2013 Inventory Mortgage New Listings 
Housing Wire
MAY 8, 2024
Housing credit channels directly impact housing inventory channels. Home prices escalated out of control after 2020 and when we look at why that happened, we can see that housing credit mattered more to inventory data than most people realize. This matters because inventory was already heading toward all-time lows before COVID-19.
Housing Wire
APRIL 23, 2023
Since 2020, the seasonal bottom for housing inventory has arrived several months later than normal, making it more complicated to track housing inventory data. Still, we have some promising signs that we might have finally hit the inventory bottom for 2023.
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Housing Wire
DECEMBER 7, 2022
Since the weaker CPI data was released in November, bond yields and mortgage rates have been heading lower. The question then was: What would lower mortgage rates do to this data? However, mortgage rates have fallen more than 1% since the recent highs, so it’s time to look at the data to explain how to interpret it.
Housing Wire
JUNE 9, 2023
In 2022 it was all about finding a point in time when I thought mortgage rates would fall, which was key to understanding how the purchase application data would react to lower mortgage rates. We have had plenty of times in the previous decade when mortgage rates fell and demand improved, but that was with a lot lower mortgage rates.
Housing Wire
AUGUST 3, 2022
To say that mortgage rates have been on a wild Mr. Toad’s ride in 2022 is an understatement. People thought the mortgage rate drama in 2013-2014 was a lot when rates went from 3.5% People thought the mortgage rate drama in 2013-2014 was a lot when rates went from 3.5% We saw this in 2013-2014 and 2018-2019.
Housing Wire
NOVEMBER 9, 2022
Inventory levels broke to all-time lows and thus created massive housing inflation quickly, which broke my model. In the summer of 2020, I talked about how the housing market would change, but it needed the 10-year yield to break over 1.94%, which roughly means 4% plus mortgage rates. We saw this happen in 2013-2014 and 2018-2019.
Housing Wire
JANUARY 5, 2023
The 2022 housing market was savagely unhealthy , with all-time lows in inventory leading to massive bidding wars and price spikes until the Fed put a screeching halt to all of it with rate hikes that resulted in the most significant one-year spike in mortgage rate history. From 2013 to 2022 I forecasted price growth every year.
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