Housing Wire

DECEMBER 9, 2023

The most underreported housing story I’ve seen this year is that even with mortgage rates rising to 8%, the number of homes that took price cuts before they sold was 4% below 2022 levels. This happened even with higher home prices and higher mortgage rates in 2023. Now lets take a look at the weekly inventory data.

Mortgage 527

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Sellers 527

Housing Wire

MARCH 2, 2024

The mortgage rate lockdown premise says that if rates rise, inventory can’t grow meaningfully. The idea is that nobody will trade their low mortgage rates to buy another home — even though this happened every week last year. With mortgage rates higher, will this stop inventory from growing year over year?

Inventory 532

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Housing Market 532

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 17, 2024

Will mortgage rates break toward 8% again, making another 2024 data line that looks like a carbon copy of 2023? It’s not part of my 2024 forecast, but since the Federal Reserve likes playing with fire , let’s look at where we are with mortgage rates and their impact on weekly housing data. Serious mortgage rate talk!

Mortgage 521

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Housing Market 521

Housing Wire

MARCH 9, 2024

We survived jobs week and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell talking to Congress, with mortgage rates ending the week below 7%. But will mortgage rates keep heading lower? Mortgage rates and the 10-year yield The 10-year yield is the key for all my housing work, so I focus on it religiously. We haven’t broken either yet.

Mortgage 461

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Housing Market 461

Housing Wire

JANUARY 20, 2024

Housing inventory, new listing data and mortgage rates are all rising, but the price cut data percentages are falling. I will watch for rising mortgage rates to see if they change the weekly data. I will watch for rising mortgage rates to see if they change the weekly data. So far, so good in 2024.

Inventory 540

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Sellers 540

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 25, 2023

Lower mortgage rates tend to take housing supply off the market and demand has been picking up lately as rates have fallen. However, the recent drop in housing inventory has more to do with seasonality factors than lower mortgage rates. The question now is what will inventory look like in the spring if mortgage rates keep falling?

Inventory 531

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Buyers 531

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 4, 2024

How will mortgage rates impact seasonal inventory in 2024? Also, when mortgage rates rise, the inventory peak happens later in the year. New listings were trending at the lowest levels ever in 2023, but that should not be the case in 2024. Is the seasonal bottom going to happen later than I want?

Inventory 506

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Housing Market 506

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 24, 2023

Mortgage rates shot up last week after a hawkish Federal Reserve meeting, even though they didn’t raise rates. Mortgage rates did find some relief on Friday as bond yields headed lower. On housing inventory , new listings data saw a small decline last week, but active listings grew at a healthy clip.

Mortgage 438

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Housing Market 438

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 2, 2023

Mortgage rates almost fell below 7%, the 10-year yield is below 4.25% again, and people are seriously talking about Fed rate cuts in 2024. Mortgage rates have fallen by almost 1% in a short time, and it has created four straight weeks of positive purchase application data. Mortgage rates and the 10-year yield We are back!

Mortgage 542

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Sellers 542

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 4, 2023

After mortgage rates spiked to 8% in October, causing a riot in the real estate industry, we had an epic move lower in mortgage rates last week. Does this mean we’ve hit the peak in mortgage rates for this economic cycle? When mortgage rates rise and demand decreases, the percentage of homes with price cuts can grow.

Mortgage 472

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Real Estate 472

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 3, 2023

We had a crazy jobs week last week, with tons of data that the Federal Reserve was happy to see, but did those labor reports mean we’ve hit peak mortgage rates for 2023? Mortgage rates did fall, purchase application data rose and new listings data came back to trend. 18: 60,295 Aug. 25: 55,291 Sept.

Mortgage 448

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Marketing 448

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 18, 2023

Did the recent move lower in mortgage rates turn the housing market positive? With mortgage rates moving almost 75 basis points lower from the highs, does the data show that demand has improved? I talked about how much lower mortgage rates can go from here in this recent podcast. I failed 100% of the time so far.

Mortgage 461

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Housing Market 461

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 28, 2023

31, 2022, that mortgage rates would hit 8% in 2023, you would reasonably assume housing inventory would sky rocket higher, home prices would fall noticeably, and the number of price cuts would be higher year over year. While new listings are still trending at the lowest levels ever recorded in history, we are forming a bottom in this data.

