Housing Wire

MAY 25, 2024

The mortgage rate lockdown premise holds that very few people will list their homes when mortgage rates are this high, thus suppressing inventory. 2024 has had healthy inventory growth despite mortgage rates above 7%. Each time, inventory has squared right into the model as long as rates stay elevated.

Inventory 459

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Marketing 459

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 21, 2023

The haunted house ride with the bond market and mortgage rates continued this week, but one housing data line hasn’t been spooked. New listing data appears unafraid of the mortgage rate ghost story over the last few months. Last year, the seasonal peak for inventory was Oct.

New Listings 516

New Listings Mortgage Inventory Housing Market 516

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 30, 2023

Going into 2023, people thought housing inventory would skyrocket, home prices would crash, and we would see the housing market of 2008 all over again. We created this weekly tracker at the end of 2022 to give people a live weekly outlook on everything that drives the housing market and which factors to follow.

Inventory 488

Inventory New Listings Housing Market Mortgage 488

Housing Wire

JUNE 11, 2023

After seeing disappointing inventory growth two weeks ago , which I chalked up to the Memorial Day holiday, I was hoping for a big push in active listings last week, but that didn’t happen. Here’s a quick rundown of the last week: Active inventory grew 6,722 weekly. First, it took the longest time in U.S.

Inventory 476

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 476

Housing Wire

JULY 2, 2023

Housing inventory finally broke under 2022 levels last week. To give you an idea how different this year is from last year, last week in 2022, active listings grew 30,940 while this year they only grew 5,848. Since May 15, that trend has continued to the point that inventory in America is now negative year over year.

Inventory 447

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 447

Housing Wire

MARCH 6, 2023

The housing market faced some serious obstacles last week as the 10-year yield broke over 4%, mortgage rates rose to over 7%, purchase apps fell again and we are still trying to find the elusive seasonal bottom for housing inventory. We still aren’t back to pre-COVID-19 housing inventory levels, as shown below.

Inventory 427

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 427

Housing Wire

JUNE 25, 2023

Summer is here, and housing inventory is finally growing! The spring housing inventory was like a zombie rising from the grave, very slow, but the summer is showing some promise and let’s hope it continues. Here’s a quick rundown of the last week: Active inventory grew 8,886 weekly.

Inventory 404

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 404

Housing Wire

JUNE 4, 2023

Last week we saw a noticeable slowdown in housing inventory growth that I hope has more to do with a holiday week than a trend. Here’s a quick rundown of the last week: Active inventory grew 3,180 weekly , and new listing data fell week to week and is still trending at an all-time low in 2023.

Inventory 398

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 398

Housing Wire

APRIL 20, 2024

Housing inventory finally hit my target level of growth last week with mortgage rates now over 7.25% , something I couldn’t get all last year. Of course, what is different this year versus last year is that new listing data is growing yearly instead of trending at the lowest levels recorded in history. 2022: 18.7%

Inventory 466

Inventory New Listings Mortgage Finance 466

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 23, 2023

housing market and that they need to be pro-housing again. Even with all the drama we have dealt with in 2022-2023, the housing market stayed intact and never broke. We never saw the Airbnb crash that dominated some of the housing headlines in 2023. Weekly inventory change : (Dec.15-22)

Housing Market 517

Housing Market Marketing Inventory New Listings 517

Housing Wire

APRIL 3, 2023

Last week was relatively calm for the housing market after the fiasco of the banking crisis. Housing demand grew and inventory levels fell again while mortgage rates rose. Active inventory fell by 3,141, and new listing data fell again and is still trending at all-time lows.

Inventory 469

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 469

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 16, 2023

What’s going on with housing inventory ? The last four weeks of new listings data have been the most volatile since mortgage rates breached 6% in 2022. One week, we had the biggest decline in new listings data all year, which might indicate Americans are giving up on listing their homes.

Inventory 457

Inventory New Listings Housing Market Mortgage 457

Housing Wire

MARCH 2, 2024

The mortgage rate lockdown premise says that if rates rise, inventory can’t grow meaningfully. Let’s take a look at the inventory data this year to test this premise, since for many months it has been a working theory of mine that new listings data behavior last year marked a bottom and even going into 2024 we should see more sellers.

