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Logan Mohtashami on why this is a savagely unhealthy housing market

Housing Wire

HousingWire: How will rising rates affect new home construction? Logan Mohtashami: Rising rates make housing less affordable, so for a first-time home buyer that doesn’t have the benefit of selling their home with that nested equity, it makes it harder for them. What does this mean for first-time homebuyers?

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Comparing this housing market recession to 2008

Housing Wire

The housing market of 2002-2005 had four years of sales growth facilitated by credit. However, what isn’t identical is that we have not had a massive sales boom like we saw from 2002-2005. This is significantly different than the period from 2002-2005 when credit expansion was booming. Home sales. Housing credit.

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New home sales are at risk with rising mortgage rates ?

Housing Wire

It’s also driven more by mortgage buyers who tend to be older and make more money than the new-home buyers. Compared to the existing home sales marketplace, it doesn’t have a high cash buyer or investor buyer profile. months and above, the builders will pull back on construction. percent (±11.9 percent (±13.7

Mortgage 480
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Purchase apps are at 2009 level: where’s the inventory?

Housing Wire

That’s not the case now because we have’t had a credit boom post-2010 as we did from 2002 to 2005. However, the spike in inventory that we saw from 2006 to 2011 can be attributed to the massive credit bubble we had from 2002 to 2005. We have more housing starts under construction now than in recent history!

Inventory 518
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New home sales still show a historic backlog

Housing Wire

It didn’t help the builders that they had a global pandemic and we still have many new homes either in construction or that haven’t been started yet. months 290,000 new homes are still under construction, about 5.5 We must remember that the builders don’t operate like existing home sellers; they treat their products as commodities.

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The new home sales recession continues

Housing Wire

So for now, the builders will take their time with the homes under construction and make sure they offer enough incentives to unload the new home supply they’re dealing with. can’t have a credit sales boom like we saw from 2002-2005. This time, we have less production of homes and more multifamily construction. This is 12.6

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March new home sales: the last positive revision for 2022?

Housing Wire

The new home sales market doesn’t have a 28% cash-buyer profile as we saw in the last existing home sales report. So, while cash buyers as a percent of sales have been growing, this sector is driven by mortgage buyers primarily. Builders have to find buyers for canceled homes, then think about their demand.