Housing Wire

APRIL 11, 2022

Given the current housing inventory crisis, it might surprise people to realize this: we built too many homes during the housing bubble years. Yes, but this is where my work is much different from other housing economists and why we need to think of inventory in a new, modern 21st-century mindset. Wait, what?

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Inventory Housing Market Marketing Modernization 496

Housing Wire

MARCH 29, 2022

Given the current housing inventory crisis, it might surprise people to realize this: we built too many homes during the housing bubble years. Yes, but this is where my work is much different from other housing economists and why we need to think of inventory in a new, modern 21st-century mindset. Wait, what?

Inventory 404

Inventory Housing Market Marketing Modernization 404

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 18, 2022

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported today on two trends in existing home sales that we have seen for many months now: sales are declining while total inventory data has fallen directly for the three straight months. As mortgage rates rose more and more, the October to January data was going to show big negative prints.

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Inventory Marketing Housing Market New Listings 461

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 29, 2022

The housing sector — especially real estate and mortgage — has seen significant layoffs , while the general economy will create more than 4 million jobs in 2022. Then we had the biggest mortgage rate shock in recent history and yet even with that, we will have over 5 million total home sales this year. Production falls. Home sales.

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Housing Market Marketing Inventory Sellers 545

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 9, 2022

But I need to explain why this level has more in common with 2014 housing data than the credit stress markets of 2005-2008, and why you should care. Inventory levels broke to all-time lows and thus created massive housing inflation quickly, which broke my model. Purchase application data is now below 2008 levels!

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New Listings Inventory Housing Market Sellers 473

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 21, 2022

In addition, this is the fourth straight month of inventory declining, while days on the market are growingl! “The principal factor was the rapid increase in mortgage rates, which hurt housing affordability and reduced incentives for homeowners to list their homes. . Plus, available housing inventory remains near historic lows.”

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Inventory New Listings Housing Market Sellers 511

Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2022

We finally got mortgage rates to rise, and for people like me who have been concerned about how unhealthy the housing market was last year — and it got a lot worse this year — it’s a blessing that was much needed. million line in the sand has been this: Home prices grow above that 23% level: check Mortgage rates spike higher: check.

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Mortgage Inventory Housing Market Construction 449

Housing Wire

MARCH 18, 2022

Inventory has broken to all-time lows, but it doesn’t look like the year-over-year data will be positive at all this year unless demand softens up. You can see why I have been on team higher mortgage rates for some time now because we don’t have any other way to get off this madness. NAR Research : Unsold inventory sits at a 1.7-month

Housing Market 541

Housing Market Marketing Inventory Sellers 541

Housing Wire

APRIL 15, 2022

We’ve all been wondering what 5% plus mortgage rates would do to the hot housing market, and now we’ve got that and a bag of chips. As a result, I’ve been rooting for mortgage rates to rise to create a balancing impact on this housing market. Inventory is still showing negative year-over-year data.

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Housing Market Marketing Mortgage Inventory 493

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 13, 2023

Buying a house was obtainable only for the haves in 2023 as home prices and mortgage rates soared. Homebuyers’ median household income increased by $19,000 this year from 2022, reaching $107,000, according to the National Association of Realtors ’ 2023 Profile of Homebuyers and Sellers. Meanwhile, in September, one-third of U.S.

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Real Estate Agent Real Estate Agents Sellers 359

Housing Wire

AUGUST 30, 2022

While the growth rate is cooling monthly, we are still in a savagely unhhealthy housing market trying to get national inventory levels back to pre-COVID-19 levels. Housing inventory issue with no booming demand. However, we haven’t had a credit sales boom like the one we saw from 2002-2005. million listings.

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Inventory New Listings Law Housing Market 381

Housing Wire

JUNE 28, 2022

Imagine if mortgage rates didn’t rise this year. We are still showing double-digit home-price growth trends in the recent data as it takes time for higher mortgage rates to really increase supply back to normal levels. Since 2014, we’ve not seen the credit housing boom that we saw from 2002-2005.

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Housing Market Marketing Inventory Investors 448

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 26, 2023

New home sales missed estimates today but had three months of positive revisions, which continues the story of the builders managing the higher mortgage rate environment. This is why I have called them efficient home sellers. However, higher mortgage rates make it harder and harder to pull some of those deals off.