Inventory 531

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Housing Market 531

Housing Wire

MARCH 26, 2023

The financial and housing markets are still trying to sort out the banking crisis and whether we have seen the last Fed rate hike in this cycle. These events led to lower mortgage rates and increased purchase application data last week, but decreased housing inventory. In a regular market, they would be closer to 5.25%.

Inventory 434

Inventory Housing Market Marketing Mortgage 434

Housing Wire

MAY 4, 2024

My model for inventory growth with higher mortgage rates came crashing down last week. After two weeks of significant increases , inventory growth slowed dramatically and is far from my 11,000-17,000 growth model with mortgage rates over 7.25%. I wish new listings were growing faster, but I will call it a victory nonetheless.

Inventory 403

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Marketing 403

Housing Wire

MARCH 30, 2024

The best housing story in 2024 is that inventory is growing — both active inventory and new listings. With mortgage rates at the current levels, inventory is still below my expectations, but it’s still such a positive story that I had to discuss it on CNBC last week. 2022: 17.2%

Inventory 403

Inventory New Listings Mortgage Housing Market 403

Housing Wire

JULY 23, 2023

The slow rise of housing inventory this year has made the existing home sales market savagely unhealthy again. However, last week was good; we had less inventory growth than I would like to see, but it’s better than the past few weeks. Can we keep this up before the seasonal decline of active listings?

Inventory 356

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 356

Housing Wire

JANUARY 28, 2024

Weekly housing inventory data Here is a look at last week: Weekly inventory change (Jan. 19-26) : Inventory fell from 506,414 to 503,233 Same week last year (Jan. Weekly housing inventory data Here is a look at last week: Weekly inventory change (Jan. So, inventory falling looks normal.

Inventory 515

Inventory New Listings Mortgage Marketing 515

Housing Wire

APRIL 6, 2024

Weekly housing inventory data — both active inventory and new listings — are prone to one-week moves that deviate from a trend, especially if people are going Easter egg hunting. So, the fact that active inventory and new listings data fell last week isn’t a big deal.

Inventory 422

Inventory New Listings Mortgage Housing Market 422

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 4, 2024

How will mortgage rates impact seasonal inventory in 2024? In the last four years, we have had abnormal seasonal inventory data, meaning that the spring inventory bottom happens later in the year. This is due to demand rising late in one year, pushing through the early part of the next year and preventing inventory growth.

Inventory 493

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Housing Market 493

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 10, 2024

While weekly inventory is still falling, we have year-over-year growth in total active listing and new listings data. Price-cut percentage Every year, one-third of all homes take a price cut before selling — this is a traditional housing activity. Here is a look at last week: Weekly inventory change (Feb.

Inventory 500

Inventory New Listings Retail Mortgage 500

Housing Wire

MAY 21, 2023

It was a wild ride for the housing market last week! New listings data fell, however, active inventory grew. Here’s a quick rundown of the last week: Total active listings grew by 3,809 weekly, but new listings are still trending at all-time lows. Purchase application data fell 4.8% million.

Housing Market 477

Housing Market Marketing Inventory New Listings 477

Housing Wire

MARCH 16, 2024

Weekly housing inventory data The one positive story for me in housing this year is that inventory is growing year over year for both active inventory and new listing data. Last year, the seasonal inventory bottom happened on April 14, which was the the longest time to find a seasonal bottom ever.

Housing Market 433

Housing Market Inventory New Listings Marketing 433

Housing Wire

JANUARY 20, 2024

Housing inventory, new listing data and mortgage rates are all rising, but the price cut data percentages are falling. Weekly housing inventory data Here is a look at the first week of the year: Weekly inventory change (Jan. 12-19) : Inventory rose from 505,223 to 506,414 Same week last year (Jan.

Inventory 536

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Sellers 536

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 11, 2023

Total housing inventory growth has been slow in 2023, but with rising mortgage rates over the last few months, inventory has grown a bit faster than average. The question now is: Have we hit the seasonal peak in inventory for 2023? Last year, according to Altos Research , the seasonal peak for housing inventory was Oct.

