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New listings data falls for third week in a row 

Housing Wire

New listings data has been moving lower over the last few weeks. But, we need to see more growth in new listings data just to grow from 2023 levels. 2023 new listings data was the lowest ever on record, so it’s already a low bar.

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New listings data is growing and prices still aren’t crashing

Housing Wire

Housing inventory is growing, but national home prices aren’t dropping dramatically, as the recent S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller index clearly showed. The rules of supply and demand economics always end up winning and weekly new listing data is key. Last week, we saw a positive inventory growth of 11,638 !

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New listings data unfazed by 8% mortgage rates

Housing Wire

New listing data appears unafraid of the mortgage rate ghost story over the last few months. Unlike last year, when new listings data had a noticeable move lower once mortgage rates reached 6%, 8% mortgage rates haven’t had any noticeable impact on the latest new listings data.

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2024 inventory growth challenges mortgage rate lockdown

Housing Wire

The mortgage rate lockdown premise holds that very few people will list their homes when mortgage rates are this high, thus suppressing inventory. 2024 has had healthy inventory growth despite mortgage rates above 7%. Each time, inventory has squared right into the model as long as rates stay elevated.

Inventory 514
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Finally, some healthy housing inventory growth

Housing Wire

Housing inventory finally hit my target level of growth last week with mortgage rates now over 7.25% , something I couldn’t get all last year. Of course, what is different this year versus last year is that new listing data is growing yearly instead of trending at the lowest levels recorded in history. 2022: 18.7%

Inventory 504
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Spring housing market gets more inventory

Housing Wire

Active weekly housing inventory growth slowed slightly last week, but it’s still running at a healthier clip than in 2023. I have a simple model with mortgage rates being above 7.25%: weekly inventory data should grow between 11,000-17,000 per week. We have now seen it for two weeks as inventory grew by 13,247. 2022: 19.2%

Inventory 504
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Did lower mortgage rates slow housing inventory growth?

Housing Wire

My model for inventory growth with higher mortgage rates came crashing down last week. After two weeks of significant increases , inventory growth slowed dramatically and is far from my 11,000-17,000 growth model with mortgage rates over 7.25%. I wish new listings were growing faster, but I will call it a victory nonetheless.

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