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Opinion: The end of seller speculation in US housing market

Housing Wire

metropolitan areas in February 2022, based on year-over-year growth in median listing price according to the residential real estate listing website, Realtor.com. The table also reports the year-over-year percent change in new listings for each market. Table 1, below, reports the 10 hottest U.S. Bellingham, WA 51.7% -8.3%

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Lower mortgage rates are stabilizing the housing market

Housing Wire

What I mean by a credit bust is that after the housing bubble burst in 2005 into 2006, we saw a massive increase in supply. These were forced credit sellers, which means these sellers don’t sell to buy a home like a traditional seller does. Total inventory levels. NAR: Total Inventory levels 1.22

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Have we found the bottom in existing home sales?

Housing Wire

.” One of the housing economic realities that I have been trying to stress this year is that a traditional seller of a home is typically a buyer as well. This explains why total active listing inventory data has been stable over the decades, with the exception of 2006-2011, when those forced distressed credit home sellers couldn’t buy.

Inventory 528
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Housing inventory falls under 1M again as sales collapse

Housing Wire

The one period where this didn’t happen was from 2006-2011, when credit forced Americans to sell, to rent or to be homeless. During that period, we saw new listing data decline. Outside of that time period, everything else from 1982 to 2023 was normal.

Inventory 541
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Why home-price growth is still up 18% year over year

Housing Wire

I don’t need to see total active listing get back to the historical range of 2-2.5 New listings are declining now. One of the issues with existing home inventory has been that, for the most part, a traditional seller is usually a buyer of a home. This is not encouraging news at all, in my view. From Redfin.

Inventory 384
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The standoff between homebuyers and sellers

Housing Wire

There’s a showdown at the housing market corral between homebuyers and sellers. The only time this happened was 2006-2011 — the housing bust years. Home prices ebb and flow, pricing was working in the sense that sellers met homebuyers to a degree. Image by Brandon Johnson/HW Media.). Now fast forward to 2022.

Sellers 504
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Logan Mohtashami’s 2023 housing market forecast

Housing Wire

However, weeks after that call, the new listing data started to decline noticeably, which makes that call much harder to happen in 2023. However, I acknowledge that the housing dynamics have changed a lot since that forecast in June as new listing data declined. million in 2023. million for 2023. Housing recession.