Inventory 442

Inventory New Listings Mortgage Retail 442

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 25, 2023

However, the recent drop in housing inventory has more to do with seasonality factors than lower mortgage rates. Higher mortgage rates did push inventory higher during the seasonal period when it would normally be declining. The question now is what will inventory look like in the spring if mortgage rates keep falling?

Inventory 521

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Buyers 521

Housing Wire

JANUARY 13, 2024

Last week, housing inventory grew and the number of price cuts fell, which is expected at this time of the year. I hope the next thing we see is housing inventory grow at the level it typically does in January or February instead of being delayed until March or April. So let’s hope for more home sellers in 2024.

Inventory 519

Inventory New Listings Retail Mortgage 519

Housing Wire

JUNE 18, 2023

Active housing inventory grew while new listing data fell. Here’s a quick rundown of the last week: Active inventory grew 8,041 weekly. This dynamic changed the housing market from one where home sales were crashing to one that is now stabilized. I explain how this happened in this recent podcast.

Housing Market 451

Housing Market Marketing Inventory New Listings 451

Housing Wire

MAY 14, 2023

The rise of active listings in this spring housing market reminds me of a zombie slowly rising from its grave. Yes, we found the seasonal bottom for housing inventory on April 14, but this year’s rise in active listings has been tepid at best. This doesn’t appear to be the case for 2023. million.

Housing Market 419

Housing Market Marketing Inventory New Listings 419

Housing Wire

MAY 28, 2023

Debt-ceiling drama pushed bond yields up last week, taking mortgage rates to a new 2023 high in the middle of the spring home-selling season. Active housing inventory , thankfully, saw some decent growth last week. Weekly housing inventory The growth in active listing inventory has been tepid this year.

Housing Market 487

Housing Market Mortgage Marketing Inventory 487

Housing Wire

APRIL 9, 2023

The housing market welcomed the news of lower mortgage rates last week after four reports showed that the labor market isn’t as tight as it seems and that the fear of 1970s-entrenched inflation was a lousy narrative. Active inventory rose by 823 single-family homes and new listing data is trending at all-time lows.

Housing Market 538

Housing Market Marketing Mortgage Inventory 538

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 28, 2023

31, 2022, that mortgage rates would hit 8% in 2023, you would reasonably assume housing inventory would sky rocket higher, home prices would fall noticeably, and the number of price cuts would be higher year over year. Last year, the seasonal peak for inventory was Oct. Weekly inventory change (Oct.

Inventory 490

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Marketing 490

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 7, 2023

Unfortunately, those higher mortgage rates didn’t spur inventory growth this week, so we didn’t even get the benefit we would usually see when rates rise. Not only has that not happened, but in the last two weeks, with mortgage rates pushing even higher, active inventory only grew by 2,286 single-family homes.

Inventory 449

Inventory New Listings Mortgage Marketing 449

Housing Wire

AUGUST 27, 2023

Did the recent move in higher mortgage rates impact the new listings data more than normal? I hope this isn’t the case, but we had a noticeable move lower in new listings last week. Weekly active listings rose by only 6,618. The Fed spoke at Jackson Hole last Friday but that didn’t move mortgage rates much.

New Listings 361

New Listings Mortgage Inventory Marketing 361

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 10, 2023

Last week we saw a noticeable decline in new listings and active inventory was barely positive. Does this mean housing inventory has begun its seasonal decline? Last year, we saw an active listing decline in the same week but then listing growth continued until Oct.

Inventory 450

Inventory New Listings Retail Mortgage 450

Housing Wire

JULY 30, 2023

Tracking housing inventory this summer is like watching a zombie slowly walking on the beach. Last week inventory growth dropped and new listing data declined again. Instead, new listings data had a small decline last week. The week ahead: It’s jobs week!

Housing Market 344

Housing Market Marketing Inventory New Listings 344

Housing Wire

AUGUST 6, 2023

The housing inventory data from last week makes me wonder if we are starting the seasonal decline in active listings in August. Saying that the housing inventory growth in 2023 has been disappointing is an understatement. Then the growth rate was so slow that we had weeks of negative year-over-year inventory data.

Inventory 363

Inventory New Listings Mortgage Housing Market 363