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Lower mortgage rates are stabilizing the housing market

Housing Wire

These were forced credit sellers, which means these sellers don’t sell to buy a home like a traditional seller does. Since they were distressed forced sellers, inventory skyrocketed in 2006 and stayed very elevated in 2007 and 2008. As we can see below, none of that is happening today because the seller isn’t stressed.

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Days on market grow despite low inventory for existing homes

Housing Wire

Seasonal impacts are the norm with housing, and new listing data is negative 6% year to date. We saw new listing data decline when rates got to 6.25% the first time. A traditional seller is primarily a homebuyer, so not only do we lose the inventory for sale when this happens, but we also lose a buyer.

Inventory 464
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Home prices climb amid shrinking inventory, modest bump in demand

Housing Wire

New listings aren’t filling the gap either. months of supply on a seasonally adjusted basis, “tipping the scale back toward sellers in a tightly constricted market,” Walden said. March also saw a deterioration in supply in 90% of major markets. In March, 30% fewer properties hit the market when compared to pre-pandemic norms.

Inventory 382
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Higher rates flip the homebuilders’ fortunes (again)

Housing Wire

As we can see in the chart below, we are still below the recession levels of 2000 and really trending at 1996 levels. When we look at active listings today, we are still at 980,000, near all-time lows, even with the recent massive hit to demand. To get more inventory you need more Americans to list their homes.

Inventory 477
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Housing inventory still near record lows

Housing Wire

If we are trending below 4 million — a possibility with new listing data trending at all-time lows — then we have much weaker demand than people think. As we can see below, from 2000, total active housing inventory rose from 2 million to 2.5 Now if we get a few sales prints above 4.6 Also, demand has stabilized since Nov.

Inventory 525
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New Hampshire 2023 Year in Review

Lamacchia Realty

Sales in New Hampshire declined by 18.9% The drop in nearly 4,000 closings wasn’t just because buyers weren’t buying; they would, but many couldn’t because sellers weren’t selling. 2023 Sees the Lowest Number of Homes Listed in Twenty-Three Years Listings in 2023 experienced a substantial 15.1% Sales Decline by 18.9%

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Massachusetts 2023 Year in Review

Lamacchia Realty

There were 71,149 homes listed on the market compared to 2022, which had 87,536. Sellers are sitting on their hands because although they may want to move, they’re hesitating to do so because they don’t want to trade in their pandemic-era rates. Therefore, we are in a market with the lowest amount of new listings since 1994.