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How home-price growth has damaged the housing market

Housing Wire

Since 2014, we’ve not seen the credit housing boom that we saw from 2002-2005. The housing market can’t replicate the type of massive credit expansion we saw from 2002-2005, so the price-growth story has more to do with inventory collapsing to all-time lows. Also, certain investors felt no fear post-2020.

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Mark Willis steps back into CEO role at Keller Williams

Housing Wire

In 2002, he joined the firm’s executive team, serving as president, before a nine-year stint as CEO from 2005 to 2014. ” Since 1991, Willis has served in various leadership roles within the company, including regional director, operating principal, team leader, and as a market center and region investor. That’s Mark Willis.”

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The housing market is now savagely unhealthy

Housing Wire

However, a seller is also a natural homebuyer, unless they’re an investor. As you can see from this NAR report, cash buyers as a percent of sales is slightly lower now than levels in 2016. However, distressed sales are down a lot today compared to back then, and sales to investors are 19% today compared to 16% back then.

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Think US home prices are high? At least we aren’t Canada

Housing Wire

housing market is more tied to mortgage buyers. Unlike those two cities in Canada, we aren’t as reliant on foreign buyers to such a great extent. Just last month, Canada’s prime minister proposed a two-year ban on some foreign investors buying Canadian real estate to try to tame price growth. In addition, the U.S.

Buyers 530
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Housing inventory falls under 1M again as sales collapse

Housing Wire

From NAR : “December was another difficult month for buyers, who continue to face limited inventory and high mortgage rates ,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. This means we don’t have enough housing inventory available because with lending standards back to normal we can’t replicate the credit demand we saw in housing from 2002-2005.

Inventory 541
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Is the savagely unhealthy housing market back?

Housing Wire

We don’t have a massive credit boom as purchase application data is at historical lows; we haven’t had the same run-up in credit as we saw from 2002-2005. This is why I always draw the black line on the chart below — to show people that we haven’t had a credit boom for many years.

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Existing home sales data shows extent of housing inflation

Housing Wire

A traditional primary resident seller is also a buyer, which means if they don’t list, they’re not just taking a potential home to be bought off the table — they’re taking a future sale off the books as well. However, it’s not the market of 2002-2011. From NAR Research : “Total existing-home sales notched a minor contraction of 0.4%

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