Housing Wire

JULY 19, 2022

The June housing starts data beat estimates with positive revisions, however, this doesn’t change the housing market recession call that I made last month. The smart thing to do is go with the builder sentiment trend until it reverses, and most likely, we will need to see lower mortgage rates for that to happen.

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Housing Wire

MARCH 17, 2022

Census Bureau released their construction report for February, showing a positive trend in housing construction data with a lovely print in housing permits at 1,859,000 and housing starts at 1,769,000. Of course, that’s until you look at the housing completion data, which hasn’t gone anywhere in years.

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Housing Wire

JULY 26, 2022

This data line confirms what we all know to be the case: The housing market, at least as it relates to construction, is in a recession. Since the summer of 2020, I have genuinely believed the housing market could change once the 10-year yield broke over 1.94%. In response, they stalled construction for 30 months.

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 20, 2022

This is the reason construction workers still have jobs, and that backlog needs to be finished; this is a positive outcome. The bigger story here is that if we want to see mortgage rates fall, we need more rental units, and right now we have a massive backlog of 2-unit homes under construction — over 900,000. percent (±12.3

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Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 22, 2020

housing market and compare those to where we are today — in the middle of one of the most epic years in our country’s history, due to COVID-19. No doubt about it, the COVID crisis has taken some juice out of the 2020 housing market. The February housing data, pre-COVID, was juicy indeed. higher than a year ago.

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Housing Wire

MAY 26, 2022

It’s an excellent time to discuss housing inventory. The housing market shifted in March of this year. As the 10-year yield broke above 1.94% and mortgage rates rose, we saw the impact on housing data. Yes, crazy to think, but this is a survey trend data line, and the housing market was in free-fall at that time.

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Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2023

However, with active listings now near all-time lows, the builders’ new homes still have more value in the housing market than what we saw in previous decades. They can cut prices, pay down mortgage rates for their buyers, and do what they need to to make it work for them to move their products. When supply is 4.3

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Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 24, 2022

From the National Association of Home Builders : For many years I have stressed that the most important housing data I follow is the monthly supply of new homes. It gives an idea of what to expect for housing construction. adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of January was 406,000. When supply is 4.4

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Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 26, 2023

New home sales missed estimates today but had three months of positive revisions, which continues the story of the builders managing the higher mortgage rate environment. However, higher mortgage rates make it harder and harder to pull some of those deals off. months, the builders will pause construction. When supply is over 6.5

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Housing Wire

AUGUST 16, 2022

Tuesday’s housing starts report clearly shows that homebuilders are going to be done with single-family construction until mortgage rates fall. If it wasn’t for solid rental demand boosting multifamily construction this year — 18% year to date —this data line would have looked much worse.

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Housing Wire

MAY 18, 2022

Census Bureau released their new residential construction report for April, showing a miss on the estimate and a negative revisions data line, which I believe is lagging behind the current market reality. Housing starts came in at 1.724 million , and housing permits came in at 1.819 million — both are still very healthy numbers.

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Housing Wire

MAY 24, 2022

A few months ago, I wrote that the new home sales sector is at risk because of rising mortgage rates. A lot of the housing data was lagging the rate move, so it wasn’t apparent that higher rates impacted the data yet. As you can see, sales levels were never elevated like what we saw from 2002-2005. Slow and steady wins the race.

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 23, 2022

One of the realities of COVID-19 has been the lag to build homes in a business that requires stable mortgage rates because of the traditional time to complete a home. It didn’t help the builders that they had a global pandemic and we still have many new homes either in construction or that haven’t been started yet. percent (±22.7

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Housing Wire

JULY 13, 2022

Looking at the housing market in the years 2020-2024, one risk i identified early on was that home prices could accelerate more in this period than we saw in the previous expansion if inventory channels broke to all-time lows. housing market as savagely unhealthy. million homes, using the NAR data.

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 20, 2021

Even in the extreme conditions of COVID-19, my general premise on housing economics predicted that the two variables with the most influence — demographics and mortgage rates — would hold up the housing market. The 10-year yield and mortgage rates. The forecast. Current conditions don’t support this. The backstory.

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Housing Wire

JUNE 24, 2022

As you can see below, new home sales are still below the 2000 recession level, and we just had a significant spike in mortgage rates too. These monthly reports can be very wild, and I anticipate big swings in the reports until things calm down with mortgage rates. adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of May was 444,000.

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 26, 2022

In reality, as we talked about many times on HousingWire, housing data was going to moderate, find a base and work from that COVID-19 surge in the data. However, with that said, it’s still just an OK housing market for me based on how I view the new home sales market. months, this is an OK market for the builders.

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Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 21, 2022

Housing construction in the U.S. during the brief COVID-19 recession, to that recovery, and now in the new housing recession, is going to go down in history as one of those crazy data lines we lived through. million housing completions in the monthly report. months and below, this is an excellent market for the builders.

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Housing Wire

AUGUST 23, 2022

Tuesday’s new home sales report missed expectations and had negative revisions, which isn’t surprising given this sector of our economy simply can’t handle higher mortgage rates. family houses in July 2022 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 511,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S.

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Housing Wire

APRIL 27, 2022

That data shows how housing was still on pace to have another solid year before mortgage rates got over 5%. The most recent housing starts data on permits and starts side of the equation was fine this month, but it also lagged the current rates environment. months, this is just an OK market for the builders.

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 17, 2022

For this reason, the number of housing units “under construction” is the largest ever recorded in history because they were taking so long to finish. For the builders, they have a new problem: they had homes under contract and then mortgage rates jumped in the biggest fashion ever recorded in history.

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 19, 2022

You always want to be skeptical of any housing starts data that comes in too strong or too negative from the trend, and we had some specific factors in this report that boosted multifamily construction. Some of the demand that we saw from 2002-2005 was facilitated by credit that no longer exists in the marketplace today.

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Housing Wire

JUNE 16, 2022

Housing starts came in at 1.549 million and housing permits came in at 1.695 million. Housing completion data did grow to 1.465 million and more of the backlogged homes are finished. While this data line isn’t crashing, the ability to grow from these levels is limited with rising mortgage rates. percent (±13.6

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Appraisal Today

NOVEMBER 4, 2022

NOTE: Please scroll down to read the other topics in this long blog post on AMCs, non-lender appraisals, liability, ROVs,unusual homes, mortgage origination stats, etc. ==. Mortgage Lending You decide. Mortgage Borrowers Can Challenge Inaccurate Appraisals Through the Reconsideration of Value Process. Type of report.

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Will Springer Realtor

OCTOBER 11, 2022

At what point will mortgage interest rates peak? Seriously though, there must be a ceiling to rising rates that have all but extinguished a robust housing market. While investors of mortgaged securities help dictate their interest rates, the Federal Reserve is behind the scenes influencing the overall lending environment.

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Appraisal Today

AUGUST 13, 2023

NOTE: Please scroll down to read the other topics in this long blog post on non lender appraisals, liability, markets with few sales, Bias, unusual homes, mortgage origination A California Winery With a 91-Acre Vineyard for $12,995,000 Red Soles Winery, a 91-acre vineyard. How does your market compare with Ryan’s?

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Will Springer Realtor

DECEMBER 8, 2021

housing starts, when builders break ground and lay a foundation, are forecast to finish this year at 1.04M single-family homes, the first time since 2007 the figure will exceed a million. Economists forecast housing starts will rise a promising 5% in 2022. construction jobs in the U.S., year-on-year (YoY), according to U.S. “In

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