Housing Wire

MARCH 30, 2024

The best housing story in 2024 is that inventory is growing — both active inventory and new listings. With mortgage rates at the current levels, inventory is still below my expectations, but it’s still such a positive story that I had to discuss it on CNBC last week. 2022: 17.2%

Inventory 417

Inventory New Listings Mortgage Housing Market 417

Housing Wire

JANUARY 28, 2024

Weekly housing inventory data Here is a look at last week: Weekly inventory change (Jan. 19-26) : Inventory fell from 506,414 to 503,233 Same week last year (Jan. Weekly housing inventory data Here is a look at last week: Weekly inventory change (Jan. So, inventory falling looks normal.

Inventory 516

Inventory New Listings Mortgage Marketing 516

Housing Wire

MARCH 2, 2024

The mortgage rate lockdown premise says that if rates rise, inventory can’t grow meaningfully. Let’s take a look at the inventory data this year to test this premise, since for many months it has been a working theory of mine that new listings data behavior last year marked a bottom and even going into 2024 we should see more sellers.

Inventory 532

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Housing Market 532

Housing Wire

APRIL 6, 2024

Weekly housing inventory data — both active inventory and new listings — are prone to one-week moves that deviate from a trend, especially if people are going Easter egg hunting. So, the fact that active inventory and new listings data fell last week isn’t a big deal.

Inventory 433

Inventory New Listings Mortgage Housing Market 433

Housing Wire

JANUARY 20, 2024

Housing inventory, new listing data and mortgage rates are all rising, but the price cut data percentages are falling. Weekly housing inventory data Here is a look at the first week of the year: Weekly inventory change (Jan. 12-19) : Inventory rose from 505,223 to 506,414 Same week last year (Jan.

Inventory 539

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Sellers 539

Housing Wire

APRIL 23, 2023

Since 2020, the seasonal bottom for housing inventory has arrived several months later than normal, making it more complicated to track housing inventory data. Still, we have some promising signs that we might have finally hit the inventory bottom for 2023.

Inventory 544

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 544

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 4, 2024

How will mortgage rates impact seasonal inventory in 2024? In the last four years, we have had abnormal seasonal inventory data, meaning that the spring inventory bottom happens later in the year. This is due to demand rising late in one year, pushing through the early part of the next year and preventing inventory growth.

Inventory 501

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Housing Market 501

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 25, 2023

However, the recent drop in housing inventory has more to do with seasonality factors than lower mortgage rates. Higher mortgage rates did push inventory higher during the seasonal period when it would normally be declining. The question now is what will inventory look like in the spring if mortgage rates keep falling?

Inventory 527

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Buyers 527

Housing Wire

JANUARY 13, 2024

Last week, housing inventory grew and the number of price cuts fell, which is expected at this time of the year. I hope the next thing we see is housing inventory grow at the level it typically does in January or February instead of being delayed until March or April. So let’s hope for more home sellers in 2024. 2022 21.7%

Inventory 524

Inventory New Listings Retail Mortgage 524

Housing Wire

APRIL 30, 2023

The spring housing market music is playing, and purchase application data and active listing inventory rose together last week. The fear of not having an increase in inventory this spring should be put to rest. After the last few weeks , we can put that fear aside: we are finally getting the seasonal increase in active listing.

Inventory 513

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 513

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 10, 2024

While weekly inventory is still falling, we have year-over-year growth in total active listing and new listings data. A perfect example was in 2022: when housing inventory rose faster as demand crashed, the percentage of price cuts rose faster. Here is a look at last week: Weekly inventory change (Feb.

Inventory 505

Inventory New Listings Retail Mortgage 505

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 11, 2023

Total housing inventory growth has been slow in 2023, but with rising mortgage rates over the last few months, inventory has grown a bit faster than average. The question now is: Have we hit the seasonal peak in inventory for 2023? Last year, according to Altos Research , the seasonal peak for housing inventory was Oct.