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Inventory Construction Housing Market Marketing 457

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 24, 2023

9 up until the early part of February as mortgage rates fell from 7.37% to 5.99%. To combat higher mortgage rates, builders have been cutting prices and buying down rates to move product. If sales are working from an elevated number, like what we saw from 2003-2005, it’s a different subject altogether.

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Inventory Construction Housing Market Mortgage 432

Housing Wire

MAY 14, 2023

Yes, we found the seasonal bottom for housing inventory on April 14, but this year’s rise in active listings has been tepid at best. Mortgage rates fell last week as we started the week at 6.65% and got as low as 6.49% to end the week at 6.55%. Mortgage rates went above 6.25%, then declined back to 5% then spiked back to 7.37%.

Housing Market 427

Housing Market Marketing Inventory New Listings 427

Housing Wire

MAY 24, 2022

A few months ago, I wrote that the new home sales sector is at risk because of rising mortgage rates. I know some people don’t agree with me on this, but the price gains in both the existing home and new home sales sector show that homebuilders and sellers had too much pricing power and needed to be checked.

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Housing Market Inventory Construction Marketing 391

Housing Wire

AUGUST 23, 2022

Tuesday’s new home sales report missed expectations and had negative revisions, which isn’t surprising given this sector of our economy simply can’t handle higher mortgage rates. can’t have a credit sales boom like we saw from 2002-2005. Over the years, I have tried to emphasize that the housing market in the U.S.

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Construction Housing Market Sellers Marketing 370

Housing Wire

MAY 30, 2023

Inventory is still near record lows The easiest economic discussion right now is the housing inventory story in the U.S. People claim inventory isn’t low because “shadow inventory” is on the verge of adding millions of homes into the marketplace any second now. and that it’s historically low.

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Inventory Housing Market New Listings Marketing 453

Housing Wire

JUNE 27, 2023

They’re effective sellers and don’t want to create a backlog of completed units for sale because that would ruin their business model. Some people prefer something other than the current active existing inventory. Also, in the chart below, we can all agree it isn’t housing 2005 or housing 2008 with new home sales.

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Construction Inventory Marketing Buyers 486

Housing Wire

APRIL 25, 2023

You know, the one that says we have too much inventory and millions of vacant homes in the U.S.? However, the people who say low inventory is fake news don’t realize that housing credit channels are very different from 2008, which has prevented total active listings from looking anything like 2008. percent (±15.2 percent (±12.7

Inventory 465

Inventory Housing Market Construction Marketing 465

Housing Wire

JULY 13, 2022

Looking at the housing market in the years 2020-2024, one risk i identified early on was that home prices could accelerate more in this period than we saw in the previous expansion if inventory channels broke to all-time lows. This problem is much different than the housing credit bubble of 2002-2005.

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Inventory Housing Market Mortgage Marketing 539

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 28, 2022

We had a period this summer when mortgage rates moved from 6.25% back down to 5% and some of the new home sales activity picked up. million level we saw in 2005. However, it does show that the builders are in a much better spot to deal with their massive supply, compared to the 2005-2008 period. months of supply, 5.36

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Construction Sellers Inventory Housing Market 459

Housing Wire

JANUARY 5, 2023

The 2022 housing market was savagely unhealthy , with all-time lows in inventory leading to massive bidding wars and price spikes until the Fed put a screeching halt to all of it with rate hikes that resulted in the most significant one-year spike in mortgage rate history. Mortgage rates. Home price s.

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Housing Market Marketing Inventory New Listings 534

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 16, 2023

The truth is that if mortgage rates fell below 5.875% and kept going lower, everyone’s housing predictions would need to be revised this year because the builders can sell their homes with lower mortgage rates. economy isn’t in recession today, and mortgage rates have risen almost 1% from the recent lows.

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Construction Housing Market Inventory Mortgage 479

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 23, 2022

One of the realities of COVID-19 has been the lag to build homes in a business that requires stable mortgage rates because of the traditional time to complete a home. Mortgage rates jumped from 3% to 7.375% this year. That would reverse the problem the housing market has had selling homes with mortgage rates above 7%.

