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Lower mortgage rates are stabilizing the housing market

Housing Wire

Since the weaker CPI data was released in November, bond yields and mortgage rates have been heading lower. The question then was: What would lower mortgage rates do to this data? However, mortgage rates have fallen more than 1% since the recent highs, so it’s time to look at the data to explain how to interpret it.

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Why purchase application data is below 2008 levels

Housing Wire

In the summer of 2020, I talked about how the housing market would change, but it needed the 10-year yield to break over 1.94%, which roughly means 4% plus mortgage rates. This time around, we have not seen the kind of housing credit boom that we did from 2002-2005. New listing data is down 5% year to date, as you can imagine.

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Housing inventory falls under 1M again as sales collapse

Housing Wire

The lack of sellers is also a demand problem and what we saw after June of 2022 is that sellers called it quits earlier and faster in the year than usual, resulting in total existing home sales totaling 5,030,000 to end 2022. During that period, we saw new listing data decline. The days on market were too low.

Inventory 540
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Why home-price growth is still up 18% year over year

Housing Wire

However, we haven’t had a credit sales boom like the one we saw from 2002-2005. Total Inventory had been growing from 2001-2005; total listings data in 2005 was at the higher historical range of 2.5 million listings. I don’t need to see total active listing get back to the historical range of 2-2.5 From Redfin.

Inventory 397
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Existing home sales data shows extent of housing inflation

Housing Wire

Even though this was a beat of estimates, the sales decline trend due to higher mortgage rates and home prices continues. The savagely unhealthy housing market theme of mine is running in full force now as we have gotten no relief on home prices and now have a mega jump in mortgage rates. . However, it’s not the market of 2002-2011.

Inventory 477
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The standoff between homebuyers and sellers

Housing Wire

There’s a showdown at the housing market corral between homebuyers and sellers. To top it all off, we started 2022 at all-time lows, forcing bidding action everywhere until mortgage rates rose. And we aren’t talking about your grandfather’s mortgage rates rising; we went from 2.5% Image by Brandon Johnson/HW Media.).

Sellers 514
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New Hampshire 2023 Year in Review

Lamacchia Realty

The drop in nearly 4,000 closings wasn’t just because buyers weren’t buying; they would, but many couldn’t because sellers weren’t selling. 2023 Sees the Lowest Number of Homes Listed in Twenty-Three Years Listings in 2023 experienced a substantial 15.1% The year-over-year increases spanned from 4.2% A lot to digest.