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Opinion: The end of seller speculation in US housing market

Housing Wire

A few months ago, the United States housing market failed Econ 101. metropolitan areas in February 2022, based on year-over-year growth in median listing price according to the residential real estate listing website, Realtor.com. The table also reports the year-over-year percent change in new listings for each market.

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How housing credit is shaping housing inventory

Housing Wire

You can see the drastic change this made in the Mortgage Bankers Association Credit Availability index , below, which skyrocketed in 2005 and 2006 before an epic collapse in 2008. Since most sellers are buyers, inventory should be stable if demand is stable. So you can see why we have so few stressed sellers.

Inventory 443
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Lower mortgage rates are stabilizing the housing market

Housing Wire

Now, with five weeks of data in front of us, we can say they have stabilized the market. What I mean by a credit bust is that after the housing bubble burst in 2005 into 2006, we saw a massive increase in supply. These were forced credit sellers, which means these sellers don’t sell to buy a home like a traditional seller does.

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Have we found the bottom in existing home sales?

Housing Wire

In addition, this is the fourth straight month of inventory declining, while days on the market are growingl! From NAR : “In essence, the residential real estate market was frozen in November, resembling the sales activity seen during the COVID-19 economic lockdowns in 2020,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.

Inventory 519
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Housing inventory falls under 1M again as sales collapse

Housing Wire

housing market , we just experienced an event that most people never thought could happen. The one period where this didn’t happen was from 2006-2011, when credit forced Americans to sell, to rent or to be homeless. During that period, we saw new listing data decline. The days on market were too low.

Inventory 540
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Why home-price growth is still up 18% year over year

Housing Wire

While the growth rate is cooling monthly, we are still in a savagely unhhealthy housing market trying to get national inventory levels back to pre-COVID-19 levels. From the index : I know it seems strange, but existing home sales are falling, and the monthly supply of new homes is at 10.9 New listings are declining now.

Inventory 382
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The standoff between homebuyers and sellers

Housing Wire

There’s a showdown at the housing market corral between homebuyers and sellers. When I came up with the “ savagely unhealthy housing market ” label in February of this year, it was based on the premise that the housing inflation story that we have had to deal with since 2020 was a historical event.

Sellers 498