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How home-price growth has damaged the housing market

Housing Wire

This data line lags the current housing market as it’s a few months old. I developed a specific home-price growth model for the years 2020-2024 which said that if home-price growth grew at 23% for five years we would be fine, with total housing demand —both new and existing homes together — getting to 6.2

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Dave Stevens on understanding this housing market

Housing Wire

I have been part of the mortgage banking industry since 1983 — 39 years to date through different housing markets. In many ways it was similar to today, with one exception: When I started, I hadn’t been spoiled by a housing market like the one in 2020 and 2021. economy, especially the mortgage and housing sector.

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New home sales are at risk with rising mortgage rates ?

Housing Wire

We finally got mortgage rates to rise, and for people like me who have been concerned about how unhealthy the housing market was last year — and it got a lot worse this year — it’s a blessing that was much needed. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. The only risk to that 6.2 percent (±11.9

Mortgage 481
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Are new home sales flagging a recession?

Housing Wire

A lot of the housing data was lagging the rate move, so it wasn’t apparent that higher rates impacted the data yet. Going back to the summer of 2020, the one factor that I said could change the housing market was the 10-year yield getting above 1.94%. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

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Builders only have 76,000 completed new homes for sale

Housing Wire

This is why I have called them efficient home sellers. From Census : New home sales Sales of new single‐family houses in August 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 675,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

Inventory 479
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New home sales still show a historic backlog

Housing Wire

The truth here that nobody wants to talk about is that we didn’t have a massive sales credit boom in housing from 2020-2021 like we saw from 2002-2005. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. However, even if I adjust for that, sales trends have bounced off the lows for a while.

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New home sales rebound, but builders are still wary

Housing Wire

In reality, as we talked about many times on HousingWire, housing data was going to moderate, find a base and work from that COVID-19 surge in the data. However, with that said, it’s still just an OK housing market for me based on how I view the new home sales market. This is 11.9 percent (±20.3 percent (±16.6