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New home sales make it clear: Housing is in a recession

Housing Wire

This data line confirms what we all know to be the case: The housing market, at least as it relates to construction, is in a recession. Since the summer of 2020, I have genuinely believed the housing market could change once the 10-year yield broke over 1.94%. In response, they stalled construction for 30 months.

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Wow — 6 million existing home sales! However, context is key with 2020 housing market data

Housing Wire

housing market and compare those to where we are today — in the middle of one of the most epic years in our country’s history, due to COVID-19. No doubt about it, the COVID crisis has taken some juice out of the 2020 housing market. The February housing data, pre-COVID, was juicy indeed. higher than a year ago.

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New home sales are at risk with rising mortgage rates ?

Housing Wire

We finally got mortgage rates to rise, and for people like me who have been concerned about how unhealthy the housing market was last year — and it got a lot worse this year — it’s a blessing that was much needed. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. The only risk to that 6.2 percent (±11.9

Mortgage 488
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Low housing inventory a win for homebuilders

Housing Wire

However, with active listings now near all-time lows, the builders’ new homes still have more value in the housing market than what we saw in previous decades. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. months and below, this is an excellent market for builders. percent (±15.3

Inventory 543
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New home sales report boosted by positive revisions

Housing Wire

From the National Association of Home Builders : For many years I have stressed that the most important housing data I follow is the monthly supply of new homes. It gives an idea of what to expect for housing construction. adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of January was 406,000. When supply is 4.4

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Builders only have 76,000 completed new homes for sale

Housing Wire

From Census : New home sales Sales of new single‐family houses in August 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 675,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. months, the builders will pause construction. percent (±15.6

Inventory 489
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Are new home sales flagging a recession?

Housing Wire

A lot of the housing data was lagging the rate move, so it wasn’t apparent that higher rates impacted the data yet. Going back to the summer of 2020, the one factor that I said could change the housing market was the 10-year yield getting above 1.94%. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.