Inventory 453

Inventory New Listings Mortgage Retail 453

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 28, 2023

31, 2022, that mortgage rates would hit 8% in 2023, you would reasonably assume housing inventory would sky rocket higher, home prices would fall noticeably, and the number of price cuts would be higher year over year. Last year, the seasonal peak for inventory was Oct. Weekly inventory change (Oct. Weekly inventory change (Oct.

Inventory 496

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Marketing 496

Housing Wire

AUGUST 27, 2023

Did the recent move in higher mortgage rates impact the new listings data more than normal? I hope this isn’t the case, but we had a noticeable move lower in new listings last week. Weekly active listings rose by only 6,618. The Fed spoke at Jackson Hole last Friday but that didn’t move mortgage rates much.

New Listings 365

New Listings Mortgage Inventory Marketing 365

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 10, 2023

Last week we saw a noticeable decline in new listings and active inventory was barely positive. Does this mean housing inventory has begun its seasonal decline? Last year, we saw an active listing decline in the same week but then listing growth continued until Oct. However, one week doesn’t make a trend.

Inventory 463

Inventory New Listings Retail Mortgage 463

Housing Wire

JULY 9, 2023

The slow zombie crawl of housing inventory went lower last week as inventory was negative week to week. As we can see in the chart below, it’s been so slow that year-over-year inventory is now negative versus 2022. This is truly a savagely unhealthy housing market as we have too many people chasing too few homes.

Inventory 462

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 462

Housing Wire

MAY 7, 2023

Just when I thought it was safe to say we were getting more traditional spring housing inventory , we hit a snag last week, as active inventory and new listings declined. Weekly housing inventory The numbers this week are unfortunate: inventory should be growing like it does at this time every year.

Inventory 483

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 483

Housing Wire

APRIL 16, 2023

The seasonal housing inventory bottom evaded us again last week as active listings fell and new listing inventory decreased. Here’s a quick rundown of the last week: Active inventory fell 5,383 last week, and new listing data is still trending at all-time lows in 2023. The answer is no!

Inventory 527

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 527

Housing Wire

JUNE 11, 2023

After seeing disappointing inventory growth two weeks ago , which I chalked up to the Memorial Day holiday, I was hoping for a big push in active listings last week, but that didn’t happen. Here’s a quick rundown of the last week: Active inventory grew 6,722 weekly. First, it took the longest time in U.S.

Inventory 487

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 487

Housing Wire

MARCH 6, 2023

The housing market faced some serious obstacles last week as the 10-year yield broke over 4%, mortgage rates rose to over 7%, purchase apps fell again and we are still trying to find the elusive seasonal bottom for housing inventory. I discussed my theory on why inventory bottoms out later in the year on this HousingWire Daily podcast.

Inventory 441

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 441

Housing Wire

AUGUST 20, 2023

Last week, mortgage rates hit a 21st-century high, the 10-year yield closed slightly higher than my peak forecast for 2023 , and housing inventory growth was still slow. Weekly active listings rose by only 4,401. Will higher rates extend the inventory season, or are we going into the traditional seasonal decline?

Inventory 368

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Sellers 368

Housing Wire

JUNE 25, 2023

Summer is here, and housing inventory is finally growing! The spring housing inventory was like a zombie rising from the grave, very slow, but the summer is showing some promise and let’s hope it continues. Here’s a quick rundown of the last week: Active inventory grew 8,886 weekly.

Inventory 404

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 404

Housing Wire

JULY 2, 2023

Housing inventory finally broke under 2022 levels last week. To give you an idea how different this year is from last year, last week in 2022, active listings grew 30,940 while this year they only grew 5,848. Since May 15, that trend has continued to the point that inventory in America is now negative year over year.

Inventory 449

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 449

Housing Wire

APRIL 3, 2023

Housing demand grew and inventory levels fell again while mortgage rates rose. Active inventory fell by 3,141, and new listing data fell again and is still trending at all-time lows. The answer is no, because active listings fell to a new low last week for 2023, so we have to wait and see if April will be the month.

Inventory 475

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 475

Housing Wire

JULY 23, 2023

The slow rise of housing inventory this year has made the existing home sales market savagely unhealthy again. However, last week was good; we had less inventory growth than I would like to see, but it’s better than the past few weeks. But last week did see some growth in active listings, even though it’s less than I was hoping for.