Inventory 499

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Marketing 499

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 30, 2023

Why are mortgage rates rising? The jobless claims data is my key 2023 economic data line for the bond market and mortgage rates because I don’t believe the Fed will pivot until the four-week moving average of jobless claims gets above 323,000. Mortgage rates went from 7.39% to a high of 7.65% and ended the week at 7.44%.

Mortgage 492

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Government 492

Housing Wire

APRIL 20, 2024

Housing inventory finally hit my target level of growth last week with mortgage rates now over 7.25% , something I couldn’t get all last year. Of course, what is different this year versus last year is that new listing data is growing yearly instead of trending at the lowest levels recorded in history. 2022: 18.7% 2022: 18.7%

Inventory 484

Inventory New Listings Mortgage Finance 484

Housing Wire

APRIL 27, 2024

I have a simple model with mortgage rates being above 7.25%: weekly inventory data should grow between 11,000-17,000 per week. This isn’t saying too much since 2023 had the lowest recorded level of new listings ever, but it’s still a plus in my book. The mortgage spread data got worse last week. 2022: 19.2%

Inventory 497

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 497

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 16, 2023

The last four weeks of new listings data have been the most volatile since mortgage rates breached 6% in 2022. One week, we had the biggest decline in new listings data all year, which might indicate Americans are giving up on listing their homes. What’s going on with housing inventory ?

Inventory 473

Inventory New Listings Housing Market Mortgage 473

Housing Wire

APRIL 6, 2024

Weekly housing inventory data — both active inventory and new listings — are prone to one-week moves that deviate from a trend, especially if people are going Easter egg hunting. So, the fact that active inventory and new listings data fell last week isn’t a big deal. However, for now, this is a plus for the U.S.

Inventory 443

Inventory New Listings Mortgage Housing Market 443

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 30, 2023

Looking back on 2023, the inventory story was a big surprise even as mortgage rates headed toward 8%, as the data below will show. This didn’t happen once in 2023 — even with rising mortgage rates. What we want to see in 2024 is new listing data growing in the spring season. Weekly inventory change (Dec.

Inventory 502

Inventory New Listings Housing Market Mortgage 502

Housing Wire

AUGUST 13, 2023

Last week ended with a wild ride for mortgage rates. We anticipated the two inflation reports could help mortgage rates, however, we had a bad bond auction last Thursday, and the 10-year yield rose sharply. This pushed yields higher Thursday and Friday to move mortgage rates to 7.19%. We saw an example of that last week.

Mortgage 367

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Retail 367

Housing Wire

AUGUST 20, 2023

Last week, mortgage rates hit a 21st-century high, the 10-year yield closed slightly higher than my peak forecast for 2023 , and housing inventory growth was still slow. Weekly active listings rose by only 4,401. Mortgage rates went from 7.19%% to 7.37%. Purchase application data didn’t budge much on the week-to-week data.

Inventory 369

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Sellers 369

Housing Wire

MARCH 30, 2024

The best housing story in 2024 is that inventory is growing — both active inventory and new listings. With mortgage rates at the current levels, inventory is still below my expectations, but it’s still such a positive story that I had to discuss it on CNBC last week. Still, new listing data is a positive story.

Inventory 429

Inventory New Listings Mortgage Housing Market 429

Housing Wire

MARCH 26, 2023

These events led to lower mortgage rates and increased purchase application data last week, but decreased housing inventory. Here’s a quick rundown of the last week: The 10-year yield had a Lord of Rings battle at a critical technical level, pushing mortgage rates lower at the end of the week with no real break in the bond market.

Inventory 440

Inventory Housing Market Marketing Mortgage 440

Housing Wire

MARCH 16, 2024

The 10-year yield is at the same critical point as last year before the Fed went hawkish and sent mortgage rates to 8% and the 10-year yield to 5%. A serious 10-year yield and mortgage rate talk My work on housing moves around the 10-year yield and the economics that move that. Could this happen again?

Housing Market 457

Housing Market Inventory New Listings Marketing 457

Housing Wire

APRIL 23, 2023

We didn’t see too much volatility in mortgage rates last week, but purchase apps declined in reaction to rates rising two weeks ago. Here’s a quick rundown of the last week: Active listings rose by 8,546 , and new listing data showed some growth. Again, I am a bit mindful here due to Easter.

