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Logan Mohtashami unpacks the slow train wreck that’s been happening in housing inventory

Housing Wire

I always try to focus people on the total inventory data until we get inventory back into a range of 1.52-1.93 HousingWire: To add to that, since housing is in an inventory shortage, the market has changed, so the good news is inventory is growing. Months are homes under construction 0.8 Then this happened.

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Can first-time homebuyers afford homes today?

Housing Wire

While spring of 2022 saw a similar share of all-cash homebuyers, one needs to look back to 2014 before seeing similar shares. Homebuyers placed competitive offers on homes while inventory grew increasingly difficult to find. At that time, housing inventory dropped to historic lows making the environment ripe for investors.

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How is housing demand holding up? Logan Mohtashami answers

Housing Wire

Some historical references: The last two times rates rose, this is what we saw — 2013/2014 negative — 20% year over year trend 2018 purchase application data was flat to slightly positive all year long; we only had three mild negative years over year prints when rates headed to 5%. This data line is trend survey data.

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Home prices surge to six-year high in November

Housing Wire

Record low inventory and strong buyer demand once again pushed up the cost of homes in the U.S., November’s numbers mark the greatest annual growth rate since February 2014 and even blew past the 8.4% as prices in November rose 9.5% nationally over the same time last year, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index.

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Can lower mortgage rates stop the housing recession?

Housing Wire

People thought the mortgage rate drama in 2013-2014 was a lot when rates went from 3.5% We saw this in 2013-2014 and 2018-2019. The builders would love rates to get back to these levels so they can be sure to sell some of the homes they’re finishing up on the construction side. NAR total inventory data.

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Beware of gloom and doom housing market crash headlines

Housing Wire

The last time we had a consistent downtrend in existing home sales was back in 2013-2014. During that same period, the MBA purchase application data were down 20% year over year on-trend in 2014. months, builders pull back, and new construction stalls. This level of inventory means new home sales are doing ok, not great.

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Purchase apps are at 2009 level: where’s the inventory?

Housing Wire

It’s an excellent time to discuss housing inventory. How can housing inventory be so low today when it skyrocketed back in 2009? If you follow the trend of housing supply since 2014, it’s been falling every year — with a pause in 2018-2019 — and then collapsed lower post-2020. I don’t believe housing inventory below 1.52

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