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Why home-price growth is still up 18% year over year

Housing Wire

However, we haven’t had a credit sales boom like the one we saw from 2002-2005. Total Inventory had been growing from 2001-2005; total listings data in 2005 was at the higher historical range of 2.5 million listings. Today, we stand at 1,310,000 active listings. New listings are declining now.

Inventory 382
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Have we found the bottom in existing home sales?

Housing Wire

We have had two historic events that created a waterfall dive in demand recently; we now have precise data showing new listing data declining with those events, which shows how important that data line is to housing demand. Mortgage rates spiked in March, and then the new listing data started to decline at the end of June.

Inventory 525
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Housing inventory falls under 1M again as sales collapse

Housing Wire

During that period, we saw new listing data decline. However, in 2020 new listing data came back, and we don’t want to see the new listings continue to decline this year — that would be a double negative for the housing market. So the fact that we are back to an average of 26 days on market makes me happier.

Inventory 540
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Days on market grow despite low inventory for existing homes

Housing Wire

NAR Research : First-time buyers were responsible for 28% of sales in October; All-cash sales accounted for 26%; Individual investors purchased 16%; Distressed sales represented 1% of sales; Properties typically remained on the market for 21 days in October. We saw new listing data decline when rates got to 6.25% the first time.

Inventory 464
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Housing inventory still near record lows

Housing Wire

If we are trending below 4 million — a possibility with new listing data trending at all-time lows — then we have much weaker demand than people think. million before we saw the massive stress spike in supply from 2005 to 2007. We have a workable range for 2023 sales in the existing home sales market between 4 million and 4.6

Inventory 525
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The savagely unhealthy housing market is back

Housing Wire

Credit channels and inventory channels both changed after 2010 because of the qualified mortgage laws and the 2005 bankruptcy reform laws. There is a better case that we can get below 4 million if mortgage rates stay high and new listing data starts its seasonal decline in the data.