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How housing credit is shaping housing inventory

Housing Wire

You can see the drastic change this made in the Mortgage Bankers Association Credit Availability index , below, which skyrocketed in 2005 and 2006 before an epic collapse in 2008. Since most sellers are buyers, inventory should be stable if demand is stable. So you can see why we have so few stressed sellers.

Inventory 483
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Why purchase application data is below 2008 levels

Housing Wire

But I need to explain why this level has more in common with 2014 housing data than the credit stress markets of 2005-2008, and why you should care. This time around, we have not seen the kind of housing credit boom that we did from 2002-2005. New listing data is down 5% year to date, as you can imagine.

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Have we found the bottom in existing home sales?

Housing Wire

.” One of the housing economic realities that I have been trying to stress this year is that a traditional seller of a home is typically a buyer as well. This explains why total active listing inventory data has been stable over the decades, with the exception of 2006-2011, when those forced distressed credit home sellers couldn’t buy.

Inventory 525
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Why home-price growth is still up 18% year over year

Housing Wire

However, we haven’t had a credit sales boom like the one we saw from 2002-2005. Total Inventory had been growing from 2001-2005; total listings data in 2005 was at the higher historical range of 2.5 million listings. Today, we stand at 1,310,000 active listings. New listings are declining now.

Inventory 382
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Lower mortgage rates are stabilizing the housing market

Housing Wire

As you can see from the chart above, the last several years have not had the FOMO (fear of missing out) housing credit boom we saw from 2002-2005. What I mean by a credit bust is that after the housing bubble burst in 2005 into 2006, we saw a massive increase in supply. Total inventory levels. NAR: Total Inventory levels 1.22

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Housing inventory falls under 1M again as sales collapse

Housing Wire

The lack of sellers is also a demand problem and what we saw after June of 2022 is that sellers called it quits earlier and faster in the year than usual, resulting in total existing home sales totaling 5,030,000 to end 2022. During that period, we saw new listing data decline.

Inventory 540
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Housing Market Tracker: Spring inventory grows

Housing Wire

Weekly housing inventory Since new listing data was trending at all-time lows in 2023, some feared we wouldn’t see the typical spring inventory increase. After the last few weeks , we can put that fear aside: we are finally getting the seasonal increase in active listing. didn’t go into recession until 2008.

Inventory 516