed starting Nov.

Inventory 447

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 447

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 27, 2021

This article is part of our HousingWire 2022 forecast series. Bringing together some of the top economists and researchers in housing, the event will provide an in-depth look at the predictions for next year, along with a roundtable discussion on how these insights apply to your business.

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 10, 2021

With over 20 years of mortgage experience, Mettle has dedicated his career to the mortgage industry. Below, Mettle answers questions about the housing industry: HousingWire: To start off, what is your current favorite HW+ article? HousingWire: What do you think will be the big themes for the housing market in 2022?

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 28, 2022

This article is part of our 2022-23 Housing Market Forecast series. Bringing together some of the top economists and researchers in housing, the event will provide an in-depth look at the top predictions for this year, along with a roundtable discussion on how these insights apply to your business. months nationally.

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Housing Market Marketing Inventory Mortgage 482

Housing Wire

MARCH 31, 2022

Are we headed to a housing bubble? The Dallas Fed on Thursday published an article titled: Real-Time Market Monitoring Finds Signs Of a Brewing U.S. Housing Bubble. The online reaction was immediate — housing must be about to crash. For the housing bubble 2.0 I disagree with this conclusion. Let me explain.

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Housing Market Inventory Lending Marketing 517

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 4, 2022

There has been a flurry of recent articles prognosticating a decrease to Federal Housing Administration (FHA) insurance premiums. One news article suggested a possible presidential announcement of FHA premium reductions prior to the November elections. But in the current environment there is reason to be cautious.

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Housing Wire

AUGUST 4, 2023

Mortgage rates are finally headed lower after a crazy week of jobs data showing that the economy isn’t going into recession. With headline consumer price index inflation running at 3% year over year, people are seeing real wage growth again, as we have been steady at 4.4% What do I mean by a make-up demand in labor? percent, the U.S.

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Housing Wire

APRIL 17, 2023

Local housing markets is a HousingWire magazine feature spotlighting housing trends across the country. Austin, Texas In 2021, Austin had one of the hottest housing markets in the country. Closings are still down year over year, but in January they were down just 21% compared to 36% in October.”

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