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New home sales are at risk with rising mortgage rates ?

Housing Wire

We finally got mortgage rates to rise, and for people like me who have been concerned about how unhealthy the housing market was last year — and it got a lot worse this year — it’s a blessing that was much needed. million line in the sand has been this: Home prices grow above that 23% level: check Mortgage rates spike higher: check.

Mortgage 479
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New home sales make it clear: Housing is in a recession

Housing Wire

This data line confirms what we all know to be the case: The housing market, at least as it relates to construction, is in a recession. We talked about this in March , and even last year, when I wrote about the problem with the housing construction boom premise. “I don’t expect a boom in housing construction.

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New home sales report boosted by positive revisions

Housing Wire

It gives an idea of what to expect for housing construction. months and above, the builders will pull back on construction. The real question is how much higher mortgage rates will bite the most sensitive sector to rates: new homes. The builders will pull back on construction growth if new homes sales start to head lower.

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Low housing inventory a win for homebuilders

Housing Wire

They can cut prices, pay down mortgage rates for their buyers, and do what they need to to make it work for them to move their products. As I have stressed time after time, we shouldn’t be using the housing economic models of 2002-2008 — that would have led everyone to believe we had a mass supply of housing coming online in 2022.

Inventory 544
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Builders only have 76,000 completed new homes for sale

Housing Wire

New home sales missed estimates today but had three months of positive revisions, which continues the story of the builders managing the higher mortgage rate environment. However, higher mortgage rates make it harder and harder to pull some of those deals off. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

Inventory 491
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New home sales still show a historic backlog

Housing Wire

One of the realities of COVID-19 has been the lag to build homes in a business that requires stable mortgage rates because of the traditional time to complete a home. It didn’t help the builders that they had a global pandemic and we still have many new homes either in construction or that haven’t been started yet. percent (±22.7

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New home sales beats estimates, but what does it mean?

Housing Wire

Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. As you can see below, new home sales are still below the 2000 recession level, and we just had a significant spike in mortgage rates too. These monthly reports can be very wild, and I anticipate big swings in the reports until things calm down with mortgage rates.

Inventory 463