Inventory 545

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 545

Housing Wire

JANUARY 28, 2024

But, even with mortgage rates higher this year than last year, demand is rising. Once I make some holiday adjustments, we have eight weeks of a positive trend since mortgage rates fell from the 8% high , and as of now, the slightly higher rates we’ve seen recently haven’t impacted the data just yet. This is common in January.

Inventory 516

Inventory New Listings Mortgage Marketing 516

Housing Wire

MAY 21, 2023

The 10-year yield rose noticeably, sending mortgage rates near 7% right in the heart of the spring selling season. New listings data fell, however, active inventory grew. Here’s a quick rundown of the last week: Total active listings grew by 3,809 weekly, but new listings are still trending at all-time lows.

Housing Market 488

Housing Market Marketing Inventory New Listings 488

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 10, 2024

While weekly inventory is still falling, we have year-over-year growth in total active listing and new listings data. This calls into question a mortgage rate lockdown, as mortgage rates are also higher year over year. For the first time in a while, this was a good week for new listing data.

Inventory 507

Inventory New Listings Retail Mortgage 507

Housing Wire

JANUARY 6, 2024

I believe this was the most overlooked housing story of the last year because even as mortgage rates rose all the way to 8% , the home price cut percentage data was always about 4% lower year over year. Now that mortgage rates have fallen and as we start the brand new year, we need to focus on this data line more.

Inventory 541

Inventory New Listings Housing Market Mortgage 541

Housing Wire

APRIL 30, 2023

The spring housing market music is playing, and purchase application data and active listing inventory rose together last week. The other focus should be where mortgage rates go; only a little happened last week. Also, the volume of active listings was higher in 2022 this week, even though we were working from a lower level.

Inventory 515

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 515

Housing Wire

MARCH 12, 2023

Mortgage rates fell even though the jobs report was stronger than anticipated. They reversed their bearish take on bonds, and people started to buy the 10-year yield, causing mortgage rates to fall. As a result, mortgage rates, which climbed as high as 7.05% last week, fell to a low of 6.76% on Friday. million in 2023.

Housing Market 370

Housing Market Mortgage Marketing Inventory 370

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 16, 2023

The Federal Reserve played the good grinch for Christmas this year and delivered the best gift for homebuyers nationwide, leading to lower mortgage rates. The 10-year yield and mortgage rates fell together after the Fed meetings, which gave us mortgage rates under 7% last week. We have had an almost 1.5%

Inventory 533

Inventory New Listings Mortgage Law 533

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 10, 2023

Last week we saw a noticeable decline in new listings and active inventory was barely positive. New listing data is getting interesting: two weeks ago, we had a noticeable decline from the trend and then a weekly rebound. Does this mean housing inventory has begun its seasonal decline?

Inventory 474

Inventory New Listings Retail Mortgage 474

Housing Wire

JANUARY 13, 2024

6-13): Inventory rose from 471,349 to 473,406 The inventory bottom for 2022 was 240,194 The inventory peak for 2023 is 569,898 For context, active listings for this week in 2015 were 931,002 I don’t want to jinx this because active inventory rose last year at this time. This 10-year yield range means mortgage rates between 5.75%-7.25%.

Inventory 527

Inventory New Listings Retail Mortgage 527

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 11, 2023

Total housing inventory growth has been slow in 2023, but with rising mortgage rates over the last few months, inventory has grown a bit faster than average. But even with mortgage rates getting as high as 8%, we’ve yet to hit within that range. Last week, mortgage rates rose toward 7.56%. Weekly inventory change (Nov.

Inventory 462

Inventory New Listings Mortgage Retail 462

Housing Wire

MAY 7, 2023

Just when I thought it was safe to say we were getting more traditional spring housing inventory , we hit a snag last week, as active inventory and new listings declined. We had a lot of drama over the week between Federal Reserve meetings and banking stress, and mortgage rates and purchase applications both fell.

Inventory 483

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 483

Housing Wire

JULY 9, 2023

In addition, mortgage rates rose to a yearly high as labor data stayed firm and purchase apps had their first negative week after three straight weeks of positive growth. The weekly active listing data had a rare week-to-week decline. This is truly a savagely unhealthy housing market as we have too many people chasing too few homes.

Inventory 468

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 468