Inventory 362

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 362

Housing Wire

MARCH 26, 2023

These events led to lower mortgage rates and increased purchase application data last week, but decreased housing inventory. Active inventory fell 1,109, and new listing data made a lovely comeback week to week but was still noticeably down year over year. In a regular market, they would be closer to 5.25%.

Inventory 438

Inventory Housing Market Marketing Mortgage 438

Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2024

Weekly housing inventory data The best housing story for 2024 so far is that inventory is growing yearly. The growth isn’t just in active inventory but also new listings. Right now we are a tad below the levels we saw in 2022 before mortgage rates spiked over 6%. When rates fall, they go lower than an average year.

Mortgage 506

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Housing Market 506

Housing Wire

MAY 15, 2024

After an initial rush to get to market in Q2 2022, new listings volume fell precipitously. In July 2022, new listings volume per week dropped from 90,000 at the end of June to approximately 74,000 just after the July 4th holiday. By Q1 2015, more than 60% of American homeowners with mortgages had rates locked in under 5%.

Mortgage 345

Mortgage New Listings Inventory Sellers 345

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 18, 2022

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported today on two trends in existing home sales that we have seen for many months now: sales are declining while total inventory data has fallen directly for the three straight months. Total housing inventory fell in this report, the third report in a row that shows total inventory has decreased.

Inventory 462

Inventory Marketing Housing Market New Listings 462

Housing Wire

MARCH 16, 2024

Weekly housing inventory data The one positive story for me in housing this year is that inventory is growing year over year for both active inventory and new listing data. Last year, the seasonal inventory bottom happened on April 14, which was the the longest time to find a seasonal bottom ever.

Housing Market 446

Housing Market Inventory New Listings Marketing 446

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 9, 2023

Weekly housing inventory data We will start with the price cut data percentage because it deserves a detailed explanation. Now lets take a look at the weekly inventory data. Last year, according to Altos Research , the seasonal peak for housing inventory was Oct. Weekly inventory change (Dec.

Mortgage 523

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Sellers 523

Housing Wire

MAY 11, 2024

Weekly housing inventory data Last week was another week that missed my inventory growth model with higher rates. I am always looking for weekly inventory growth between 11,000 and 17,000 when rates are over 7.25%. Rates have fallen recently and inventory growth was higher last week than the previous week.

Mortgage 390

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Housing Market 390

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 17, 2024

Weekly housing inventory data The best part of 2024 for me is watching housing inventory grow year-over-year. We should see the seasonal bottom soon and then the traditional increase in active inventory to match the growth in new listings data. Here is a look at last week: Weekly inventory change (Feb.

Mortgage 514

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Housing Market 514

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 2, 2023

Weekly housing inventory data It’s December, which means the seasonal decline in housing inventory is well underway, which means in 2023, I have batted a whopping zero on how much I predicted weekly inventory would grow with higher mortgage rates. Now, we see the seasonal inventory decline. Weekly inventory change (Nov.

Mortgage 542

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Sellers 542

Housing Wire

MARCH 9, 2024

If so, what will this do to inventory levels? Weekly housing inventory data The positive story for housing in 2024 has been the inventory growth we have seen year-over-year. We survived jobs week and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell talking to Congress, with mortgage rates ending the week below 7%.

Mortgage 451

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Housing Market 451

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 24, 2023

On housing inventory , new listings data saw a small decline last week, but active listings grew at a healthy clip. We have had some volatile weekly numbers in the new listings data recently, but even with the mortgage rate spike, the decline was orderly, as it has been all year.

Mortgage 426

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Housing Market 426

Housing Wire

JANUARY 6, 2024

However, one key for 2024 is finding the seasonal bottom in housing inventory sooner rather than later. We want to see active inventory bottom out in January and February — not March and April. Weekly housing inventory data Here is a look at the first week of the year: Weekly inventory change (Dec.

Inventory 541

Inventory New Listings Housing Market Mortgage 541