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Construction Housing Market Mortgage Sellers 345

Housing Wire

APRIL 14, 2022

Consolidation in the mortgage industry is likely in 2022, analysts and lending executives said. Justin Woodward has experienced the best and the worst of the mortgage industry in only 18 months. “I had not done first mortgage lending before, but I was familiar with the basics of real estate lending.

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Mortgage Marketing Retail Lending 519

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 22, 2021

It’s the same reason I have given for many years: the American bears who are typically housing crash addicts can’t read data correctly, and the mortgage purchase application data just proved my point once again. million level for three straight months, aligning with the better mortgage demand growth that we saw for four months.

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Inventory Housing Market Investors Marketing 465

Housing Wire

MARCH 28, 2022

However, since I had the possibility of the 10-year yield getting to 2.42% and 4% plus mortgage rates, I accounted for that in the range. The one thing that has happened in 2022 that has been worse is that national inventory levels have worsened in 2022 to start the year. Inventory has been falling for years.

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Housing Market Marketing Supply Chain Inventory 318

Housing Wire

APRIL 27, 2022

That data shows how housing was still on pace to have another solid year before mortgage rates got over 5%. The housing world is much different at 5% plus mortgage rates versus the 3% mortgage world we had last year. The builders have pricing power and they — along with home sellers — have pushed it very hard since 2020.

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Construction Buyers Housing Market Inventory 334

Lamacchia Realty

JANUARY 25, 2024

It kept inventory down, which propped up prices, but sales are down nearly 22%, and buyers are hungry. With rates trying to reach equilibrium after their nosedive in 2020, everyone has had to accept that pandemic-era rates are a thing of the past and therefore higher monthly mortgage payments are here to stay. Sales Decline by 21.7%

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Inventory Sellers Contracts Buyers 70

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 29, 2021

The housing market didn’t crash at all, in fact, more Americans bought homes with mortgages in 2021 than in 2020. mortgage rates, so on the mortgage rate side of the equation, it’s never been better. Home sellers strive to get the highest price from the best offers and homebuilders have the pricing power over consumers.

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Housing Market Marketing Construction Mortgage 525

Lamacchia Realty

MARCH 26, 2024

As you can see in the chart below, Florida has the highest shift in rising inventory over the past twelve months. Source Condo inventory has been rising more than single families as sales have been decreasing since 2023. Source Inventory rises when more sellers are listing than buyers are buying.

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Bracketing HOA Sellers Buyers 61

Lamacchia Realty

OCTOBER 25, 2023

PRICE ADJUSTMENTS AND THE 2023 MARKET In March 2022, it was clear that the market was changing from a frenzied post-pandemic scene to one where it was assumed that rising mortgage rates would slow it down and help inventory finally rise back up. Inventory didn’t increase at the rate most assumed it would. It means they’re down.

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Bracketing Marketing Sellers Buyers 65

Lamacchia Realty

FEBRUARY 22, 2022

The 2021 Massachusetts Year in Review Housing Report breaks down average prices, sales, inventory, new active listings, and pending sales for 2021 compared to 2020 and illustrates what that means for the current market. Below is a graph that illustrates home sales per year since 2005. Inventory of Homes for Sale. That’s a 37.4%

Inventory 51

Inventory Sellers Buyers Real Estate 51

Lamacchia Realty

DECEMBER 28, 2021

The inventory of homes for sale and the number of homes being listed for sale were not nearly enough to satisfy the buyer demand. Even though the inventory of homes for sale at any given time all year stayed lower than ever, it did not decrease sales overall. 2021 Recap. Yes, you read that correctly, worse. It is a real problem.

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Sellers Inventory Buyers Realtors 74

Lamacchia Realty

APRIL 15, 2022

Rates dropped to historic lows to keep buyers buying, prompting an influx of new applications and re-finances as obtaining a mortgage was more affordable than ever. Sellers kept listing, albeit, at a much slower pace, and buyers were buying at the highest rate in over 15 years, absorbing inventory faster than ever.

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Marketing Sellers Buyers Inventory 66

Lamacchia Realty

JUNE 21, 2022

In early March it was becoming clear that the market was changing from a frenzied post-pandemic scene to one where rising mortgage rates would slow it down and help inventory finally rise back up. Rising prices weren’t favorable but with historically low mortgage rates , they were still affordable for buyers.

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Housing Market Bracketing Marketing Sellers 65